Battle for first place Skins vs Gints pregame thread

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Bad news about Culliver. Never like seeing anyone get hurt like that. With that being said, he hasn't really been playing well. I assume we'll be looking for a corner or two during the off season. I guess Hall will step in but he's going to seriously get toasted Sunday.

Jalen Ramsey (Although I think he is better at S than CB)
Vernon Hargraves III
Tre'Davious White

those are the top 3 secondary players in college right now

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Jalen Ramsey (Although I think he is better at S than CB)
Vernon Hargraves III
Tre'Davious White

those are the top 3 secondary players in college right now

Hargraves is the best cb In football.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Jalen Ramsey (Although I think he is better at S than CB)
Vernon Hargraves III
Tre'Davious White

those are the top 3 secondary players in college right now

I'm a FSU fan. Ramsey is the man. He'd be our best player at either position. Would love to have him. But hopefully we're not picking high enough to get him or Hargraves.

[Chico23231]

Washington Redskins lose CB Chris Culliver for season to torn ACL

Confirmed. Damn

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Washington Redskins lose CB Chris Culliver for season to torn ACL

Confirmed. Damn

He's been a huge disappointed anyway honestly

[Buffalo Bob]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Washington Redskins lose CB Chris Culliver for season to torn ACL

Confirmed. Damn

He really didn't look good even before he was hobbled, with Goldson regressing and D-Hall injured on and off the expected major improvement to the secondary never materialized. I would say it is now the major weak spot on the team, coming in a close second is the O-line's run blocking.
Both have been decimated with injuries. I think with decent health this could have been a 10 win team this year.

[skinsfaninok]

This game is even bigger now because we'll most likely be playing against matt Cassell in next week

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

This game is even bigger now because we'll most likely be playing against matt Cassell in next week

Yup after what i saw yesterday you can almost pencil us in at 7-6. Bears on the road will be tough. Bills and Giants at home. This game on Sunday is a big time CODE RED, big time.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Our pass defense is going to struggle. We really need to have a game where we actually stop the rush and hurry the QB.

We're due to beat the Giants, we just have to be.

[CRedskinsRule]

Past 12 games against the Giants:
09/24/2015 A L 32-21
12/14/2014 A L 24-13
09/25/2014 H L 45-14
12/29/2013 A L 20-6
12/01/2013 H L 24-17
12/03/2012 H W 17-16
10/21/2012 A L 27-23
12/18/2011 A W 23-10
09/11/2011 H W 28-14
01/02/2011 H L 17-14
12/05/2010 A L 31-7
12/21/2009 H L 45-12

3 wins, 9 losses. I don't think any other team has our number like the Giants. Or that we have any other team we just can't game plan for. Even the 2012 win was more about the magic of that season. This season doesn't feel magical, it feels more like plodding improvement. I don't see plodding improvement stopping Eli-Odell, or making KC less turnover prone to the Giants (8 ints to them in 3 games), or massively improving his qbr (39.7, 11!, and 5.5!!).

Also, some of the people who keep calling for the run game just need to stop because it's simply not the answer for this team and this oline. Morris most definitely is off, and Jones is good but fumble prone. CT may be the best answer, but he works best if the passing game works. It amazes me that some on here just keep screaming for it, when it so clearly isn't the panacea for the Redskins woes. We have won, when the passing game has been on. We have lost when the passing game is off. The run has not and is not going to be what turns this team in the right direction.

KC qbr vs W/L
53.4... L
83.4... W
23.2... L
78.7....W
36.0... L
52.6... L
76.9... W
39.7... L
72.4... W
38.2 .. L

all 4 wins, his qbr was over 70. the losses were all less than 60. Even acknowledging the drops against the Pats, if this team had consistent average to good QB play we would be in first place probably by 1 to 2 games.

It's not the run game's fault for inconsistent qb play nor is the run game a solution for inconsistent qb play. It's just not.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

...all 4 wins, his qbr was over 70. the losses were all less than 60. Even acknowledging the drops against the Pats, if this team had consistent average to good QB play we would be in first place probably by 1 to 2 games.

It's not the run game's fault for inconsistent qb play nor is the run game a solution for inconsistent qb play. It's just not.

Kudos for culling the stats. Question though...the 4 wins with the qbr over 70 what was the run game like in those games?

I agree that with you that with good QB play this team is better and also agree its not the run games "fault" for inconsistent QB play.

But a running game certainly helps the QB and it helps the team as whole by keeping the opposing offense off the field and allowing the defense to stay fresh through the oft overlooked 'hidden' stat of time of possession.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Kudos for culling the stats. Question though...the 4 wins with the qbr over 70 what was the run game like in those games?

I agree that with you that with good QB play this team is better and also agree its not the run games "fault" for inconsistent QB play.

But a running game certainly helps the QB and it helps the team as whole by keeping the opposing offense off the field and allowing the defense to stay fresh through the oft overlooked 'hidden' stat of time of possession.

Fair question, and I hadn't looked, but here they are:
starting game 1:
ATT Yds AVG
37 161 4.4 L
37 182 4.9 W
20 88 4.4 L
32 127 4.0 W
24 51 2.1 L
17 34 2.0 L
19 50 2.6 W
15 37 2.5 L
31 209 6.7 W
12 14 1.2 (ugh) L

So 3 of our 4 wins we averaged 4.0 or better, but 2 of 6 losses we also did.

In one of our wins we averaged 2.6 yds(vs TB)

I don't think it's that telling, especially if you take out the Saints win, because we simply manhandled them in all facets.

The most telling thing to me is that in the 2 early games (MIA and NYG) where KC was off (38.2, 39.7) and the running game was on (161 yds, and 80 yds, avg 4.4 yds) we still lost. IF the running game was the solution, we would have won one game(especially the Miami game) with it.

All that said, it is clear the coaching staff has given up on it's effectiveness starting with Atl, since then, tries ATT are 24,17,19,15,31,12. I would say that shows they have no faith in the run game.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

...So 3 of our 4 wins we averaged 4.0 or better, but 2 of 6 losses we also did.

In one of our wins we averaged 2.6 yds(vs TB)

I don't think it's that telling, especially if you take out the Saints win, because we simply manhandled them in all facets.

To each their own. For me you can't simply 'take away' a game. And 3 out 4 wins having a 4.0 ypc seems like a positive correlation to me...but never paid attention in stats class.

The most telling thing to me is that in the 2 early games (MIA and NYG) where KC was off (38.2, 39.7) and the running game was on (161 yds, and 80 yds, avg 4.4 yds) we still lost. IF the running game was the solution, we would have won one game(especially the Miami game) with it.

Like I said before, sub-par QB isn't excused by lack of rushing game and likewise having a rushing game doesn't insulate a game from poor QB play. If you turn the ball over...you're gonna lose that concept has been proven in football. So, I wouldn't expect having a run game to overcome turnovers.

All that said, it is clear the coaching staff has given up on it's effectiveness starting with Atl, since then, tries ATT are 24,17,19,15,31,12. I would say that shows they have no faith in the run game.

I'm not so sure what you mean by given up on the effectiveness of the run. IF they don't have faith in the run game it doesn't make them right.

I think it shows what can happen when a pass first offense is allowed to operate unchecked. I think it shows a lack of commitment to the run. But I have no doubt the run game could be better if the staff had the inclination and skill to make it work. I don't think there run concepts are sound, it no surprise to me it doesn't work. Jay/McVay don't really care about and it shows.

I would bet dollars to doughnuts that Bobby Turner/Rick Dennison among other coaches could take this same personnel and produce a top 10 run game.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

To each their own. For me you can't simply 'take away' a game. And 3 out 4 wins having a 4.0 ypc seems like a positive correlation to me...but never paid attention in stats class.

Like I said before, sub-par QB isn't excused by lack of rushing game and likewise having a rushing game doesn't insulate a game from poor QB play. If you turn the ball over...you're gonna lose that concept has been proven in football. So, I wouldn't expect having a run game to overcome turnovers.

I'm not so sure what you mean by given up on the effectiveness of the run. IF they don't have faith in the run game it doesn't make them right.

I think it shows what can happen when a pass first offense is allowed to operate unchecked. I think it shows a lack of commitment to the run. But I have no doubt the run game could be better if the staff had the inclination and skill to make it work. I don't think there run concepts are sound, it no surprise to me it doesn't work. Jay/McVay don't really care about and it shows.

I would bet dollars to doughnuts that Bobby Turner/Rick Dennison among other coaches could take this same personnel and produce a top 10 run game.

Well we can agree to disagree.

Using KC's stat's there was a 1:1 correlation qbr>70, we win. <70 we lose, regardless of what the run game did. The run game though had strong games (avg >4) and we lost, and weak games (<4) and we won. So to me no direct correlation.

You say you would not expect the run game to overcome INT's, but good passing games did overcome Fumbles
in the 4 wins, we had 0 ints, but 3 fumbles (1 each in 3 wins)
in 3 of our 6 losses we had 1+ int in each, and 1+ fumbles so those were bad on both parts
in the other 3 losses, we had 1+ int, and 0 fumbles.

So, in 3 wins, the passing game covered fumbles, but the running game covered 0 bad qb days.


This discussion began by my saying calling for the running game isn't a panacea to KC's bad days. I think all these numbers bear that statement out. If KC has a good day, a good running game is a nice add and makes the game more fun to watch, but if KC is on an off day, switching to a run centric offense has not shown to be a solution for this team. The strongest example of that is the Miami game, when Lavaou was in, and we had our 2nd best rushing output but KC was off . the Saints game was the best rushing output, but KC was on on that day too, so they served as a good compliment to each other. In the Miami game KC was bad, 2 int, 188 total yards, 67.7% completion Percent, and we lost. Compare that to the TB game, KC was good, 0int, 305 yds, 82.5% completion, but the Rush game was mostly ineffective, 1 fumble, 50 total yards, 2.1 average, and we won.

I don't believe that anything in all these numbers, or in watching the games as they've been played, should legitimately give someone the impression that a run heavy scheme, with this personnel (Oline and Oline coaching philosophy), would lead to better results than sticking with the pass oriented game and focusing on improving either KC's consistency or a qb who is not on the team yet.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

...
To each their own. For me you can't simply 'take away' a game. And 3 out 4 wins having a 4.0 ypc seems like a positive correlation to me...but never paid attention in stats class.

...

In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes excluded from the data set.
For more information please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

The Saints game was an outlier, because the score and manhandling was so extreme that the run game nor the pass game alone won or sunk that game. At points, we could have given JR the ball and he would have gotten 5-10 yds.