How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

A guy with Russell's passing ability comes along once every 10 years or so. Guys with Quinn's ability come along every year.

How do you figure?

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

How do you figure?

you know guys like leinart,cutler, alex smith, carson palmer,

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

How do you figure?

I'm not going off of the combine stuff. Russell didn't even throw at the combine. I'm just going off of when I saw him play in games. He was making John Elway/Jeff George kind of throws. Just zipping it in small windows. Simply put no one in this draft has that kind of passing ability. Now that does not mean he is going to be a great pro qb. I'm just saying based on his college games he looked like a can't miss.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I'm not going off of the combine stuff. Russell didn't even throw at the combine. I'm just going off of when I saw him play in games. He was making John Elway/Jeff George kind of throws. Just zipping it in small windows. Simply put no one in this draft has that kind of passing ability. Now that does not mean he is going to be a great pro qb. I'm just saying based on his college games he looked like a can't miss.

I'm wary of anyone who makes a name for himself with pinpoint accuracy at the college level, especially if he has a rep for making poor decisions. That doesn't fly in the NFL.

The John Elway comparison sounds pretty accurate...but historic greatness is not predictable before the draft. Elway did a lot of stuff at the college level that Russell doesn't do very well.

I want to hesitate from labeling Russell a bust candidate, but he's just not a good NFL prospect. No QB in recent memory could have used his senior year of college more than Russell. The most ideal situation for him would be 3+ years of riding the bench so that he could get pretty far into his development before having to be put under the microscope. This could allow him enough time to develop into an NFL worthy starter before he gets labeled a bust.

If he goes first overall, he's not going to have that luxury. No matter which team he ends up on, he's going to develop a rep for poor decision making and being INT prone, and probably get the bust label sometime before 2009.

No matter what, he's never going to live up to expectations. He just isn't a good decision maker, period. Most underclass QB's aren't. If he can get into a favorable situation where he doesn't have to play right away, he might earn the perception of a starting quality QB (even though he's really the exact same player--just farther along in his development). If he gets thrown to the Wolves immediately, he's going to have a very rough first three years, and in today's league, generally its three strikes and you're out.

Unfortuante but true.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm wary of anyone who makes a name for himself with pinpoint accuracy at the college level, especially if he has a rep for making poor decisions. That doesn't fly in the NFL.

The John Elway comparison sounds pretty accurate...but historic greatness is not predictable before the draft. Elway did a lot of stuff at the college level that Russell doesn't do very well.

I want to hesitate from labeling Russell a bust candidate, but he's just not a good NFL prospect. No QB in recent memory could have used his senior year of college more than Russell. The most ideal situation for him would be 3+ years of riding the bench so that he could get pretty far into his development before having to be put under the microscope. This could allow him enough time to develop into an NFL worthy starter before he gets labeled a bust.

If he goes first overall, he's not going to have that luxury. No matter which team he ends up on, he's going to develop a rep for poor decision making and being INT prone, and probably get the bust label sometime before 2009.

No matter what, he's never going to live up to expectations. He just isn't a good decision maker, period. Most underclass QB's aren't. If he can get into a favorable situation where he doesn't have to play right away, he might earn the perception of a starting quality QB (even though he's really the exact same player--just farther along in his development). If he gets thrown to the Wolves immediately, he's going to have a very rough first three years, and in today's league, generally its three strikes and you're out.

Unfortuante but true.

Also how in the world can you say he is not a good decision maker????? Perhaps earlier in his career this was the case, when he was young and inexperienced, but certainly not now. Since you are so into stats just look at his. 28tds and 8ints and 67% completion rate. Sorry but those are great stats. 8 ints in 342 attempts is really taking care of the football. Especially in the SEC where the talent level is the highest in the country. And if you looked at his last game he totally outplayed Brady Quinn and for that matter so did Troy Smith in the 06 game. Brady Quinn looked terrible against LSU. He was all over the place with the ball. Now would a smart scout grade Quinn on this performaces in bowl games? Hell no. The guy really proved himself, especially his last two years. Quinn is a great college qb. But Russell also got better every single year. All of his %'s went up in his three years. He had no regression in his three years at LSU. So I'm not sure where your getting your info from about Russell but it's completly 100% wrong.

[dmek25]

i think skinsfan69 has it back wards. every year someone wows all the NFL guys with superior arm strength. but the play making and decision making of someone like Quinn is seen every 5-10 years. i think Quinn is definitely the better pro prospect

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dmek25

i think skinsfan69 has it back wards. every year someone wows all the NFL guys with superior arm strength. but the play making and decision making of someone like Quinn is seen every 5-10 years. i think Quinn is definitely the better pro prospect

I agree. My critics might say that I've been on the "Brady Quinn man train" for awhile now.

I don't agree with the notion that necessarily one QB like Quinn comes around every 5-10 years. I mean, Leinart last year is probably a better pro prospect, Rivers and Roethlisberger in 2004, Carson Palmer 4 years ago, maybe even Pennington in 2000. All these guys will probably have better pro careers than Quinn, but this is the type of class Brady Quinn is right on the cusp of.

I completely and utterly agree that a guy like Russell comes along every year and steals the hearts of all the scouts with non NFL football related skills. It's funny really, and it just goes to show how completely off some scouts can be in their analysis...and how unwilling to learn from their mistakes they are. There is NO EXCUSE to not have QB grading down to a near exact science by now (after all these years of trial and error), but I believe that most scouts are ignorant fools.

Quinn just has done in college exactly what it takes to be successful at the next level: a long and successful college career.

Russell would have been quite a pro prospect if he stayed in school another year, but the best he can hope for now is to be the next Rex Grossman, and get on a team that has a SB caliber defense and play adequately enough to win a championship.

With the massive success of guys like Pennington and Leinart, there's really no excuse to fall into the arm strength trap anymore. This goes double when people bad mouth a guy like Quinn, who has more than adequate arm strength.

I've seen numerous comparisions between Russell's 60 yd "butt throw", and Kyle Boller's 50 yard throw from one knee. It's beyond baffling that the people making these comparision actually haven't bothered to stop and look at how Kyle Boller actually turned out.

This leaves me with one conclusion: NFL scouts are completely and utterly clueless when it comes to projecting college players, especially QBs.

[GTripp0012]

Masterfully written article by John Clayton illustrating my point:

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Clayton: Evaluating QBs just got tougher

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Masterfully written article by John Clayton illustrating my point:

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Clayton: Evaluating QBs just got tougher

u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thing

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thing

At some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

At some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.

god man i respect the hell out of you but i just cant put quinn over russell man i just cant inhave weighed every possible option and i just cant

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

god man i respect the hell out of you but i just cant put quinn over russell man i just cant inhave weighed every possible option and i just cant

That's cool.

I think you are a smarter talent evaluator than Todd McShay anyway.

Everybody is entited to their opinion, but at some point, a lot of the scouts that ignore college stats for more flashy things like arm are going to get their roles reduced within their respective organizations and have their duties handed over to the better, more objective scouts.

NFL teams will get this QB scouting thing down to a science soon. IMO, it's just a tragedy that they haven't yet. You just have to wonder how many times Scouts can screw up and make excuses before the teams go hire someone else.

The Redskins actually have a really good college scouting department. It's too bad we trade all of our draft picks because I think the guys in our scouting department give us an inherent drafting advantage over most other teams. We seem to choose not to exercise this advantage.

Eventually teams will catch up to Philadelphia and NE in drafting the right guys because, after all, its really not rocket science. You pick the most talented guy with a good deal of experience at a need position, and hope that he doesn't unexpectedly bust. Avoiding underclassmen is a good way to cut down on busts.

And that right there is the source of the whole scouting issue. The fact that these guys think that they are one of only a select few in the world that can do their job. Learning how to be a good scout takes little experience as long as you are observant and willing to learn from past errors. Most guys in the league today simply aren't.

[GTripp0012]

Also, if you are interested in seeing how some of the top QBs in this draft project to the NFL, this article is for you:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and 2005

Money Quote:

Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.

Are there any bad players on that list? The worst according to my numbers is Eli Manning, and he’s been decent (maybe not up to expectations, but decent). I would be happy to spend a top ten pick on most of those players.

One more for the road:

I am hardly pleased to call out Russell as a likely bust, and given the right situation and good coaching I am sure he could defy the odds and become a good pro. However, players like Russell rarely do.

Here’s that under 30 starts list again: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.

Sorry, Raiders fans.

[GMScud]

Tripp, that is so funny that you brought up the Kyle Boller analogy with Jamarcus. I was about to bring that up, but I figured I'd go check some of your posts just in case. Sure enough, there it was. LOL!! When I heard Todd McShay bring up the whole 60 yd "Butt Throw" by Russell, I laughed my ass off (forgive the pun). Who friggin cares if he can throw it behind his back with his eyes closed, off the rafters, into the endzone??? How on earth does meaningless crap like that translate to the football field??

The comparison of Leinart to Quinn is very valid:
Leinart: played 4 years (3 of which he started) in a pro-style offense with a NFL caliber talent all around him and a pro-style coach. His leadership and smarts coupled with all that experience = success.
Quinn: also played 4 seasons, starting 3, and played in a pro-style offense with an NFL coach, and also played in some huge games.

I also like Quinn over Russell. He's got size and athleticism, plus Weis absolutely raves about him. Sure he's kind of obligated too, but Weis developed a guy named Tom Brady. Last I checked he's done okay. Hearing Weis wholeheartedly compare Brady with Quinn has got to make some FO's drool.

But I don't think we can say Russell has less of a chance of success. Vince Young only played 3 seasons. Cutler only played 3 seasons. They both did well and look to be developing nicely. I guess it's the decision making that may take a little longer to come around with QBs that leave school early. Like you said, at some point you just have to hope you pick the right guy.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Tripp, that is so funny that you brought up the Kyle Boller analogy with Jamarcus. I was about to bring that up, but I figured I'd go check some of your posts just in case. Sure enough, there it was. LOL!! When I heard Todd McShay bring up the whole 60 yd "Butt Throw" by Russell, I laughed my ass off (forgive the pun). Who friggin cares if he can throw it behind his back with his eyes closed, off the rafters, into the endzone??? How on earth does meaningless crap like that translate to the football field??

The comparison of Leinart to Quinn is very valid:
Leinart: played 4 years (3 of which he started) in a pro-style offense with a NFL caliber talent all around him and a pro-style coach. His leadership and smarts coupled with all that experience = success.
Quinn: also played 4 seasons, starting 3, and played in a pro-style offense with an NFL coach, and also played in some huge games.

I also like Quinn over Russell. He's got size and athleticism, plus Weis absolutely raves about him. Sure he's kind of obligated too, but Weis developed a guy named Tom Brady. Last I checked he's done okay. Hearing Weis wholeheartedly compare Brady with Quinn has got to make some FO's drool.

But I don't think we can say Russell has less of a chance of success. Vince Young only played 3 seasons. Cutler only played 3 seasons. They both did well and look to be developing nicely. I guess it's the decision making that may take a little longer to come around with QBs that leave school early. Like you said, at some point you just have to hope you pick the right guy.

Cutler started 45 games though (4 seasons). Young is a differerent case. He started 3 more games than Russell, which is a sizable difference. But Young also has an option with his legs that Russell simply doesn't have. VY will be a slightly above league average passer in his prime, but will be so much more valuable than that as a player because of his running skills.

As far as Russell's running skills are, I mean, Brady Quinn is the better runner of the two.

I say that the difference between the two guys will be epicly displayed by year 2 of their NFL careers. Russell is never going to get a chance to hit his prime unless he ends up in a situation like Grossman did. You think if Grossman was on the Raiders, he would have held his starting position? Russell simply will get the bust label before he has an adequate chance to learn the game. And it sucks for him. But he should have stayed in school. He needed the experience.

Let me be clear on one thing. Even if Russell is handeled properly in a good situation, the gap between him and Quinn will never be closed as some mediots think it will. The mythical upside surrounding Russell is not a reality. He's just not the prospect Quinn is. Doesn't mean he can't defy the odds to solidify himself as an NFL level passer in a good situation. It just means that Quinn will be better.

Remember, Grossman went 23rd to Chicago in 2003. The expectations surrounding him are not even comparible to the hype around Russell. Unfortuantely for JaMarcus, there's a double standard here. Because he's going to be a top 3 pick, as soon as it becomes clear that he's going to dissapoint, they will look for his replacement (as opposed to letting him grow into the borderline starter he can be in his prime). Grossman survived in part because no one expected anything from him.