Updated Title: Will Portis Shine Again in a West Coast Offense?

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by irish

Who's argueing against Portis? I said he will still be productive but his best days are behind him.

I don't know about that. I think if he comes in healthy this year he's poised for another big year. Given the circumstances, I think he had a big year in 07. Comparing stats is good to an extent, but you can't compare his performance here to denver too much because he's only had a fully healthy o line for most of one of his years here - 05. Even then, Thomas got hurt in the dallas game & missed the end +playoffs.

[irish]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Did you not just say Portis seems to have something bothering him all the time and has to take every couple of plays off, yet Addai is there on the field playing play after play?

Yep I said that. I'm not argueing against him, I'm just stating my observations. Like I have said 3 or 4 times now, he will still be productive but he is on the decline not the incline. He might pop out a big year but its not something he could sustain for 2 or 3 more years.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by irish

Yep I said that. I'm not argueing against him, I'm just stating my observations. Like I have said 3 or 4 times now, he will still be productive but he is on the decline not the incline. He might pop out a big year but its not something he could sustain for 2 or 3 more years.

Ok, so help me out here. Your observation is that Addai is a reliable back who can be counted on play after play, yet Portis is not?

[over the mountain]

at the risk of getting red flagged i agree with irish; portis is near the end of the "prime" part of his career and 2-3 years from now i think we will need a new runningback.

(please dont red flag or give me negative rep points, while i know writing something remotely negative about a skin gets you hell on here, this is just my opinion. i love the skins and portis and jerome and sheriff gonna getcha and warpath.)

[irish]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Ok, so help me out here. Your observation is that Addai is a reliable back who can be counted on play after play, yet Portis is not?

It seems every time I watch an indy game Addai is in the game and running hard while it seems like when I watch the skins CP is coming out after a couple of plays and on the sideline with his helmet off sucking wind.

[GTripp0012]

Portis is right now in the prime age for a running back, 27, but very rarely do players at age 27 have quite as many carries as Portis had in the past.

Look, if you are saying that you are 100% not concerned that we've already guaranteed Portis' 2009 salary to him, you are simply fooling yourself here.

Nobody in this thread yet believes that Portis won't be productive this season. But, again, it's hard to get a gauge on exactly why he was so unproductive (3.9 YPC, career ave. 4.5) last season. There are a bunch of possible reasons and it was probably a combination of all of them:

1) The offensive line was decimated.

2) He's been worked too hard too often. (343 carries in 2004, 352 in 2005, 325 in 2006)

3) He's been around for awhile, and it's possible his actual age is hiding the age of his body. (Broke into the NFL at age 21--7 years ago)

4) He could have been hiding an injury.

Again, probably was a combination of the first three factors there, but facts are facts, and reasons two and three are only going to get worse with time.

Of course, reason one is already fixed. So he could be in line for a career year. And one of his closest similarity scores is Emmitt Smith. He should be better than last year pretty easily. I'm just wondering how long before a 2007-type year becomes the norm for CP.

[GTripp0012]

Also, don't forget what happened to this potential hall of famer after his age-26 season:

Terrell Davis Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by irish

It seems every time I watch an indy game Addai is in the game and running hard while it seems like when I watch the skins CP is coming out after a couple of plays and on the sideline with his helmet off sucking wind.

Ok, fair enough. I disagree, but that's fine.

[MTK]

Addai is probably a weak example to be using. He's not exactly an iron man and his workload has been pretty light these last 2 years in comparison to someone like Portis.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by irish

It seems every time I watch an indy game Addai is in the game and running hard while it seems like when I watch the skins CP is coming out after a couple of plays and on the sideline with his helmet off sucking wind.

More impressionistic generalizations that are the constant bane of fan conversation. Last year Addai had 261 carries and Marion Barber (who I am assuming you were referring to with your Barber comment earlier) ahd 204. Meanwhile Portis had 325 carries. Kenton Keith, Addai's primary backup, had 121 carries while Ladell Betts had 93. Even ignoring the fact that a two-back rotation isn't such a bad thing, I'd say that your commentary about Portis continually returning to the sideline to "suck wind" is just inaccurate.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Portis is right now in the prime age for a running back, 27, but very rarely do players at age 27 have quite as many carries as Portis had in the past.

Look, if you are saying that you are 100% not concerned that we've already guaranteed Portis' 2009 salary to him, you are simply fooling yourself here.

Nobody in this thread yet believes that Portis won't be productive this season. But, again, it's hard to get a gauge on exactly why he was so unproductive (3.9 YPC, career ave. 4.5) last season. There are a bunch of possible reasons and it was probably a combination of all of them:

1) The offensive line was decimated.

2) He's been worked too hard too often. (343 carries in 2004, 352 in 2005, 325 in 2006)

3) He's been around for awhile, and it's possible his actual age is hiding the age of his body. (Broke into the NFL at age 21--7 years ago)

4) He could have been hiding an injury.

Again, probably was a combination of the first three factors there, but facts are facts, and reasons two and three are only going to get worse with time.

Of course, reason one is already fixed. So he could be in line for a career year. And one of his closest similarity scores is Emmitt Smith. He should be better than last year pretty easily. I'm just wondering how long before a 2007-type year becomes the norm for CP.

So on YPC alone you're saying his season was unproductive?

[GTripp0012]

Portis also fumbled 6 times last year and that was 2nd highest in the NFL. Based on his career though, that should not be a problem ever again.

He was also very, very, poor in power situations, but I'm willing to throw 100% of that on the offensive line situation.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

More impressionistic generalizations that are the constant bane of fan conversation. Last year Addai had 261 carries and Marion Barber (who I am assuming you were referring to with your Barber comment earlier) ahd 204. Meanwhile Portis had 325 carries. Kenton Keith, Addai's primary backup, had 121 carries while Ladell Betts had 93. Even ignoring the fact that a two-back rotation isn't such a bad thing, I'd say that your commentary about Portis continually returning to the sideline to "suck wind" is just inaccurate.

tell me about it

[MTK]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

at the risk of getting red flagged i agree with irish; portis is near the end of the "prime" part of his career and 2-3 years from now i think we will need a new runningback.

(please dont red flag or give me negative rep points, while i know writing something remotely negative about a skin gets you hell on here, this is just my opinion. i love the skins and portis and jerome and sheriff gonna getcha and warpath.)

You're not going to get negative rep for that. As long as your opinion is well stated and backed up with some solid though behind it you have nothing to worry about. And disagreeing with a moderator does not get you negative rep despite what some idiots may think.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Portis is right now in the prime age for a running back, 27, but very rarely do players at age 27 have quite as many carries as Portis had in the past.

Look, if you are saying that you are 100% not concerned that we've already guaranteed Portis' 2009 salary to him, you are simply fooling yourself here.

Nobody in this thread yet believes that Portis won't be productive this season. But, again, it's hard to get a gauge on exactly why he was so unproductive (3.9 YPC, career ave. 4.5) last season. There are a bunch of possible reasons and it was probably a combination of all of them:

1) The offensive line was decimated.

2) He's been worked too hard too often. (343 carries in 2004, 352 in 2005, 325 in 2006)

3) He's been around for awhile, and it's possible his actual age is hiding the age of his body. (Broke into the NFL at age 21--7 years ago)

4) He could have been hiding an injury.

Again, probably was a combination of the first three factors there, but facts are facts, and reasons two and three are only going to get worse with time.

Of course, reason one is already fixed. So he could be in line for a career year. And one of his closest similarity scores is Emmitt Smith. He should be better than last year pretty easily. I'm just wondering how long before a 2007-type year becomes the norm for CP.

Running backs typically fall off a cliff after they turn 30 (or after they rush for 370 carries in a single season), almost invariably actually, unless your name is Emmitt Smith or a select few others (on age rather than carries). I'd say given his size and physical style of play the same is in store for Portis. I'd point out, though, that another guy who compares favorably in terms of both size and workload with Portis is Curtis Martin. Through his first 6 seasons Martin carried the ball 2010 times while Portis has carried 1710 times. Martin remained highly productive until year 10 (when he both turned 31 and had 371 carries ... a virtual RB death sentence). I'd say we could probably expect something approaching that sort of career arch for Portis, barring a major injury of course.

The thing that ticks me off is the notion that Portis was so much better in Denver and that he has not lived up to expectations in Washington. That is the impression given, not by you obviously, but at the open of this thread. I find that frustrating and lacking perspective.

Curtis Martin Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clinton Portis Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com