Better Rookie Season Stats Griffin or Luck?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by skinster

...how can I say Luck when this question is so open ended?

Keep in mind that it hard to fit the theme of an entire thread into a thread title without simplifying.

I know its naive to rely on people actually reading the OP but there is little alternative a title is simple too brief to convey the thought/theme expressed in the OP for the thread.

But also how is question in the thread title so open ended?
Its asking specifically about statistical performance which is pretty much cut and dry its not asking for a vague undefined value judgement like 'which QB is better'


BTW-What does Griffin being your potential favorite player have to do with an objective opinion about projected statistical performance.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Bucky Brooks

Andrew Luck-led Colts will be much better than you think in 2012

Andrew Luck-led Colts will be much better than you think in 2012 - NFL.com

[MTK]

I do like the rookie TE's they added, but they'll be facing a learning curve along with Luck. What are realistic expectations for the Colts? I'd say 5-6 wins.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

What are realistic expectations for the Colts? I'd say 5-6 wins.

I can't remember where but last week on the radio I heard that Vegas had the Colts 6-10, I feel pretty good about the Burgundy and Gold chances to have a better record then 6-10.

But, I guess I'm the only one that admits that I not only want a better W/L record I want statisitcal superiority over Luck this year.

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I do like the rookie TE's they added, but they'll be facing a learning curve along with Luck.

If there was ever a QB prepared to handle the learning curve its supposed to be Luck right?
Afterall 2 spread QBs without an offseason program were able to light it up right away in a new offense.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I can't remember where but last week on the radio I heard that Vegas had the Colts 6-10, I feel pretty good about the Burgundy and Gold chances to have a better record then 6-10.

But, I guess I'm the only one that admits that I not only want a better W/L record I want statisitcal superiority over Luck this year.

If there was ever a QB prepared to handle the learning curve its supposed to be Luck right?
Afterall 2 spread QBs without an offseason program were able to light it up right away in a new offense.

The only stat I care for RG3 to have over Luck is in wins. Sounds like your only concerned with numbers so you have something to point to next year. The rookie season will not tell if Luck was worth all the hype. Hell some pointed to RG3 as the better prospect. Not sure what your really asking.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by firstdown

...Sounds like your only concerned with numbers

Rrrrriiiggghhhttt..........

Originally Posted by 30gut

First and foremost I want the Redskins to win more games this year...

Originally Posted by you

so you have something to point to next year. The rookie season will not tell if Luck was worth all the hype. Hell some pointed to RG3 as the better prospect.

I'm not sure how long you've been watching football but that's what happens people fans/media compare stats.

Personally I hope the same people that tout Luck as the best prospect since Peyton Manning and a clearly superior prospect to Cam Newton hold Cam's level of production as the benchmark for Luck's rookie season success.

BTW, I'm one of those people that think RG3 is the better prospect.

Originally Posted by you

Not sure what your really asking.

C'mon, really?
My questions are obvious and very clearly stated in the title and the OP (which you quoted)
But for whatever reason you've chosen to ignore them and argue a point that I'm not making, which is fine, maybe you think this is a pointless topic which is also fine you certainly don't have to answer or agree.
But what I'm asking is quite clear and whether you accept it or not Griff and Luck are always going to compared to each other.

Anyways I'll repeat the questions here: (although I'm sure you've already seen them)

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

What rookie season stats do you think Griffin and Luck will post?
(its not that complicated its like asking what stats will Trent Richarson and David Wilson put up)

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype?
**notice I'm asking a question here: but my inference from your statements is that Luck could post any rookie season stats and still justify the hype because rookie season stats don't matter? Would that be correct?

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by 30gut

First and foremost I want the Redskins to win more games this year but I have to admit a strong secondary desire: I want Griffin to post better offensive numbers then Luck.

At first I was confident that Griffin's superior production was a certainity because of my perceptions of the Colts offense.

But, after looking the Colts draft, offseason moves and returning players I'm not as certain that Griff will put up better stats then Luck.

Follow on questions not included in the Title:

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

What rookie season stats do you think Griffin and Luck will post?

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype? (60.0%--4,051yds--7.8ypa--21 TDs--17 Ints--84.5 Rating +706 rush yds--14 rush TDs)

A rookie season does not make or break a QB. If it did then some of the best to play the game would have never gone on to become great.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by firstdown

A rookie season does not make or break a QB.

Very true and patently obvious.
But you're creating a maybe unintentional strawman.
I certainly haven't said that a rookie season makes or breaks a QB and I don't think anyone else in this thread has...

Any thoughts on which QB (Luck or Griffin) has better stats in their non-career predicitve/non-make or break rookie season?

or

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

or

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype?

[MTK]

I think we'd all like to see RG3 put up some nice numbers, but in the end I don't care how he compares stats-wise to Luck or to anyone else.

[30gut]

Simply put I'm asking: which QB (Griffin/Luck) will put up better stats?

Here's some false assumptions about my question:

o I'm not saying that stats are more important then WINs you would think this goes without saying (especially since I actually say that first and foremost I want more WINs)

o I'm not making a value judgement nor a using their rookie season stats as an indication or predictive measure of their respective careers

I'm just curious about the our perceptions or expectations of Griffin and Lucks rookie seasons statistical production.

I'm also curious about what type of rookie season production (if any) that Luck needs to hold on to the mantle of being a both a better prospect then Cam Newton and the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway.

[30gut]

Maybe a poll would make things simpler?

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Maybe a poll would make things simpler?

Added a poll...attempted to show no bias whatsoever

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Added a poll...attempted to show no bias whatsoever

Thanks.

[CRedskinsRule]

30Gut - I think you keep confusing the issue when you tack on as an after thought about what Luck needs to do to prove/disprove the best prospect issue, as that probably is a long term question. Really will take 2 years at least to answer that statement.

Your OP/thread topic is a lot easier. I think Griffin has the better first season stats, he is coming into an offense/defense that has been together, and can fit into with his piece. In other words, we aren't building a lot of new pieces, even the WR's we added are veterans, and should just plug in, as opposed to rookies trying to figure out the whole NFL thing. Compare that to the Colts who have new everything and will take a year to get the whole offensive scheme and direction, plus having many new players, and losing lots of key veterans.

[30gut]

btw-
thanks for getting the thread back on track

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

30Gut - I think you keep confusing the issue when you tack on as an after thought about what Luck needs to do to prove/disprove the best prospect issue, as that probably is a long term question. Really will take 2 years at least to answer that statement.

Of course it takes more then a rookie season to predict or know what type a QB a rookie will become.(I believe it takes about 36 starts depending on schematic continuity)
But, again I'm not asking for a career prediction based on this season.
I'm asking for opinion on whether or not there is a benchmark level of production Luck(i.e. the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway) needs to reach THIS season to justify the hype.

And if someone thinks there is a statistical benchmark what is it?

Maybe there is no rookie year benchmark for some people.
Maybe some think regardless of his rookie year production the hype is warranted?

Maybe some think production on par with Blaine Gabbert is good enough to warrant his hype or maybe some others think production on must be at least on par with Andy Dalton?

Its just something I'm curious about that I didn't think warrants its own thread, so I figured it fit here.*shrugs*

I think Griffin has the better first season stats,

Cool, what do you think the ballpark will be? Close or wide margin?

Compare that to the Colts who have new everything and will take a year to get the whole offensive scheme and direction, plus having many new players, and losing lots of key veterans.

When I look at the success of Dalton and Newton in their new schemes without the benefit of an offseason, I have a hard time considering everything being new a stumbling block.
I think the Colts have replaced almost as many pieces as they've lost and still have enough pieces to field a quality offense.