Around the NFL 2013 Offseason (Episode 99)

[SirLK26]

Good post, CB59. A few comments.

1. You have the Bills in second place in the "Clowney Sweepstakes". The other AFCE teams better hope the Bills don't get their paws on Clowney. Mario Williams+ Jadeveon Clowney+ Jairus Byrd=scary defense.

2. You really have the Cowboys at 5-11? They seem more about 9-7 to me. Like I've said before, they have a very talented roster, so 5 wins seems to be a bit of underestimation.

3. New England, Indianapolis, and Seattle miss the playoffs? Not likely.

4. I like that you have the Cardinals at 11-5. Their defense is looking really good; if Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald can make it work, that team should be playoff-bound.

5. Hard to see Kansas City going 12-4 in Andy Reid and Alex Smith's first season with the Chiefs.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

Good post, CB59. A few comments.

1. You have the Bills in second place in the "Clowney Sweepstakes". The other AFCE teams better hope the Bills don't get their paws on Clowney. Mario Williams+ Jadeveon Clowney+ Jairus Byrd=scary defense.

2. You really have the Cowboys at 5-11? They seem more about 9-7 to me. Like I said before, they have a very talented roster.

3. New England, Indianapolis, and Seattle miss the playoffs? Not likely.

4. I like that you have the Cardinals at 11-5. Their defense is looking really good; if Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald can make it work, that team should be playoff-bound.

5. Hard to see Kansas City going 12-4 in Andy Reid and Alex Smith's first season with the Chiefs.

1. It would be the Titans OR Bills getting clowney. And if it is the Bills, they'll still suck.

2. Yeah there were maybe 3 games where I went back and fourth with Dallas, but I'm more so thinking about having a brand new defense and an awful OL, I'm predicting that Garrett also gets fired midway through the season, screwing them up for the rest of the season.

3. Indy is better, but has a tougher schedule and I'm not too sold on them being a clear cut favorite to be a double digit win team. Seattle, I think they'll get hit with the injury bug and struggle against a few teams they shouldn't lose to. New England, even after I went through the prediction sheet, I was shocked that I had them at 6-10, those 10 losses I had them to the Jets, Cincy, New Orleans, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Denver, Texans, Browns (big upset, yet Ray Horton is their D-cordinator; much like Rob Ryan in New Orleans with that upset pick) Miami, Ravens. I think New England reloading and with completely new talent and their division getting stronger on defense (not necessarily offense) as well as playing all the strong seeds and teams from last year makes it a tough year for New England. Surprising, but tough.

5. Kansas City has all the talent. Put in a smart QB and good Head Coach and I think that will help their great defense which they already had. I have their 4 losses to Denver, us, the Giants, and Texans. Their schedule isn't that hard and playing the AFC West and AFC South with only Denver and Houston as the only tough teams in those divisions. I guess their ''upsets'' I have for them are against the Colts and Cowboys. They play Denver 2 times in 3 weeks which is going to be tough for both teams, maybe Denver wins both, but I think they split and pull off the upset giving Denver their first loss of the season in week 13.

[skinsfaninok]

U really have the saints, Steelers and cowboys all that bad? Wow

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

U really have the saints, Steelers and cowboys all that bad? Wow

Saints have a brand new defense and they've lost that mojo they used to have. Their windows close to shut.

The Steelers may be historically good, but they have a lot of new defensive pieces as well as a transition with their secondary being old and injury prone (Polamalu in this case). And they're OL isn't that good. On the flip side, I have the Ravens dominating because they've already made most of that transition on defense last year and got the right guys in FA and draft to fill those voids. I also think the Bengals (and no, Hard Knocks has nothing to do with it) being very dominate in that division. They have a DL that maybe the best in the game, along with great skill players (Giovanni Bernard is going to surprise some people). The Browns defense has gotten better with Ray Horton.

Cowboys; well as I said previously, there were a few games which I easily could have picked them but I'm predicting a Fired Jason Garrett midway through the season and that really screwing up the team. I don't see that OL helping Tony Romo. I don't see how the transition from a 3-4 to 4-3 will be that easy. Monte Kiffin couldn't stop the read option/pistol at USC, how will he do that in the NFC?

[CultBrennan59]

Oliver gets hit with football - NFL Videos

[SirLK26]

CB59: So Seattle not making the playoffs is pure speculation? That's fine, injuries can happen to anyone. I'm not to sold on Russell Wilson anyway.

Indianapolis not making the playoffs? As skinsfaninok stated in post #404, Andrew Luck is a very good quarterback. I expect him to cut down on the turnovers this year, and produce much better numbers than last year. He's throwing the ball to Reggie Wayne and Darius Heyward-Bey, which won't hurt at all. Now they've got Ahmad Bradshaw running the ball, with a solid backup in Vick Ballard. And their defense was decent last year; no reason to think it will be worse this year. I'll have to see them miss the playoffs to believe it.

And NE not making the playoffs? That's just ridiculous. In a few years, I can see them falter, but not this year.

[donofriose]

Saints were 7-9 without a head coach. I have a good feeling they will make some noise this season. Easily could see Drew Brees being the league MVP. Sean Payton is still one of, if not the best offensive mind in football.

Unless Tom Brady gets injured, Patriots won't go 6-10. Elite quarterbacks and Elite coaches don't go under .500. I see an 11-5 or 10-6 kind of year for them.

As much as I love the Redskins, I have an extremely hard time seeing the Skins go 12-4. Questionable defense, injury prone receiver, tight end, pass rusher and quarterback. I hope you are right but so many things have to fall into place for that to happen, so I have my doubts.

Since almost every writer is picking the Broncos vs 49ers, probably won't happen. I really hope the Texans make it this year from the AFC. Broncos are being overrated.

Love the Chiefs, Rams, Bengals and Cardinals. But if they do make the playoffs, they probably will do what those kind of teams always do every year when they make the playoffs. Get destroyed their first game.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by donofriose

Saints were 7-9 without a head coach. I have a good feeling they will make some noise this season. Easily could see Drew Brees being the league MVP. Sean Payton is still one of, if not the best offensive mind in football.

Unless Tom Brady gets injured, Patriots won't go 6-10. Elite quarterbacks and Elite coaches don't go under .500. I see an 11-5 or 10-6 kind of year for them.

As much as I love the Redskins, I have an extremely hard time seeing the Skins go 12-4. Questionable defense, injury prone receiver, tight end, pass rusher and quarterback. I hope you are right but so many things have to fall into place for that to happen, so I have my doubts.

Since almost every writer is picking the Broncos vs 49ers, probably won't happen. I really hope the Texans make it this year from the AFC. Broncos are being overrated.

Love the Chiefs, Rams, Bengals and Cardinals. But if they do make the playoffs, they probably will do what those kind of teams always do every year when they make the playoffs. Get destroyed their first game.

Saints changed their whole defense and have no LB's to help them transition/fit that defense. They're secondary got picked on so much last year, sure they got Vaccaro, but he's an unknown to me, and Keenan Lewis, was considered by many to be overrated. They're DL on has one good player that fits the 3-4 and thats Cameron jordan. Jimmy Graham gets injured often, Colston has been missing games more often, and they have a brand new left tackle. I see more negatives than positives, thus a just as bad, if not worse year than last year.

Patriots, they have a tough schedule and I see 2 upsets with the Jets, and Browns. I already said that I see them going 1-5 in their division (although that I'm skeptical about because Miami's LT situation, Buffalo's QB situation, and Jets Sanchez situation) but I look at all those teams and see better defenses (Buffalo hired the Jets D-Coordinator who plays 3-4, 4-3, 46, and 4-2 defense a lot of defenses to throw at Brady), Miami has 3 good to very good DE's that can get to the QB, and the Jets may be bad on offense but their defense can get to and get the best of Brady.

Also you don't just lose one of your star TE's, your best WR, and have a TE whose had 5 surgeries since the season ended and continue right where you left off. I don't care how good Brady is, they'll have growing pains. They've looked good in preseason, but they'll get defenses that are actually playing week 1. Lots of good defenses. And remember, all it takes is one injury, for their season to go down the drain. They're defense should be better though, but they're CBs aside from Talib are questionable.

[donofriose]

Colston has missed 3 games the last 4 years. He has only missed significant time one season and that was 4 or 5 years ago. The only player I would be worried about if I was a Saints fan would be Jimmy Graham, because he is the difference maker on that offense. Their defense is bad, but I think they will do what the Redskins did last year, who also had a terrible defensive secondary, and just try to force turnovers, its how they won their only superbowl. But elite quarterback + Elite Coach will get you into the playoffs. They still managed to go 7-9 without their coach, and with one of the worst defenses in NFL history. But this season will show just how valuable a great coach can be to a team.

The patriots will start out slow like they do every year (started 1-2 last year) and then go on a 10 game winning streak and lose a few random games toward the end. 11-5. They will probably win one game in the playoffs then get sent home when they play Houston hopefully. When was the last time an elite quarterback and elite coach went below .500? They have a top 5 offensive line who right now are all healthy, their running game will be better (led the league in rushing touchdowns, 7th in yards), they had a top 10 scoring defense even though they obviously gave up a lot of yards, but yards have never won games, and if Talib is healthy, that defense looks completely different than when he is out.

They will take a step back, from being a 13-3/12-4 team to a 11-5/10-6 team. But to say they will go all the way to 6-10 with arguably the best quarterback and best coach in the game, is a little far-fetched. They will be similar to the '09 team.

But speculation is always fun and you never know who will get injured, all bets are off if Brees or Brady gets hurt.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

ummm. no.

but let's see how the season goes.

How do u say he's not good? Watch the kid play and you'll see

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

How do u say he's not good? Watch the kid play and you'll see

We have had this discussion. His first td was absolutely an interception but thanks to excellent ball skills by wayne it was a td. His completion percentage speaks for itself. I have watched him play, and he can make wow throws like the one fleener dropped, but he makes alot of errors too. My personal opinion is he will settle into a mid pack career. But again, let's let this season play out. Maybe he gets shockingly better but he never did in college though, in fact his numbers never have shown dramatic improvement, just an above average college player from day one. And in the NFL if you don't get better the defenses will learn your weaknesses.

[donofriose]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

We have had this discussion. His first td was absolutely an interception but thanks to excellent ball skills by wayne it was a td. His completion percentage speaks for itself. I have watched him play, and he can make wow throws like the one fleener dropped, but he makes alot of errors too. My personal opinion is he will settle into a mid pack career. But again, let's let this season play out. Maybe he gets shockingly better but he never did in college though, in fact his numbers never have shown dramatic improvement, just an above average college player from day one. And in the NFL if you don't get better the defenses will learn your weaknesses.

That is why toward the end of the season (the last 4 games specifically) Luck didn't finish a game completing more than 50% of his passes. Defenses figured him out. I think everyone is overrating Luck as this once in a lifetime player. I think he will be very good (see Matt Ryan) but will not end up being the elite quarterback of the next 20 years. But you never know. Most quarterbacks that end up being elite usually end up taking one giant, unexpected step at some time in their career.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by donofriose

That is why toward the end of the season (the last 4 games specifically) Luck didn't finish a game completing more than 50% of his passes. Defenses figured him out. I think everyone is overrating Luck as this once in a lifetime player. I think he will be very good (see Matt Ryan) but will not end up being the elite quarterback of the next 20 years. But you never know. Most quarterbacks that end up being elite usually end up taking one giant, unexpected step at some time in their career.

I don't know of anyone who is calling Luck a once-in-a-lifetime player, but plenty of people think he is going to have a great career, and rightfully so. He set the rookie record for passing yards, unquestionably has a smart football mind, is an underrated athlete, is a great game manager, has really good arm strength, the list goes on... The 18 INTs isn't a big concern because he's a rookie; in addition he was throwing the ball quite a few times a game. Heck, Peyton f****** Manning threw ten more INTs his rookie year than Luck did. The other small area of concern is completion percentage. But Manning only had a 56.7 percentage his rookie year, whereas Luck completed 54.1% of his passes. If Manning can improve that much, why can't Luck? Kiper gave Luck a very similar grade to Elway, so obviously he thinks Luck is going to be special.

Let's be clear though. I would take RG3 over Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Both are great quarterbacks, and will have HOF careers.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

I don't know of anyone who is calling Luck a once-in-a-lifetime player, but plenty of people think he is going to have a great career, and rightfully so. He set the rookie record for passing yards, unquestionably has a smart football mind, is an underrated athlete, is a great game manager, has really good arm strength, the list goes on... The 18 INTs isn't a big concern because he's a rookie; in addition he was throwing the ball quite a few times a game. Heck, Peyton f****** Manning threw ten more INTs his rookie year than Luck did. The other small area of concern is completion percentage. But Manning only had a 56.7 percentage his rookie year, whereas Luck completed 54.1% of his passes. If Manning can improve that much, why can't Luck? Kiper gave Luck a very similar grade to Elway, so obviously he thinks Luck is going to be special.

Let's be clear though. I would take RG3 over Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Both are great quarterbacks, and will have HOF careers.

Almost every scout when he came out labeled him as that.

Matt Miller of NFLDraftscout wants to have Andrew Luck's children, he is obsessed with him.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by CultBrennan59

Almost every scout when he came out labeled him as that.

Matt Miller of NFLDraftscout wants to have Andrew Luck's children, he is obsessed with him.

I don't think he's a once-in-a-lifetime player. But he will be great.