Redskins Free Agency 2016

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

keep telling yourself that. let's extrapolate some other numbers from 4 games and randomly declare that's proof without considering reversion to mean and completely dismiss anything that doesn't fit our argument, like an entire year where both players played in the same system, because reasons!

btw, paul had 8 game starts, and most of them were 1 catch for 7 yard affairs. 2 of his games without reed ended up with 17 yards combined, which plunges his projected total down below 900 yards if you're only counting games reed didn't play (you can throw in his 17 yards from the TB game too if you want).

i'm not saying he's bad, and obviously kirk is going to help him, but you're not pulling reed for him. if you're managing people and you want to resign reed, pulling him on every 1st and 10 and denying him starts is a great way to make sure that doesn't happen.

Why would you look at Paul's receiving production in games where Reed played? The point is to illustrate that when Paul is given the role of being the primary receiving TE, he produces. Of course when Reed plays he is going to get first crack at the receiving targets, I've acknowledged all along that he's a better option in that regard. When Reed played in those games, Niles was given more of the in-line blocking responsibility, which speaks to why he didn't end up with huge receiving games. But that doesn't mean he can't do it, look at that four game production. And you're going to tell me after watching those games that that level of receiving production isn't sustainable? Why, because reversion to the mean, basically the statistical version of 'well I don't know he'll come back to Earth but I know he's never done this before, soo...'. Reversion to the mean works well when you're talking about a 30 year old first baseman whose track record is long established hitting .400 on balls put into play, but it means exactly jack squat when you're talking about a breakout player like Paul. Turn on the tape, what's not sustainable? The separating speed? The route running? The nose for the soft spot in the zone?

Get out of here with this reversion to the mean nonsense.

[over the mountain]

Are we really discussing Reed v Paul?

Paul has been decent and appeared to be geared up for a breakout season last year per coaches and him before injury but ...

Reed is a matchup nightmare that dictates coverage like only a handful of receiving threats in the entire league can. I dont see it as a Reed v Paul thing. Also, I think listing Paul as the starter week 1 last year was coaching motivation for Reed.

it seemed Reed played through some pain last year which was nice to see. I hope he continues that trend. Scares me that he is only 1 concussion away ...

[Meks]

Lulz at the current discussion. Reed is a FUCKING MONSTER. PERIOD. I like Niles alot, i think both on the field at the same time and rotatijg in and out will be aqesome for us. But theres not any comparison right now lol... i just hope and pray gruden is smarter than spurierr when running or passong with CERTAIN personell on the field lolllllll

[Schneed10]

PS sticky that post because I can't wait to throw it back in your faces when Niles is right on Reed's heels this year for snaps.

[Schneed10]

As for the managing people point, Reed will not have a problem with not being on the field on the opening play. Players don't care about that. He will care about snaps, targets, receptions, and especially those of the red zone variety.

He'll get his 1000+ yards WHEN Jay plays Paul on most running downs.

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

[SCRedskinsFan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

As for the managing people point, Reed will not have a problem with not being on the field on the opening play. Players don't care about that. He will care about snaps, targets, receptions, and especially those of the red zone variety.

He'll get his 1000+ yards WHEN Jay plays Paul on most running downs.

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

Not so fast oh great Schneed person.

Forget about all the fancy stats. Forget about who you (or Jay Gruden) like better. Just tell me this: Who do you think would be picked up first by another team if both were on the market as free agents.

See what I mean? It's not so hard, Reed>>>>>Paul. Not even close.

And I happen to like Niles Paul a lot. Good football player.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SCRedskinsFan

Not so fast oh great Schneed person.

Forget about all the fancy stats. Forget about who you (or Jay Gruden) like better. Just tell me this: Who do you think would be picked up first by another team if both were on the market as free agents.

See what I mean? It's not so hard, Reed>>>>>Paul. Not even close.

And I happen to like Niles Paul a lot. Good football player.

Yeah because you pay for production in the free agent market. Smart organizations build through the draft because they're looking for CAPABILITY, and when they get a good coach who recognizes the capability, they get production by putting the player in position to succeed.

What I'm saying isn't that Jordan Reed isn't a boss, I'm saying Niles is one too. Possibly almost as much of one. I'm glad we got Davis, because this means we are planning lots of multiple TE sets, because Jay knows how good Paul is. He's not going to take him off the field much. Davis will get in line blocking responsibility, Reed will be the dominant receiving threat and our red zone moneymaker, and Paul will be the jack of all trades. He'll come out of the h-back, he'll motion out, he'll block down, all of it.

When you have a guy that can both run AND block like Niles, it allows you to disguise the play call. If you put Reed in the slot you know what's going to happen. Defense probably still can't stop it, but Niles will still get on the field because his skill set is such that we won't tip off the defense.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

As for the managing people point, Reed will not have a problem with not being on the field on the opening play. Players don't care about that. He will care about snaps, targets, receptions, and especially those of the red zone variety.

He'll get his 1000+ yards WHEN Jay plays Paul on most running downs.

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

players don't care about starts? and pulling someone from playing 33%+ of available snaps wouldn't bother him? what are you smoking?

man, i'm sure glad you're not in charge.

[30gut]

Reed's ability to create separation is....well I thought clearly evident that it's on a higher level then most TEs not just on the team but in the league.

I also think Davis is a better blocker then Niles, and that's before considering Niles is coming off a season ending injury and further Davis has had a career of proven production where even a down year is only 1 catch less then Niles best year

Either way you slice it the TE group got a lot better with his addition

[kct1975]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Reed's ability to create separation is....well I thought clearly evident that it's on a higher level then most TEs not just on the team but in the league.

I also think Davis is a better blocker then Niles, and that's before considering Niles is coming off a season ending injury and further Davis has had a career of proven production where even a down year is only 1 catch less then Niles best year

Either way you slice it the TE group got a lot better with his addition

I completely agree!

Reed, Carrier, and Davis...all Good TE that can catch down field.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Reed's ability to create separation is....well I thought clearly evident that it's on a higher level then most TEs not just on the team but in the league.

I also think Davis is a better blocker then Niles, and that's before considering Niles is coming off a season ending injury and further Davis has had a career of proven production where even a down year is only 1 catch less then Niles best year

Either way you slice it the TE group got a lot better with his addition

I think Davis overall abilities have fallen off a cliff the last 2 years...blocking, catching, etc.

Clearly Reed had his breakout season last year and I thought Gruden had a lot to do with it. But the guy is super talented as a pass catcher...I don't think its really a fair comparison of Reed vs Niles. Reed is more Jimmy Graham than Gronk. Gronk is a TE...the best TE in the league. Graham and Reed are hybrid WR who crush LB, safety match ups. Ironically Paul was a WR coming out, but is more TE than Reed now.

Overall, Im really worried about Niles health. Davis signing shows the teams concern. But, McC has done an excellent job with the core TE group coming into this season.

Reed, Paul, Davis, Paulson, and Carrier are diverse, talented group. I fully expect us to carry 4 going into the season because it crushed our running game last season dealing with the injuries. Niles Paul is an extremely valuable piece if he can return healthy.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

players don't care about starts? and pulling someone from playing 33%+ of available snaps wouldn't bother him? what are you smoking?

man, i'm sure glad you're not in charge.

When Jay makes another smart call and plays Paul on running downs, I expect you to take my purple mushroom stamp on your forehead and like it.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

When Jay makes another smart call and plays Paul on running downs, I expect you to take my purple mushroom stamp on your forehead and like it.

where did i say they wouldn't do that on SOME running downs? they're just not going to pull him every 1st down or every running down (too much of a tell, and reed is a distraction in the same kind of way as DJ on certain calls). they'll probably run a lot of two TE too (well, they did that last year, but compton was pretty pathetic).

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

lol .. so says the guy who talks about maintaining a respectable and civil level of discourse and discussion on this board ... i remember when i did a skins v eagles week thread poking generic fun at philly fat asses eating cheese steaks and you got offended ... now you are telling ppl in jest to eat assholes .... you're a double standard type person i see.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

lol .. so says the guy who talks about maintaining a respectable and civil level of discourse and discussion on this board ... i remember when i did a skins v eagles week thread poking generic fun at philly fat asses eating cheese steaks and you got offended ... now you are telling ppl in jest to eat assholes .... you're a double standard type person i see.

Yes. I'm also hilarious.