Tebow or McCoy?

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by wolfeskins

i completely agree with you. there's just something special about tebow. too me, he's got that "it factor" we always hear about.

Don't believe the hype. They thought Carr and Harrington were the shit. Don't get me going about Leinart!!!!!! Tebow is only great when playing the likes of Vandy, OLe Miss, or Florida Atlantic. Other than that he is an above average QB.

[Son Of Man]

I have a clear record as a McCoy supporter so my choice would be the UT star. However, I would trust Shanny and support the drafting of Tim Tebow (alot of upside).

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

Don't believe the hype. They thought Carr and Harrington were the shit. Don't get me going about Leinart!!!!!! Tebow is only great when playing the likes of Vandy, OLe Miss, or Florida Atlantic. Other than that he is an above average QB.

Leinart would have been great if it wasn't for his party habits. He still has a chance to be a top flight QB, but I'm surprised as anyone at how much he's flopped over the last few years.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Leinart would have been great if it wasn't for his party habits. He still has a chance to be a top flight QB, but I'm surprised as anyone at how much he's flopped over the last few years.

All of the overhyped guys are very good QBs Dirtbag, I am just saying they are not gods, and since they tend to play for powerhouse teams in conferences not known for parity they can't handle parity as well as say the very good QBs from above average to average teams. That is why I have been pushing for the "second tier" guys to be looked at by our FO. Those guys have done pretty well facing teams on their talent level or higher. Leinart was a big partier, but his teams could have beaten the low level NFL teams probably like Detroit, Oakland, and Cleveland. Tebow blew chunks facing Bama, and McCoy was simply MIA against Bama for the title. Bradford is the same also. I would hate for us to get one of these guys with a first round pick and he busts and say Dallas or Philly take a gamble with a second tier guy and they get a new franchise QB. We can't afford another Shuler/Ramsey incident or we are in for a long rebuilding effort by Shanny and Allen.

[wolfeskins]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

Don't believe the hype. They thought Carr and Harrington were the shit. Don't get me going about Leinart!!!!!! Tebow is only great when playing the likes of Vandy, OLe Miss, or Florida Atlantic. Other than that he is an above average QB.

well that right there makes him an upgrade over campbell.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by wolfeskins

well that right there makes him an upgrade over campbell.

JC was 14th in passing yards with a crappy team around him. Tebow had a stacked team around him in Florida. What happened at the end when the Gators played another stacked team( the only other real strong team in the SEC) for the SEC title? Tebow choked then cried like a mama's boy.

[GTripp0012]

Here's how they rate in key statistical categories compared to QBs drafted in the last five years, and QBs in this draft class:

Tebow
QB Starts = Strong
Completion % = Above Average
TD Rate = Elite
INT Rate = Elite
Sack Rate = Average
Career variance = Above Average

McCoy
QB Starts = Elite
Completion % = Elite
TD Rate = Above Average
INT Rate = Average
Sack Rate = Above Average
Career variance = Elite

For comparison

Bradford
QB Starts = Average
Completion % = Strong
TD Rate = Elite
INT Rate = Elite
Sack Rate = Elite
Career variance = Below Average

Clausen
QB Starts = Above Average
Completion % = Average
TD Rate = Average
INT Rate = Above Average
Sack Rate = Weak
Career variance = Average

Caviet: TD and INT rates usually don't translate well to the pros. My reasoning: team effects and offensive systems can generate a lot of TD/INT production that isn't really due to the quarterback.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Here's how they rate in key statistical categories compared to QBs drafted in the last five years, and QBs in this draft class:

Tebow
QB Starts = Strong
Completion % = Above Average
TD Rate = Elite
INT Rate = Elite
Sack Rate = Average
Career variance = Above Average

McCoy
QB Starts = Elite
Completion % = Elite
TD Rate = Above Average
INT Rate = Average
Sack Rate = Above Average
Career variance = Elite

For comparison

Bradford
QB Starts = Average
Completion % = Strong
TD Rate = Elite
INT Rate = Elite
Sack Rate = Elite
Career variance = Below Average

Clausen
QB Starts = Above Average
Completion % = Average
TD Rate = Average
INT Rate = Above Average
Sack Rate = Weak
Career variance = Average

Caviet: TD and INT rates usually don't translate well to the pros. My reasoning: team effects and offensive systems can generate a lot of TD/INT production that isn't really due to the quarterback.

Are these career numbers or most recent year numbers?

[tryfuhl]

While I think that Tebow could end up being the bigger surprise I'll go with the proven. Don't care how much Tebow "wants it"

Whoever we get he better be good!

[CRedskinsRule]

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?

I can give you my baselines for averages and medians:

All data includes drafted players since 2005.

QB Starts - median 33, average 32
Completion percentage* - median 61%, average 61%

*(the average of players expected to be drafted in this class is actually pushing 64%. I split the difference and used 62.5% because of the possibility that the spread concepts behind this increase are here to stay, and the possibility that this is just a strong class).

TD Rate - 5.86%
INT rate - 2.64%
Sack Rate* - median 5.8%, average 6.0%

*(This class is median 5.2%, average 5.0%. I used these baselines instead of the historically higher ones)

Career deviation was literally the standard deviation of the spread of values over the four years of a players college eligibility, with passing attempts per year determining the value. 12 was the average, although, I don't really have anyway to make that number meaningful. I don't think variance is inherently bad: it's bad in highly rated prospects, but good in lower rated prospects.

Bradford's numbers are really completely off all the charts, but his career path was highly unorthodox and his incredible TD/INT rate is unlikely to translate anyway.

[Eknox]

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by Eknox

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[GTripp0012]

Within about one point of the median value, a player was average. Within about two points, above or below average. Outside of four points/values from the median/mean, strong or weak, and elite players were among the best two or three ever in that statistical recording since 2005.

All statistics are college statistics. Pro success/failures had no relevance in my analysis.

[SBXVII]

I'll take one hell of a trade in order to get Bradford next year. If we try any and all possible trade scenarios and the option is too expensive then I think I still like McCoy over Clausen. Reports were he was the next best in accuracy. His arm strength was not as good as Bradfords or Clausen but we have arm strength in JC and the new Vet. We need accuracy.