Football Outsider win predictions

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by BringBackJoeT

At least? Really?

Yes. Without any changes to our team, you see-
Our first 7 opponents include several teams we should beat and we could be 6-2 by week 9 again.
We really have an easier schedule then last year (no Pitt/Balt and SD in Dec will be perfect weather/timing)
we play Dallas late December, and if they are losing they could very well implode between coaching and Romo/Kitna
we have one less preseason game,
and a slightly better positioned bye.

Changes to our team that should help also:
JC is as motivated as he could ever be
AH should improve our DLine and big play D's
ARE will not be returning punts (i really am sure of this, but no real way to prove it)
JZ will have a season under his belt
For every big play D Hall gives up, we ought to get 1-2 TO's that change a game.
Finally, last year's rookies all now have one year under their belt. (Yes a year can make a huge difference)

Finally,
as the other poster said, our Division rivals all have more transitional issues than us, and I believe Philly and the Giants D's both will see their D's soften slightly under the new coaches.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Yes. Without any changes to our team, you see-
Our first 7 opponents include several teams we should beat and we could be 6-2 by week 9 again.
We really have an easier schedule then last year (no Pitt/Balt and SD in Dec will be perfect weather/timing)
we play Dallas late December, and if they are losing they could very well implode between coaching and Romo/Kitna
we have one less preseason game,
and a slightly better positioned bye.

Changes to our team that should help also:
JC is as motivated as he could ever be
AH should improve our DLine and big play D's
ARE will not be returning punts (i really am sure of this, but no real way to prove it)
JZ will have a season under his belt
For every big play D Hall gives up, we ought to get 1-2 TO's that change a game.
Finally, last year's rookies all now have one year under their belt. (Yes a year can make a huge difference)

Finally,
as the other poster said, our Division rivals all have more transitional issues than us, and I believe Philly and the Giants D's both will see their D's soften slightly under the new coaches.

Dallas always plays poorly in December.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by skindeep

@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5

11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.

Given our first 8 opponents, I doubt we will be shown as average; I expect that most media will be pointing at our 6-2 start last year, and comparing our 6-2 or 5-3 start to it, saying that we will probably collapse again. Again, our biggest difference is that instead of playing D's like Pitt and Balt, we will have Oakland, SD and Denver in the final 8. I am very optimistic, and our O-line, though not heavily improved like most of us hoped, will not see the likes of R Lewis, or T Polamalu coming hard on blitzes.
I will admit I always am optimistic at this time, but I believe there is the an absolute reason to be.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I expect we will win at least 10 games, and the division title should be in reach. The only way that doesn't happen is if the WR's just completely bomb.

You are forgetting about one major unit that thus far hasn't been really upgraded and that is the offensive line. JC could end up doing a Patrick Ramsey impersonation during the Spurrier days, and CP might get pounded. We might have two weak links in our offense if these newbie WRs do indeed bomb, because odds are the line is going to get banged up often.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Given our first 8 opponents, I doubt we will be shown as average; I expect that most media will be pointing at our 6-2 start last year, and comparing our 6-2 or 5-3 start to it, saying that we will probably collapse again. Again, our biggest difference is that instead of playing D's like Pitt and Balt, we will have Oakland, SD and Denver in the final 8. I am very optimistic, and our O-line, though not heavily improved like most of us hoped, will not see the likes of R Lewis, or T Polamalu coming hard on blitzes.
I will admit I always am optimistic at this time, but I believe there is the an absolute reason to be.

WE will see. I used to be the 10-6 or 9-7 guy, but since Gibbs II these preseason rags have been pretty much right on. Just hope the Sporting news 4-12 prediction was just a sick joke.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

You are forgetting about one major unit that thus far hasn't been really upgraded and that is the offensive line. JC could end up doing a Patrick Ramsey impersonation during the Spurrier days, and CP might get pounded. We might have two weak links in our offense if these newbie WRs do indeed bomb, because odds are the line is going to get banged up often.

No, I didn't forget, and I still hope we bring Levi Jones in to back up Samuels. The rest of the line is average to slightly above average talent, and other than our 6 division games, they should hold their own, and we won 3 out of 6 with this unit. I am confident we will at least split our division again.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by skindeep

@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5

I count 12 Ws and 4 Ls there.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by skindeep

@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up.
11-5

Dude there is no way we will win 8 Games in a row.... I hope we will win atleast 9 games this season.. Philly and NY are both pretty good and Dallas has so much talent that they could be very good. I Say 9-7 at best and that's because of our D...

I Don't see our offense being much better.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.

AMEN!!! You guys have to understand that an average OLINE (MUCH LESS OFFENSE OVERALL) can't win you 11 games. Portis need's help because this is a 2 RB league now.. Our WR'S are not great, and JC is under alot of pressure this season.. I see 9-7 at best and 7-9 at worst.

[GMScud]

I disagree with several of these. IMO: Atlanta will win more than 6 or 7 for sure. Minny will get to 10 wins, not 8 or 9, Indy will finally have a down year and won't get to 11 or 12 wins, maybe more like 8 or 9. Buffalo will win more than 5, Philly will win more than 9, and Carolina and Baltimore will win more than 8. The Giants won't win 10, the Lions won't win 6. And the Redskins will win 10. Also, Chicago won't win 10 or 11, and Green Bay will win more than 7.

And last but not least, picking the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals to be the worst team in the NFC West is just dumb. They can use all the cute little metrics and formulas they want; this list is pretty weak.

PS- I'm also going to bookmark the permalink to this post and see where I stand in January.

[djnemo65]

At least Football Outsider's have an actual methodology informing their predictions and aren't just pulling random records out of thin air like pretty much everyone else on the internet machine. I believe they have a decent track record too, although they sure missed on Arizona last year. Anyway, all this list means is that according to their formulae this is where the teams will end up. I think the Skins will be better than they allow but we'll certainly see.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.

Receivers are only as good as their QB. See Roddy White, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, the entire Saints receiving corps and all those scrubs Tom Brady made look good (Deion Branch, Troy Brown, etc.) before Moss and Welker got there.

Just felt like pushing buttons this morning

[redskins1974]

Originally Posted by skindeep

@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5

whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by redskins1974

whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?

It does feel like this could be a good year. Lots of positives to point to - Burress and TO gone and not a lot of flashy off-season moves by the rest of the NFC East, favorable schedule for the Skins, defense looks like it could be all-world. With 8 wins last year, it's not unreasonable to expect more this year... maybe 10-6?

Just got to hope that the 2-6 finish and 12 point per game average wasn't a true indication of Zorn's ability to run an offense.