Seahawks Redskins Rookie Showdown

[MTK]

Oddsmakers don't set the spreads based on who they think is better necessarily, it's all about getting as even amount of $$ as possible bet on both teams. That's why the spread fluctuates, if too much action is going down on one team the spread changes to account for that and to get more $$ bet the other way.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Oddsmakers don't set the spreads based on who they think is better necessarily, it's all about getting as even amount of $$ as possible bet on both teams. That's why the spread fluctuates, if too much action is going down on one team the spread changes to account for that and to get more $$ bet the other way.

They do on Monday. Then as $ comes in the line will move around. The line opened at Washington -1, which is still saying they think Seattle is better. The money so far is on Seattle which is why it's moved 4 points.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

They do on Monday. Then as $ comes in the line will move around. The line opened at Washington -1, which is still saying they think Seattle is better. The money so far is on Seattle which is why it's moved 4 points.

No, they don't.

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

HowStuffWorks "How Sports Betting Works"

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

They do on Monday. Then as $ comes in the line will move around. The line opened at Washington -1, which is still saying they think Seattle is better. The money so far is on Seattle which is why it's moved 4 points.

No. On Monday they set the line where they think they will receive even action. Part of their evaluations may include team analysis but mostly it is based on superficial stuff that they know most bettors will use in their analysis plus spread history. So the line starts where they think the bettors will run action...or who bettors think is the better team. Not who they think is actually better.

[CultBrennan59]

I saw today that the redskins are 20-1 favorites to win the super bowl. Only the Bengals and Cardinals have worse odds..

[44ever]

Redskins' RG3 crashes Shanahan's news conference - seattlepi.com

[NYCskinfan82]

We need 2 play a good game.

[Chico23231]

more i think about this match up, the more I really like it for us. Cant wait til Sunday

[Lotus]

I re-watched the Panthers game to remind myself of what life was like before The Streak. Some observations:

1) Our schemes on both offense and defense now are much more creative
2) Our receivers are dropping the ball much less
3) Believe it or not, Tyler Polumbus is playing better. Although he still gets run over, the frequency is less
4) We haven't blown as many coverages and so are not giving up 80 yard plays
5) We have significantly cleaned up our act in terms of penalties

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by Lotus

I re-watched the Panthers game to remind myself of what life was like before The Streak. Some observations:

1) Our schemes on both offense and defense now are much more creative
2) Our receivers are dropping the ball much less
3) Believe it or not, Tyler Polumbus is playing better. Although he still gets run over, the frequency is less
4) We haven't blown as many coverages and so are not giving up 80 yard plays
5) We have significantly cleaned up our act in terms of penalties

This is key. Our receivers are making plays. Straight ballin at times if you ask me. Ike Hilliard has done a great job with this corps throughout the turnaround. The routes are run with confidence- and to tell you the truth- I actually attribute that to RG3 scrambling a bit less.

I'm basing this off intuition and intuition alone- but I'd like to look at the amount of time RG3 has the ball vs. earlier in the year. I feel like the timing of the offense is more in step, and that helps the receivers run efficient routes.

That's also why these Seattle corners scare me. They're big and scary. They will bump some of our smaller receivers and knock them off their routes. We will really need them to step up and get physical. They will need to maintain their routes and not let them get in their heads. - and use our skill- SPEED- to beat them.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by RobH4413

This is key. Our receivers are making plays. Straight ballin at times if you ask me. Ike Hilliard has done a great job with this corps throughout the turnaround. The routes are run with confidence- and to tell you the truth- I actually attribute that to RG3 scrambling a bit less.

I'm basing this off intuition and intuition alone- but I'd like to look at the amount of time RG3 has the ball vs. earlier in the year. I feel like the timing of the offense is more in step, and that helps the receivers run efficient routes.

That's also why these Seattle corners scare me. They're big and scary. They will bump some of our smaller receivers and knock them off their routes. We will really need them to step up and get physical. They will need to maintain their routes and not let them get in their heads. - and use our skill- SPEED- to beat them.

They have two good corners. We have more receivers that have been playing at a high level. Garcon, Moss, Hankerson, Morgan, Robinson. Paulson has really stepped up and improved his receiving skills since Fred Davis went out. If they do shut down our run game and two two corners, I think we can work 3 and 4 wide receiver sets and find holes in their zone coverage (I am assuming they will still play a zone).

I think that's why Detroit who was only a 4 win team beat Seattle. They are obviously a passing team and although Calvin Johnson was taken away, the rest of the receivers stepped up and had big days. RGIII has shown he can make all the throws so I think this is something we can cope with, should they be successful at slowing our run game (which I think is unlikely) and taking Garcon and our #2 out with Browner and Sherman.

[los panda]

i know somebody already posted a link to the story, but here is a link to the video

The Redskins Blog | Griffin III: Newest Member Of The Media?

[SkinzWin]

Some stats I put together.

Points allow by Seattle Defense at home and away, [Points scored by Seattle Offense at home and away], { Rushing Yards by Skittles Beast Mode}

At home:
7 - Dallas -------[27]-----{122}
14 - GB ---------[24]------{98}
23 - NE ---------[24]------{41}
20 - Minnesota -[30]-----{124}
7 - NYJ ---------[28]------{124}
0 - Arizona -----[58]-----{128}
13- San Fran ---[42]-----{111}
13 - St. Louis --[20]-----{100}

Away:
20 - Arizona (Loss) ----[16]-----{85}
19 - St. Louis (Loss) --[13]-----{118}
12- Carolina -----------[16]-----{85}
13 - San Fran (Loss) --[6]------{103}
28 Detroit (Loss) ------[24]-----{105}
24 - Miami (Loss) -----[21]-----{46}
17 - Chicago (OT Win) [23]-----{87}
17 - Buffalo ------------[50]----{113}

18.8 Points per game allowed away
12.1 Points per game allowed at home

21.1 Points per game scored away
31.6 Points per game scored at home

92.8 Rushing yards per game by Skittles Beast Mode away
106 Rushing yards per game by Skittles Beast Mode home

Data Analysis Summary:
1) Seahawks allow approx. 7 points more per game on the road than at home.
2) Seahawks score approx. 10.5 less points on the road than at home.
3) Skittles Beast Mode has approx. 13 less rushing yards per game on the road than at home.
4) Seahawks points scored both home and away have trended up toward the end of the season.
5) Seahawks did not lose at home. All losses came on the road.
6) Redskins need to score in the mid 20's to have a good chance to beat the Seahawks.

Game prediction: Redskins 24-Seahawks 17

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

Some stats I put together.

Points allow by Seattle Defense at home and away, [Points scored by Seattle Offense at home and away], { Rushing Yards by Skittles Beast Mode}

At home:
7 - Dallas -------[27]-----{122}
14 - GB ---------[24]------{98}
23 - NE ---------[24]------{41}
20 - Minnesota -[30]-----{124}
7 - NYJ ---------[28]------{124}
0 - Arizona -----[58]-----{128}
13- San Fran ---[42]-----{111}
13 - St. Louis --[20]-----{100}

Away:
20 - Arizona (Loss) ----[16]-----{85}
19 - St. Louis (Loss) --[13]-----{118}
12- Carolina -----------[16]-----{85}
13 - San Fran (Loss) --[6]------{103}
28 Detroit (Loss) ------[24]-----{105}
24 - Miami (Loss) -----[21]-----{46}
17 - Chicago (OT Win) [23]-----{87}
17 - Buffalo ------------[50]----{113}

18.8 Points per game allowed away
12.1 Points per game allowed at home

21.1 Points per game scored away
31.6 Points per game scored at home

92.8 Rushing yards per game by Skittles Beast Mode away
106 Rushing yards per game by Skittles Beast Mode home

Data Analysis Summary:
1) Seahawks allow approx. 7 points more per game on the road than at home.
2) Seahawks score approx. 10.5 less points on the road than at home.
3) Skittles Beast Mode has approx. 13 less rushing yards per game on the road than at home.
4) Seahawks points scored both home and away have trended up toward the end of the season.
5) Seahawks did not lose at home. All losses came on the road.
6) Redskins need to score in the mid 20's to have a good chance to beat the Seahawks.

Game prediction: Redskins 24-Seahawks 17

Good work

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Good work

Thanks. Benefits of being a teacher and having two weeks off. Time is running out though..... UGH