John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances

[GTripp0012]

To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.

[Hamoskinz]

Second guessing whether we should have kicked a field or go for a TD is a bit too far but certainly the fact that we had great field positions last year from turnovers and good KRs but couldn't score in the red zone is an area we have been trying to improve without any noticeable change. The 21 ppg target rests largely on JC whether he takes more chances but also on our receivers running better routes than last year (routes that were well short of the 1st on 3rd downs).

[30gut]

Originally Posted by stu_nna

Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.

+1
to piggy back from your post

More scoring doesn't have to come directly from the offense alone.
Lets assume that the offense/passing game doesn't improve *(i think it will) having better field position would lead to shorter field which would lead to more points
-more production from the Punting/Punt Return Units could help
-Swishy could make some more kicks

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.

Good point GTripp. I would be very, very surprised if we don't score more points this year than last.

[Stuck in TX]

I like Clayton's take on our chances. What I really love about it though, was that it was not over the top. Every year there is a team that is overhyped at nausea call me superstitious, but it usually means that team does not do as well. Last season it was the freakin Cowboys. Who in the world saw the Cardinals coming? The year before it was the Saints... no one was talking about he Giants. This year it is the Texans, and maybe the Falcons. Keep talking everyone... but we all know defense wins championships. We had a top ten defense last year and have abandoned the "ain't broke don't fix it" slogan and turned our Porsche into a Lamborghini... We need to continue to fly under the radar and catch them all by surprise!

[Paintrain]

I don't want to re-hash some of the same things that have been said but I will point out a few overlooked factors:

1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

2. The addition of Hunter Smith. His value in the field position game will have a positive impact on the defense which should again, improve the offense by proxy. His biggest impact however may be in the holding position. While I am not a big Suisham fan, he was undone a little last year with Brooks and Plackemier, who were both largely clueless as holders. I've never liked a punter as a holder but at least he's done it and done it with some accomplished kickers (Vanderjagt, Vinatieri) so hopefully Suisham's percentage will improve.

3. We left a ton of points on the field last year. We were one of the worst in the red zone and just by quick recollection we missed out on at least 6 TD (2 Rabach penalties on the same drive nullifying TD passes, Thomas TD called back vs. Arizona, Sellers stuffed, then fumbles next play vs. Cincy, Sellers dropped TD pass vs. Seattle) that could have increased our PPG. We have to execute better but I'd expect increased comfort and experience in the system will allow our guys to do more playing rather than thinking and playing.

[RedskinRat]

Our cadre of WR's need to be able to play far beyond the level they played at last year. Everything else on offense will follow.

The D will be fine and a few defensive TD's would work wonders.

[Zerohero]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Zerohero

This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.

Defensive TD's come some by skill (catch the ball, Carlos!) but some by luck.

The law of averages at some point will come into play and we'll be getting more defensive TD's.

[wolfeskins]

Originally Posted by stu_nna

Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.

thats it right there.

[skinsnut]

my concern in getting to 21 points isn't based on our annual average last year as much as it is the final 8 games when we went 2-6....what did we generate...like 12 pts a game? I think some here are forgetting the collapse of the team in the 2nd half of the season...talking about playoffs is crazy at this point..this team needs to win home games and games against lesser opponents under Zorn.

Zorn needs to learn how to coach by adjustment.
As you recall, we heard all about 2 TE sets all year, but it was rarely done because Zorn just stuck with the basics...it was all he could handle....and at the midpoint of the year, when defenses figured out how to play the skins, he could not adjust because he was a rookie overwhelmed with everything a HC has to do...he had zero hours to develop new plays/schemes...etc...so he focussed on execution alone...which certainly was not good enough.

I surely hope Zorn can develop a playbook double the size of last years.
I frankly dont know why he didn't run more shotgun, double te sets, 4 wr sets, sweeps, screens, trick plays late in the season....his playcalling was nowhere near where it needed to be to be successful.

I do agree that execution alone in yr 2 should improve 2 pts a game. But the reality is additional points per game is generated by scheming and playcalling against your opponents....if we score more points this year, it will be because Zorn has gotten more creative and aggressive in his playcalling based off of scouting weaknesses in our opponents defenses.

I hold out hope...we shall know in the first 4 games if Zorn can offensively adjust or if he will stick with the same formula no matter what like last year.

[roth74va]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

2. The addition of Hunter Smith. His value in the field position game will have a positive impact on the defense which should again, improve the offense by proxy. His biggest impact however may be in the holding position. While I am not a big Suisham fan, he was undone a little last year with Brooks and Plackemier, who were both largely clueless as holders. I've never liked a punter as a holder but at least he's done it and done it with some accomplished kickers (Vanderjagt, Vinatieri) so hopefully Suisham's percentage will improve.

Agreed, I think "Hunter the Punter" will greatly improve our field position, which should lead to more opportunites for points.

[RedskinMike]

Originally Posted by skinsnut

my concern in getting to 21 points isn't based on our annual average last year as much as it is the final 8 games when we went 2-6....what did we generate...like 12 pts a game? I think some here are forgetting the collapse of the team in the 2nd half of the season...talking about playoffs is crazy at this point..this team needs to win home games and games against lesser opponents under Zorn.

Zorn needs to learn how to coach by adjustment.
As you recall, we heard all about 2 TE sets all year, but it was rarely done because Zorn just stuck with the basics...it was all he could handle....and at the midpoint of the year, when defenses figured out how to play the skins, he could not adjust because he was a rookie overwhelmed with everything a HC has to do...he had zero hours to develop new plays/schemes...etc...so he focussed on execution alone...which certainly was not good enough.

I surely hope Zorn can develop a playbook double the size of last years.
I frankly dont know why he didn't run more shotgun, double te sets, 4 wr sets, sweeps, screens, trick plays late in the season....his playcalling was nowhere near where it needed to be to be successful.

I do agree that execution alone in yr 2 should improve 2 pts a game. But the reality is additional points per game is generated by scheming and playcalling against your opponents....if we score more points this year, it will be because Zorn has gotten more creative and aggressive in his playcalling based off of scouting weaknesses in our opponents defenses.

I hold out hope...we shall know in the first 4 games if Zorn can offensively adjust or if he will stick with the same formula no matter what like last year.

Four of the teams we played in the second half were top defenses. People don't seem to ever take that into account.

[backrow]

Originally Posted by skinsnut

my concern in getting to 21 points isn't based on our annual average last year as much as it is the final 8 games when we went 2-6....what did we generate...like 12 pts a game? I think some here are forgetting the collapse of the team in the 2nd half of the season...talking about playoffs is crazy at this point..this team needs to win home games and games against lesser opponents under Zorn.

Zorn needs to learn how to coach by adjustment.
As you recall, we heard all about 2 TE sets all year, but it was rarely done because Zorn just stuck with the basics...it was all he could handle....and at the midpoint of the year, when defenses figured out how to play the skins, he could not adjust because he was a rookie overwhelmed with everything a HC has to do...he had zero hours to develop new plays/schemes...etc...so he focussed on execution alone...which certainly was not good enough.

I surely hope Zorn can develop a playbook double the size of last years.
I frankly dont know why he didn't run more shotgun, double te sets, 4 wr sets, sweeps, screens, trick plays late in the season....his playcalling was nowhere near where it needed to be to be successful.

I do agree that execution alone in yr 2 should improve 2 pts a game. But the reality is additional points per game is generated by scheming and playcalling against your opponents....if we score more points this year, it will be because Zorn has gotten more creative and aggressive in his playcalling based off of scouting weaknesses in our opponents defenses.

I hold out hope...we shall know in the first 4 games if Zorn can offensively adjust or if he will stick with the same formula no matter what like last year.

A bigger playbook, probably not, scheming for that week's opponnent, more probable. Football is a game of exploiting your opponent's weakness; and playing to your own strengths. If you can pound it, keep pounding it. If you can air it out, keep airing it. If you win in the Offensive trenches, you will cause your opponent to give in.

To Mike, above, yes we remember the four teams.

[Pocket$ $traight]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Dockery's addition is getting overlooked a bit, I think with him we got significantly better in drive blocking in short-yardage situations. I like our chances of converting TDs in the red zone by pounding a few more of 'em in there.

But 21 points per game? Probably not. I can't see any of our young WRs stepping up just yet. Maybe in their 3rd year.

Remember, Kelly is essentially a rookie this year due to inexperience thanks to injuries.

I remember short yardage being a problem during Dockery's first tenure. I think it is more important to be able to run consistently to the right so I am hoping that Bridges or Heyer step up. I also heard Doc Walker bring up a good point. Bugel has to find a way to use M. Williams in short yardage. Think Lorenzo Alexander + 75 ilbs. Put him on the wing next to Samuels!

I don't think that 5 points is that far away. The offense should be able to improve by 2 or 3 points just with the additional familiarity. If Thomas, Kelly and Campbell take a couple fo steps forward, 21 points a game should be within reach.

I also think the defense will be better than last year because of additional sacks. If Phat Albert stays healthy and is motivated, they should be a nightmare for offenses.