Loose Change

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I also don't think anyone should be taking pride in being right on this issue.

Look, it takes guts to step outside of the box and try to develop a successful system where none has been developed before. I'm not going to bash Jsarno for trying to do to Roulette what I've been trying to do with football player eval for the last two years.

It, however, takes even more guts to admit that no matter how much thought you put into a system, that all the effort was for naught. People tend to develop psychological biases towards what they are doing, and it becomes temporarily impossible to think clearly and logically towards the situation.

You and I both know that he will come around eventually, and realize that he can't beat the odds in a large sample. You stated your position, backed it up with the cold facts, and then added your signature, and often unnecessary "charm" to your posts.

You are right, and he is wrong, but it's not his fault that this evolved into a pissing match.

But see, it's not about a pissing match and simply trying to win an argument. I've got better things to do. I'm honestly turned off by the fact that he's writing a book about it. To me, it's no better than the scam artists from Nigeria who write countless spam email messages to 75 year old women telling them that they've been granted a royal inheritance.

I'll add some of the Schneed charm here and there throughout the site, but I'm sure you'll recognize that this level of charm was very different. I see jsarno as a scam artist looking to write, publish, and sell a book based on a mathematical fallacy. When it comes down to it, it's morally wrong.

Being right or wrong isn't even priority one here for me. Doing right or wrong is. And if this thread helped to educate even one person on The Gambler's Fallacy, then good.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

But see, it's not about a pissing match and simply trying to win an argument. I've got better things to do. I'm honestly turned off by the fact that he's writing a book about it. To me, it's no better than the scam artists from Nigeria who write countless spam email messages to 75 year old women telling them that they've been granted a royal inheritance.

I'll add some of the Schneed charm here and there throughout the site, but I'm sure you'll recognize that this level of charm was very different. I see jsarno as a scam artist looking to write, publish, and sell a book based on a mathematical fallacy. When it comes down to it, it's morally wrong.

Being right or wrong isn't even priority one here for me. Doing right or wrong is. And if this thread helped to educate even one person on The Gambler's Fallacy, then good.

Like Smootsmack said, it takes a lot of work to publish a book when you have internal questions about the reception of your argument. Additionally, as you would probably say yourself, it's the consumers own damn fault for buying such a book when the Gambler's Fallacy is relatively common knowledge.

I'd say the (im)probability that jsarno is a scam artist who tried to post his knowingly false ideas on a public fourm (after 6,500 posts) free of charge before actually making the decision to publish borders on "insane", but then again I'm not the logical guru in this neck of the woods.

Maybe you did convince one person of the Gambler's Fallacy today, but if that person doesn't post under the alias "jsarno", then I doubt you were successful.

Anyway, I think it's high time to call a spade a spade. IMO, when jsarno tried to pull the "it's not always about stats" argument, he was probably trying to pull the quiet cop out, because we all know it IS about stats when it comes to Roulette. IMO, the competence of this thread died right there, and since then, it's really been an unwarranted pissing match.

[DynamiteRave]

This thread is starting to end up like a car accident. Terrible but you can't help but rubberneck...

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by DynamiteRave

This thread is starting to end up like a car accident. Terrible but you can't help but rubberneck...

I want to see how many different topics we can come up with in one thread that bring it close to being locked...without actually locking it

[SmootSmack]

Something tells me he's not going to end up publishing the book (just my hunch).

Either way, I really think we can just drop it now.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Something tells me he's not going to end up publishing the book (just my hunch).

Either way, I really think we can just drop it now.

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

[DynamiteRave]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

Now if only there was a penny minimum roulette table!

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

Yes, but what happens if you take your pants off 10,000 times I keed, I keed

(please no videotapes)

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Yes, but what happens if you take your pants off 10,000 times I keed, I keed

(please no videotapes)

Didn't you hear? That's a proven method for enlarging your wee wee.

Too far?

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Didn't you hear? That's a proven method for enlarging your wee wee.

Too far?

Is "too far" some sort of slick double entendre?

[MTK]

Back on topic to the video if we can, I think it raises some interesting points that are worth discussing, and in the end I think the basic message is to question authority.

Personally I find the theory that United 93 was shot down to be very interesting. I dunno, the heroic story is nice for movies but I'm just not sure that I buy it.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Back on topic to the video if we can, I think it raises some interesting points that are worth discussing, and in the end I think the basic message is to question authority.

Personally I find the theory that United 93 was shot down to be very interesting. I dunno, the heroic story is nice for movies but I'm just not sure that I buy it.

It's interesting, but I think there is just too much evidence-even by the coroner who they "cite" (by chopping off portions of quotes of his), but never actually interview-to think there was some sort of conspiracy in play. I don't know maybe I'm just too close to this particular story to be very objective about it.

[cpayne5]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Back on topic to the video if we can, I think it raises some interesting points that are worth discussing, and in the end I think the basic message is to question authority.

Personally I find the theory that United 93 was shot down to be very interesting. I dunno, the heroic story is nice for movies but I'm just not sure that I buy it.

I think there is enough audio from both air traffic control communications and the phone calls the passengers were making to support the idea that the plane was not shot down.

The last article on this page is probably the best I've read, detailing the events that occurred on Flight 93.

September 11 News.com - Flight 93 - The Story of the Heroes of United Airlines Flight 93.

The heroes of Flight 93: Interviews with family and friends
detail the courage of everyday people.
By Kim Barker, Louise Kiernan, and Steve Mills © Chicago Tribune

[MTK]

Originally Posted by cpayne5

I think there is enough audio from both air traffic control communications and the phone calls the passengers were making to support the idea that the plane was not shot down.

The last article on this page is probably the best I've read, detailing the events that occurred on Flight 93.

September 11 News.com - Flight 93 - The Story of the Heroes of United Airlines Flight 93.

The heroes of Flight 93: Interviews with family and friends
detail the courage of everyday people.
By Kim Barker, Louise Kiernan, and Steve Mills © Chicago Tribune

good link but it really doesn't clear things up for me, I still think there are more questions than answers with what happened to United 93. There are some interesting questions raised here

[SmootSmack]

One thing I can't understand is why is there such a need to know? Why aren't the answers provided by the government, and other officials on site acceptable? I mean it just seems like some people are really pushing for some radical theory, but....Occam's Razor.