Passing: A Deeper Look

[That Guy]

and in case anyone is wondering... peyton throws 43.13% more deep passes per game and completes 47.47% more deep passes than brunell (per game this year). that's assuming the data is 100% accurate though, which may or may not be true :/. and those numbers will be even more skewed once peyton checks out our secondary.

so yeah, he doesn't throw deep all that much.

[onlydarksets]

Thanks for putting this together! Did you add them all up to see where that put shim overall? Still toward the bottom of the middle at best is my guess.

Also, these stats lack a qualitative aspect - that is, how close were those incompletions? As you mentioned, we don't know how many ended up as interceptions. Factoring in that type of information is guaranteed to pull Brunell down. Although, he looked very good in the Jags game.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by That Guy

big question on how you compiled this...

i just went through the nfl.com play by play and re-watched the jacksonville game and brunell is 4/7, not 6/8, so wondering how you got that.

2nd quarter:
1-10-WAS20 (11:20) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to C.Cooley.
3-10-WAS30 (9:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep right to S.Moss.
1-10-WAS33 (5:01) M.Brunell pass deep middle to C.Cooley to JAX 45 for 22 yards.
3-6-JAC41 (3:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to B.Lloyd.
1-10-JAC46 (1:01) M.Brunell pass deep left to A.Randle El to JAX 27 for 19 yards.


3rd quarter:
3-6-JAC38 (4:49) M.Brunell pass deep left to B.Lloyd ran ob at JAX 5 for 33 yards.

Overtime:
2-13-WAS32 (13:23) M.Brunell pass deep left to S.Moss for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


there was a cooley catch deep in overtime, but that can't be counted since he was guilty of illegal touching, and couldn't have caught the ball without committing that illegal act... if anything it should be counted as another incompletion, but i left it out in my 4/7 accounting above. no idea how you got 6/8 though.

I don't have time to check all of the games, so i don't know how accurate those are.

I figured if anyone was going to find flaws it would be you I got the numbers from NFL.com and cross-referenced with Stats Inc (through Football Outsiders). Both had him at 6/8 in that game.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by onlydarksets

Thanks for putting this together! Did you add them all up to see where that put shim overall? Still toward the bottom of the middle at best is my guess.

Also, these stats lack a qualitative aspect - that is, how close were those incompletions? As you mentioned, we don't know how many ended up as interceptions. Factoring in that type of information is guaranteed to pull Brunell down. Although, he looked very good in the Jags game.

If I remember right, just two of Brunell's deep passes were for INTs. I figured if people really wanted to take an ever deeper look into it they could do it themselves. The intent here wasn't to prove any point. Personally, I feel he's throw deep more often than given credit but more importantly I don't think it's as important as almost everyone else seems to think. The reason for posting this was that I was just getting tired of hearing how he NEVER throws deep and the rest of the league does all the time., without anyone providing any numbers.

[BrunellMVP?]

hmmm interesting post, but i wonder, aren't most of brunell's "deep balls" mostly due to yards after catch? not that everyone doesn't benefit, but i think its a fair observation.

[EternalEnigma21]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

If I remember right, just two of Brunell's deep passes were for INTs. I figured if people really wanted to take an ever deeper look into it they could do it themselves. The intent here wasn't to prove any point. Personally, I feel he's throw deep more often than given credit but more importantly I don't think it's as important as almost everyone else seems to think. The reason for posting this was that I was just getting tired of hearing how he NEVER throws deep and the rest of the league does all the time., without anyone providing any numbers.

I understand and appreciate you shedding light on the subject... People in general shouldn't care about all that as long as the plays are being made, but my biggest concern from the last game regarding brunell's throws, are he hit more blue guys in the hands and chest with the ball than I care to remember... on short throws...

The Int at the end was just him looking to get the ball to the only guy he's comfortable with bailing him out, but now defenses will be keying in on that. I thought that was why we brought in these other two guys, but whatever...

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by BrunellMVP?

hmmm interesting post, but i wonder, aren't most of brunell's "deep balls" mostly due to yards after catch? not that everyone doesn't benefit, but i think its a fair observation.

Not in these cases. These are specifically passes that traveled 15 yards in the air before landing. That's the NFL's definition of a "deep pass"

[Monkeydad]

With Santana Moss, do we really NEED to go deep? Just dump if off to him and the ball will move 30 to 70 yards a lot of times. Same end result.

Besides, Brunell has shown he CAN go deep when needed. Lloyd caught a 52 yarder last week and we've watched Moss catch some, even game winners.

[memphisskin]

Thanks TAFKAS for the spreadsheet, Brunell's up and down performance is well documented in that spreadsheet.

My point in questioning Brunell's deep passing ability is that it "appears" that his reluctance to go deep and stretch the field is hindering our receivers ability to get open on the short routes. Either our wideouts are running horrible routes, or they just don't respect Brunell's ability to go deep.

Another perception problem, teams don't seem to have any difficulty in going deep against us and I still believe we have a pretty good defense. I watched McNabb vs. the Giants and wondered if Brunell could have made those same throws, and thus far he hasn't proved that he can consistently. My frustration comes from seeing him complete a 53 yarder to Lloyd vs the Titans and then seeing him bounce a 10 yard pass to him on the next series.

Watching Brunell vs the Giants he did seem to have some pop in his arm, but against the Titans that pop was missing.

[skinnyfan]

Originally Posted by memphisskin

Thanks TAFKAS for the spreadsheet, Brunell's up and down performance is well documented in that spreadsheet.

My point in questioning Brunell's deep passing ability is that it "appears" that his reluctance to go deep and stretch the field is hindering our receivers ability to get open on the short routes. Either our wideouts are running horrible routes, or they just don't respect Brunell's ability to go deep.

Another perception problem, teams don't seem to have any difficulty in going deep against us and I still believe we have a pretty good defense. I watched McNabb vs. the Giants and wondered if Brunell could have made those same throws, and thus far he hasn't proved that he can consistently. My frustration comes from seeing him complete a 53 yarder to Lloyd vs the Titans and then seeing him bounce a 10 yard pass to him on the next series.

Watching Brunell vs the Giants he did seem to have some pop in his arm, but against the Titans that pop was missing.

Spot on post. A lot of corners are sitting down on the short routes and daring Mark to go downfield and beat them........he just is unable to do it, and will not do it.

[Beemnseven]

Heard an interesting point about the passing game today by a local beat reporter. When asked if the receivers are getting open, he said that usually in the NFL, being "open" can many times be just half a step from the defender. On the intermediate routes, the deep ins, outs, hooks and square-ins, Brunell for whatever reason doesn't make those throws anymore.

Does it seem to anyone else that he either gives us the occasional desperation heave to Moss, or the 10-yard or less completions? The latter seem to be the only types of passes that get completed with any consistency.

[Crat92]

Brunell had his day in the sun. It's time for a new day to dawn, and that new day is Jason Campbell! Hess, Brunell can be his mentor from the sidelines. Giving him that sound veteran advice! HAIL from MCUSA!

[Schneed10]

Whether a ball goes 15 yards in the air isn't a great measure of a "deep pass" in my opinion. The point of the deep pass is to stretch the defense out. To me, it's not a deep pass if it goes 16 yards through the air. It's a deep pass only if it's an attempt to get the ball over the safety's head. That's what we don't do often enough, and consequently we find ourselves facing cover 2 umbrellas in which the safeties are relatively shallow.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Whether a ball goes 15 yards in the air isn't a great measure of a "deep pass" in my opinion. The point of the deep pass is to stretch the defense out. To me, it's not a deep pass if it goes 16 yards through the air. It's a deep pass only if it's an attempt to get the ball over the safety's head. That's what we don't do often enough, and consequently we find ourselves facing cover 2 umbrellas in which the safeties are relatively shallow.

Just going by the official definition. Personally, I feel a five-yard screen that goes 50 is more effective than a 15-yarder that goes for an extra 10. But people want to see bombs.

[WillH]

Originally Posted by RobH4413

Hell yeah... muchos gracious senor

I hate you......chinga tu madre