John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

5 points a game can be a lot. BUT...the addition of Haynesworth and Orakpo should help us with field position. You'd have to think that is worth a point or two a game alone(as long as our kicker can make field goals). The advancement of the offense in general and health along the OLine should be worth another two or three points (although health could go up in smoke of course). That leaves just a shade of need that our WRs improve. So yeah I have some hope that it can come together to get us up into the 20's.

Well even with good field position we weren't able to capitalize enough. Coaches and players have both pointed out our red zone performance as being sub par; to me that means that we need WR and O-Line production. Even with good field position if we walk away with 0 or 3 most of the time, it was only that, good field position.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

Originally Posted by Daseal

So you mean half the teams with a lower PPG than us had more turnovers and half didn't? That's not much of a stat. No doubt turnovers could greatly help, but lets not disguise the real issue. Our red zone offense. When you get 7 instead of 3, 21 becomes much easier. Between the 30s our offense looked great. Inside the 30s... not so much.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean, but I think you misunderstood me -- or perhaps I'm misunderstanding you...

We were 17th in *picks* -- not ppg. So, the 16 teams ranked above us -- in picks -- all scored over 21 ppg (with the exception of 2 teams).

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

If my calculations are correct we're talking about scoring about 70 more points (or 7 TDs) more than we did last year to get to 21 points, which could be a tall order...but my math has never been good.

Still, 21 points a game seems like something most NFL teams should be able to achieve with some regularity.

Clayton is generally pretty positive about the Redskins. He usually thinks they have the talent to be at least a solid Wild Card team

Yeah your math is terrible, LOL. 7 TDs translates into 49 more points, not 70. You need 10 TDs for 70 points.

But it's not quite as simple as just coming up with 10 more TDs throughout the year, because to do so you need a ton more opportunities. The other way to get more points is to come away with fewer field goals, and instead convert to TDs.

If we converted 10 FGs to TDs, we'd be one of the best red zone teams in the NFL, and it would still get us only 40 additional points (7-3) x 10 = 40.

Then we could get more opportunities by getting more turnovers on the defensive side. And the other way is to turn offensive series that never were real opportunities into TDs by way of the huge big play; for example when you're on your own 20 you don't really consider it a scoring opportunity, but if you hit on a long bomb for 80 yards, then you have a chance to make it happen.

To get 70 more points I think you need all 3, which is a tall order. You need to punch it in when in the red zone (hopefully Dockery helps, but he can only do so much). You need to capture more turnovers, which Haynesworth should help with. And you need to hit on the big play, which is where pass protection comes in for the 7 step drop.

You can't get to 70 without all of the above taking place.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by ChickenMonkey

The biggest problem the Redskins have is BIG PLAYS(20 YRDS PLUS) & SHORT YARDAGE
More down field passed and a RB(aka Anthony Aldridge) that can take it the distance.
I love Portis for 5-10yrds , but hes not goint to take it to the house. Take it to the house backs, like M.Turner,A. Peterson,W.Parker, they can change a close game.

I agree to an extent, but it's sort of what we've molded CP into. That and our downfield run blocking hasn't been so great in the past few years.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Yeah your math is terrible, LOL. 7 TDs translates into 49 more points, not 70. You need 10 TDs for 70 points.

But it's not quite as simple as just coming up with 10 more TDs throughout the year, because to do so you need a ton more opportunities. The other way to get more points is to come away with fewer field goals, and instead convert to TDs.

If we converted 10 FGs to TDs, we'd be one of the best red zone teams in the NFL, and it would still get us only 40 additional points (7-3) x 10 = 40.

Then we could get more opportunities by getting more turnovers on the defensive side. And the other way is to turn offensive series that never were real opportunities into TDs by way of the huge big play; for example when you're on your own 20 you don't really consider it a scoring opportunity, but if you hit on a long bomb for 80 yards, then you have a chance to make it happen.

To get 70 more points I think you need all 3, which is a tall order. You need to punch it in when in the red zone (hopefully Dockery helps, but he can only do so much). You need to capture more turnovers, which Haynesworth should help with. And you need to hit on the big play, which is where pass protection comes in for the 7 step drop.

You can't get to 70 without all of the above taking place.

LOL. I'm the Firstdown of Math

Definitely agree about converting field goals to touchdowns, that is a huge factor

[TheSmurfs22]

It is fun to read these predictions but the truth is it long season and there are so many things out of the team's control that who knows what may happen. I doubt any of us thought this time last year that the Cards would be playing in the Superbowl.

[GTripp0012]

If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team. That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team. That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.

I agree. The 21 ppg mark is arbitrary and, as much as I'd like to score 21 ppg, we can win many games scoring less.

I also agree with the comments above about the red zone offense. That really needs fixing. If Cooley has the red zone TD's that he should have (but didn't last year), the Redskins are a much better team.

[Monksdown]

5 ppg totally rests with Jason's throwing arm and Clinton's health. We haven't done anything to help them.

So, i think we're a contender, but not a favorite to make the playoffs.

[Redskin Warrior]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

When I watched the redskins last year the biggest issue was in the redzone. They just would constantly breakdown within the 20's. Also it seemed that Zorn lost his aggressive nature in the second 8 games. It was like the league caught up with his playcalling and he didn't adjust.

The defense should get better and hopefully cause more turnovers. which would mean shorter fields for the offense. My hope is that not only does Thomas steps up this year but also Fred Davis steps up as well. That way we could use more 2 TE sets.

Mike Sellers on the one-yard line last year!!! Who were we playing again?

[redskins411]

Originally Posted by TheSmurfs22

It is fun to read these predictions but the truth is it long season and there are so many things out of the team's control that who knows what may happen. I doubt any of us thought this time last year that the Cards would be playing in the Superbowl.

It is indeed a long season. We averaged 20.6 points in the first eight games of the season last year and 12.5 in the last eight games of the season. Maybe this is where John Clayton got his 21 points from...

[53Fan]

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

I agree and think we'll do a lot better in the redzone this year. I also expect Suisham to have a better year. I think we can expect at least 3 more points per game than last year.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

But there were at least 10-12 reasonably makeable FG situations that were passed on because the game situation dictated that 3 points wouldn't have changed the outcome.

Ergo, projecting an increase of 30-45 points due to improvements in the results of FG games is realistic. However, then any increase in the Touchdown projections would be worth 4 points per, because we can't double count the game situations in which we came away with zero points. We can add 3 points in those situations with no theoretical improvement, or 7 points with a small theoretical improvement, but under no situation can those be 10 point situations.

The bottom line is that a progression to the mean based on last year's talent should yield about 19 PPG. To get up to 21, and get those 6-7 extra touchdowns out of those FG attempts, the offense has to improve situationally, both in the red zone, and in the 30+ yd play categories.

I think we can extrapolate that if the offense simply isn't worse than last year, we're dealing with a playoff team. If it progresses just by 2-3 PPG (on top of the 2.5 PPG progression to mean yardage totals), we're talking about a SB contender. 2-3 PPG won't be easy though, and if we start trading in additional turnovers for points, we're going to cost ourselves more wins than the points will gain us.