Better Rookie Season Stats Griffin or Luck?

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

btw-
thanks for getting the thread back on track

Of course it takes more then a rookie season to predict or know what type a QB a rookie will become.(I believe it takes about 36 starts depending on schematic continuity)
But, again I'm not asking for a career prediction based on this season.
I'm asking for opinion on whether or not there is a benchmark level of production Luck(i.e. the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway) needs to reach THIS season to justify the hype.

And if someone thinks there is a statistical benchmark what is it?

Maybe there is no rookie year benchmark for some people.
Maybe some think regardless of his rookie year production the hype is warranted?

Maybe some think production on par with Blaine Gabbert is good enough to warrant his hype or maybe some others think production on must be at least on par with Andy Dalton?

Its just something I'm curious about that I didn't think warrants its own thread, so I figured it fit here.*shrugs*

It's fine to put it in here, I was just saying why I thought the two questions kept getting mixed.

I don't think 1st year production means much to long term prospect status. We all know Peyton had more INTs than TD's, and my first memory of Elway is him lining up behind the tackle not the center. The question will be how he masters and runs the offense, something neither ADalton or CNewton did, they just let their athleticism and ability show through, and their coaches allowed that to happen.

Originally Posted by 30gut

Cool, what do you think the ballpark will be? Close or wide margin?

Not very good at stats, just because there are so many variables, but here is a shot at it:

Luck 62% completion, 3100 yds (lots of completions with very little YAC), 23 TD/22 INT, 300 yds rushing, 4 Rushing TD

Griffin 67% completion, 3800 yds( some good YAC from Santana and FD/Cooley) 26TD/14INT, 700 yd rushing, 5 Rushing TD

Originally Posted by 30gut

When I look at the success of Dalton and Newton in their new schemes without the benefit of an offseason, I have a hard time considering everything being new a stumbling block.
I think the Colts have replaced almost as many pieces as they've lost and still have enough pieces to field a quality offense.

See above. I think people forget the Defenses had no offseason either. The fact that the Colts are coming in with a whole new staff, and booted many of their starting offensive players, Saturday, Clark, Garcon, simply means that more players are learning and starting for the first time. By definition that means that many players are learning the speed of the NFL game for the first time, and that should have an impact on the offensive output. You didn't have that in either Carolina or Cincinatti last year, there were a few pieces replaced, but not wholesale purging like Indy.

[30gut]

I thought I replied to this earlier:

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Not very good at stats, just because there are so many variables, but here is a shot at it:

Luck 62% completion, 3100 yds (lots of completions with very little YAC), 23 TD/22 INT, 300 yds rushing, 4 Rushing TD

Griffin 67% completion, 3800 yds( some good YAC from Santana and FD/Cooley) 26TD/14INT, 700 yd rushing, 5 Rushing TD

Wow, I thought I was bullish on Griffin but those numbers would rock.
I gotta say though I don't think Griff is gonna run enough to gain 700 yds and I don't think he'll complete such a high % in his rookie year.
I think/hope Griff is gonna be vertically aggressive in the passing game and that is probably gonna prevent him from posting a high comp%.

I guess I should put some figures up also:

Luck 62% 3,800 25 TDs 18 INTs 250 rush 3 TDs
Griffin 60% 3,600 22 TDs 14 INTs 400 rush 5 TDs