My evaluation of Shanahan starts now

[GTripp0012]

I can at least entertain the argument that Shanahan has brought something important to the team that was lacking with Jim Zorn, even if it hasn't shown in the standings. But I think the discussion should begin there, and back with the decisions made two years ago that shaped this team to be the way it is today, and not with a total write off of the last two seasons.

The problem is that if the Redskins underachieve again this year and go 6-10, then some people are going to claim that no one could have seen that coming and we need a longer time period to evaluate Mr. Shanahan.

But the truth is: the reason that no one is picking the Redskins to win the division in Shanahan's third year is because we've seen over the last two years that things aren't different than they were under Zorn, so we're looking for small positive signs from RG3 et al, instead of big things from our football team.

[44 goes 50 gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But the truth is: the reason that no one is picking the Redskins to win the division in Shanahan's third year is because we've seen over the last two years that things aren't different than they were under Zorn, so we're looking for small positive signs from RG3 et al, instead of big things from our football team.

That isn't even remotely the truth.

The reason no ones picking the Skins to win the division is that most people are observant enough to realize that the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys all have established QB's and are all more stocked with skilled players further along in their development, and have had better records. and this makes it likely that they will win more games than the Skins. It doesn't guarantee it of course and this year is a lot more up in the air. Who knows, I could see the Eagles and Cowboys self destructing (or wining the division for that matter they are both very volatile teams) Along with that most observant people can see the Skins have a rookie QB and are still in a rebuild, and on paper are less stocked with players (although the gap is getting smaller for sure).

Things aren't different? IMO Stupid discipline penalties, false starts, delay of game and the like have declined remarkably. I wont look the stats up but I believe they have declined a lot. Have the personnel decisions gotten better? Well arguable because of McNabb and Brown, but at least in the second year onward for the most part they seem to have. Are the "inmates" still "running the asylum"? Are we seeing pampered prima donnas who don't have to practice and a clear lack of competition in camp or a bunch of silly dramas? No not post Fat Albert, Snyderatto's golden poster boy for why the last ten years failed. Have they made any Jason Taylor like trades? Well McNabb pretty much so yeah, still not sure how much of that was Snyder pushing for jersey sales versus Shanahan wanting it... Never seemed like a Mike Shanahan move to me. How about bringing in WAY OVERPAID old has been free agents? No in fact they have been good about getting younger FA's and concentrating on drafts. Are they still taking upside in the draft and disregarding character and work ethic almost entirely? No it doesn't appear that way, it looks like the opposite.

The Team has a worse record post Zorn for pretty clear reasons, unless of course you think Vinny and Zorn were better at their jobs than the current regime? It seems easy to observe that they lost a number of decent but past their prime Veteran players especially on the OL, at the same time that a bunch of Snyderatto's terrible picks all washed out... over the course of a couple years. While a few GOOD vets and picks that they happened on to by accident have become free agents and moved on.

They are three years "post Snyderatto" and the only remarkable draft picks left on the team picked by them are Brian Orakpo and Davis. Talk about a complete failure at every level.

IMO the argument could be made that not going 2-14 or 3-13 the past couple years is a minor accomplishment (or a hindrance to the rebuild depending on how you want to look at it) especially given how easy it is for a team to fall hard when adversity sets in (See the Colts).

So it's pretty clear with hindsight that whether they turn out to be successful or not, the Shanahan's jumped into a plane that was in a nose dive plummeting towards the earth and are still trying overcome downward momentum to level off. If they can manage to pull it out of the dive before it smashes them into the ground remains to be seen.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 44 goes 50 gut

That isn't even remotely the truth.

The reason no ones picking the Skins to win the division is that most people are observant enough to realize that the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys all have established QB's and are all more stocked with skilled players further along in their development, and have had better records. and this makes it likely that they will win more games than the Skins. It doesn't guarantee it of course and this year is a lot more up in the air. Who knows, I could see the Eagles and Cowboys self destructing (or wining the division for that matter they are both very volatile teams) Along with that most observant people can see the Skins have a rookie QB and are still in a rebuild, and on paper are less stocked with players (although the gap is getting smaller for sure).

Things aren't different? IMO Stupid discipline penalties, false starts, delay of game and the like have declined remarkably. I wont look the stats up but I believe they have declined a lot. Have the personnel decisions gotten better? Well arguable because of McNabb and Brown, but at least in the second year onward for the most part they seem to have. Are the "inmates" still "running the asylum"? Are we seeing pampered prima donnas who don't have to practice and a clear lack of competition in camp or a bunch of silly dramas? No not post Fat Albert, Snyderatto's golden poster boy for why the last ten years failed. Have they made any Jason Taylor like trades? Well McNabb pretty much so yeah, still not sure how much of that was Snyder pushing for jersey sales versus Shanahan wanting it... Never seemed like a Mike Shanahan move to me. How about bringing in WAY OVERPAID old has been free agents? No in fact they have been good about getting younger FA's and concentrating on drafts. Are they still taking upside in the draft and disregarding character and work ethic almost entirely? No it doesn't appear that way, it looks like the opposite.

The Team has a worse record post Zorn for pretty clear reasons, unless of course you think Vinny and Zorn were better at their jobs than the current regime? It seems easy to observe that they lost a number of decent but past their prime Veteran players especially on the OL, at the same time that a bunch of Snyderatto's terrible picks all washed out... over the course of a couple years. While a few GOOD vets and picks that they happened on to by accident have become free agents and moved on.

They are three years "post Snyderatto" and the only remarkable draft picks left on the team picked by them are Brian Orakpo and Davis. Talk about a complete failure at every level.

IMO the argument could be made that not going 2-14 or 3-13 the past couple years is a minor accomplishment (or a hindrance to the rebuild depending on how you want to look at it) especially given how easy it is for a team to fall hard when adversity sets in (See the Colts).

So it's pretty clear with hindsight that whether they turn out to be successful or not, the Shanahan's jumped into a plane that was in a nose dive plummeting towards the earth and are still trying overcome downward momentum to level off. If they can manage to pull it out of the dive before it smashes them into the ground remains to be seen.

I think you make a couple of really good arguments (strength of the division, improved discipline with regard to having dumb penalties), but ultimately, it's based around the conclusion that Shanahan is/has been a good coach here, when all the evidence in the world is telling us not to make the conclusion.

Teams go worst to first all the time. In fact, a better predictor of future win loss record than past win loss record is simply .500. Most teams start right in the middle of the pack every year instead of at the bottom. The Redskins aren't an exception.

The reason the Redskins finished at the bottom in 2010 and 2011, as they did in 2009, is because they are still doing a couple of things that are fundamentally wrong. 2012 is a new year and they are not resigned to being worse than the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants. But if we are expecting them to lag behind, it is not because of the past. It's because the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are doing something consistently (particularly recently) each season that the Redskins are not.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I can at least entertain the argument that Shanahan has brought something important to the team that was lacking with Jim Zorn, even if it hasn't shown in the standings. But I think the discussion should begin there, and back with the decisions made two years ago that shaped this team to be the way it is today, and not with a total write off of the last two seasons.

The problem is that if the Redskins underachieve again this year and go 6-10, then some people are going to claim that no one could have seen that coming and we need a longer time period to evaluate Mr. Shanahan.

But the truth is: the reason that no one is picking the Redskins to win the division in Shanahan's third year is because we've seen over the last two years that things aren't different than they were under Zorn, so we're looking for small positive signs from RG3 et al, instead of big things from our football team.

Yes, things are much different with Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan than they were under Vinny Cerratto and Jim Zorn. First thing is since Allen and Shanahan came on board, there has been tremendous overhaul to the roster two years and counting. The Redskins had a average draft in Mike Shanahan's first year, and the last two drafts they have drafted extremely well. One of the reasons the Redskins struggled on offense last year was the QB play. With RG3 although he's a rookie, the quarterback play will be much improved. I've been on NFL.com and I've seen what the so-called experts are predicting for the Redskins. Some analysts have the Redskins going 7-9. Other have the Redskins being 8-8. And one said 6-10.

I think they are all wrong. In addition to those draft picks, Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan has signed some key free agents on the offensive side of the ball too. Under Grossman and Beck at quarterback, the Redskins finished 16th in total offense. With Griffin III at quarterback along with Garcon, Moss, Hankerson, J. Morgan, Fred Davis, Niles Paul, I expect that offensive ranking to be greater than it was last season. Include an above average running game, and this Redskins offense can be in the top 10 this season.

I expect at worse the Redskins to be 8-8. At best they are at least a 10-6 team or better.