Cousins to start 2015 Season

[30gut]

Kirk Cousins teases me.

For me if I'm picking a QB to run Jay's offense I would choose Colt McCoy.
But there are throws that Kirk can make the McCoy just can't and some that he won't attempt.
Kirk has good NFL arm talent but Kirk might believe in arm a little too much.
He doesn't have the migh turnover % by accident.

But when Kirk is humming and the playcalling is on point? I dare say Kirk can look like Drew Brees (one of my favorite QBs in the league). I can tell by the playcalling that Jay/McVay have a lot faith in Kirk's ability but sometime they too are culpable in his failures by not protecting him with the run and putting too much on his shoulders via the passing game.

Even though between the Kirk and Colt I would choose Colt. I can see why Kirk has been given the shot and hope he can win some games.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Kirk has good NFL arm talent but Kirk might believe in arm a little too much.
He doesn't have the migh turnover % by accident.

But when Kirk is humming and the playcalling is on point? I dare say Kirk can look like Drew Brees (one of my favorite QBs in the league). I can tell by the playcalling that Jay/McVay have a lot faith in Kirk's ability but sometime they too are culpable in his failures by not protecting him with the run and putting too much on his shoulders via the passing game.

30, im glad to see you do see the positives with Kirk. I thought a few weeks ago you overly optimistic on RG3 and overly pessimistic on Kirk.

i 100% agree with your post. A radio talking head the other day said "its great when Kirk threads the needle on throws but sometimes he threads the needle too much". when kirk tries these "thread the needle" high risk high reward throws, sometimes a guy will be a second late or slip out of the break like grant did last week.

when kirk throws the ball before the receiver makes his break, the receiver can slip or be late to the spot, ball bounces up in the air = int.

like the TD throw crowder scored on, the ball was there in grants hands but he doesnt secure it (kinda tough catch but one that should be made) and the ball is tipped in the air, up for grabs. Fortunately crowder was there but usually that deep there are more defenders than receivers.

i really agree that they need to give kirk a run game and a lead. if all of his throws have to be perfect with anticipation, reading, timing and accuracy = ints will happen.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

30, im glad to see you do see the positives with Kirk. I thought a few weeks ago you overly optimistic on RG3 and overly pessimistic on Kirk.

I'm not sure why you think I wouldn't see positives or be overly pessimistic about Kirk?

Most people either don't know or ignore the fact that I said Griffin should have been cut at the end of the season prior to training camp. Many people in this forum (and this may or may not apply to you) but many assume that defense of inaccurate/incorrect statements about Griffin to equate to a dislike of Kirk. I just call it like I see. Just because I thought Griffin should have been cut doesn't mean I'm gonna agree with bandwagon echo chamber bashing.

At the end of the day I don't care who the QB is nor the style of football....provided we win.

[MTK]

Pretty sure SM's job does not entail media/drama control. He's here to manage the football ops. Allen and Wylie are the soap opera specialists.

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Pretty sure SM's job does not entail media/drama control. He's here to manage the football ops. Allen and Wylie are the soap opera specialists.

The problem here is that this organization does not speak with "one voice". Too many people have too much to say too often and, often, too soon. They need to get their act together before responding to any issue and after one designated spokesperson states the organization's position, everybody else should decline further comment on that issue.

It seems to me that the PR department stokes more brush fires than it puts out.

[Schneed10]

Since this is the Cousins thread, back to Cousins.

I just wanted to get into the numbers a little bit in an effort to find as much hope as I could. It's well documented that last year when Cousins had a poor game, things REALLY went south on him, which Jay attributed to mental toughness. Well the one game that really went bad was the Giants game in Week 4 where he had the 4 INTs and lost another fumble.

So well then, how does he do when things don't go south? Is he competitive?

In the other 5 games in which he played, he averaged 21 for 34 for 291 yards, 1.8 TDs per game, 1.0 INTs per game, and 1.2 sacks per game. Extrapolate that over the course of a 16-game season and you get a projected starting QB line of:

342 for 547, a 62.5% completion rate
4,649 yards, 29 TDs, 16 INTs, and 19 sacks taken

Now of course this is extrapolating a 5-game sample size, and there's selection bias here because I'm removing the Giants game. But still I would take that performance happily, even though the 16 picks will still be among league leaders and mean we're only a mediocre team. Even with the picks, it would be positive progress at the QB spot.

So it seems Jay is onto something, getting Kirk past the mental hurdle of collapsing under adversity. If he's able to coach up that mental aspect of it, the Shanahans and Gruden both might be right in thinking he can be very good.

[Skinsfanatic]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Since this is the Cousins thread, back to Cousins.

I just wanted to get into the numbers a little bit in an effort to find as much hope as I could. It's well documented that last year when Cousins had a poor game, things REALLY went south on him, which Jay attributed to mental toughness. Well the one game that really went bad was the Giants game in Week 4 where he had the 4 INTs and lost another fumble.

So well then, how does he do when things don't go south? Is he competitive?

In the other 5 games in which he played, he averaged 21 for 34 for 291 yards, 1.8 TDs per game, 1.0 INTs per game, and 1.2 sacks per game. Extrapolate that over the course of a 16-game season and you get a projected starting QB line of:

342 for 547, a 62.5% completion rate
4,649 yards, 29 TDs, 16 INTs, and 19 sacks taken

Now of course this is extrapolating a 5-game sample size, and there's selection bias here because I'm removing the Giants game. But still I would take that performance happily, even though the 16 picks will still be among league leaders and mean we're only a mediocre team. Even with the picks, it would be positive progress at the QB spot.

So it seems Jay is onto something, getting Kirk past the mental hurdle of collapsing under adversity. If he's able to coach up that mental aspect of it, the Shanahans and Gruden both might be right in thinking he can be very good.

For fairness reasons, if you are going to extrapolate, you need to take out the best statistical game as well as the worst (the Eagles game), which leaves you with a season of:

4104 yards, 62.675% completion, 24 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.

This looks more like Kirk Cousins to me.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by Skinsfanatic

For fairness reasons, if you are going to extrapolate, you need to take out the best statistical game as well as the worst (the Eagles game), which leaves you with a season of:

4104 yards, 62.675% completion, 24 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.

This looks more like Kirk Cousins to me.

I'd take those numbers from a guy about to start only his tenth game, especially if we see improvement as the season goes on. They look similar to Andrew Luck's rookie season, and I hear he's pretty good.

4,374 yards 54.1% 23TDs 18TDs

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

I'd take those numbers from a guy about to start only his tenth game, especially if we see improvement as the season goes on. They look similar to Andrew Luck's rookie season, and I hear he's pretty good.

4,374 yards 54.1% 23TDs 18TDs

Right

Another thing that makes this different for Cousins is he is starting the season as "the guy". I think from a mental stand point this is big for him.

Id really like to know in the locker room how this annoucement went over with the rest of the offense...will they rally around Cousins? Are they upset RG3 is not the starter? Id really like to know what the WR think.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Id really like to know what the WR think.

"You cant do epic shit with basic people" - Desean Jackson

The day after we lost 27-7 vs the then 1-8 bucs. Helu was our best receiver with 57 yards. RG3 quarterbacking.

[Skinsfanatic]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

I'd take those numbers from a guy about to start only his tenth game, especially if we see improvement as the season goes on. They look similar to Andrew Luck's rookie season, and I hear he's pretty good.

4,374 yards 54.1% 23TDs 18TDs

I agree I would take those numbers (especially depending on what the running game produces), I just wanted to put out an alternative/more accurate picture of what this year might look like.

[RedskinJake]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

I'd take those numbers from a guy about to start only his tenth game, especially if we see improvement as the season goes on. They look similar to Andrew Luck's rookie season, and I hear he's pretty good.

4,374 yards 54.1% 23TDs 18TDs

Brett Favre, who I think KC compares to for several reasons, had 24 interceptions in his second year which is pretty close to the same point in each players careers.

3303 yards, 60.9% , 19TD's, 24INTS

Is Cousins the next Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning etc.. ? who knows, but none of those guys had anything to really hang their hats on after 10-16 games either. He has the tools, let him develop and I think he could be great. Just manage expectations. He doesn't need to be any of those guys to be the QB that we need right now..

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Skinsfanatic

For fairness reasons, if you are going to extrapolate, you need to take out the best statistical game as well as the worst (the Eagles game), which leaves you with a season of:

4104 yards, 62.675% completion, 24 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.

This looks more like Kirk Cousins to me.

I don't know though, the Eagles run that fast paced offense, you can expect Cousins to get plenty of possessions in those games.

[Skinsfanatic]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I don't know though, the Eagles run that fast paced offense, you can expect Cousins to get plenty of possessions in those games.

The point was more that if you are going to ignore the worst performance and then use the stats to predict over 16 games, you need to ignore the best performance too. Even if you can expect that kind of performance against the Eagles, that very idea shows that you wouldn't expect that performance over a season because no one else plays with that pace. Therefore, the Eagles game would be an outlier and not as useful as a predictive tool.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Skinsfanatic

The point was more that if you are going to ignore the worst performance and then use the stats to predict over 16 games, you need to ignore the best performance too. Even if you can expect that kind of performance against the Eagles, that very idea shows that you wouldn't expect that performance over a season because no one else plays with that pace. Therefore, the Eagles game would be an outlier and not as useful as a predictive tool.

You don't predict that we will play the Eagles twice this season? Your brain is broken.