Scared? Or Confident? Redskins v Eagles Prediction Thread

[Skinzman]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I have come to think there is absolutely no way that Luck will ROY. Fact of the matter is he isn't even 2nd best, and with both Seattle and Washington in the hunt at this point his biggest selling point (led his team to playoffs) is minimized.

I tend to believe it's a 2 game playoff (i may have said this before). Sunday night, Russell Wilson will put his bid for it on display, and if he shines (like I expect) that will have him in the front.

The following week, one of 3 games will be flexed (Hou v Indy, Cinci v Balt, or Dal v Skins), unless dallas and us both lose, it will be our game, and Griffin will make his case for it. For a reminder of that, look at his game when the Heisman was in question.

As for Luck, he is 31st in the league in passer rating. Read that again --- 31st. He is tied for 1st in INT's: Griffin has 4, Wilson has 9, Luck has 18. He is 33rd, right 33rd, in completion %, Finally he is 17th in yards per attempt. If he gets it, it's kinda a sham.

Total QBR Griffin 6, Wilson 8, Luck 12
on qbr, can anyone explain the Penalty EPA. Luck has a huge Penalty EPA compared to any other qb (+16.1, Griffin for comparison is +7, and Wilson is +6), I think if you changed the +16 to +7, Luck would drop even further, I just don't know what causes + penalty epa's.

QBR has a fairly strange ratings system compared to other metrics. One of the things it does is weight individual plays. Giving bonus points if its an important time of the game. So a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 8 for a first down isnt worth a whole lot in the 1st quarter. But in the 4th quarter when you are down by 7, it gets a ton of bonus points. Since Luck has a lot of come from behind wins in the 4th quarter, he gets a lot of bonus points for QBR.

Since each play is watched and graded, it is also somewhat subjective. Luck may have a lot of int's, but if the people grading the play deem it to be the WR's fault, Luck doesnt get knocked down (or very little) on QBR.