Redskins No. 1 pick in 2010 NFL Draft

[GridIron26]

^^

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Jason Campbell, 2009, to date:
rating 89.0, 12th in the league (so 20 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

completion percentage 68.9%, 6th in league (so 26 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards 453, 15th in the league (so 17 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards per attempt 7.4, 14th in the league (so 18 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

Don't even bother, some folks have their minds made up no matter what he does.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Jason Campbell, 2009, to date:
rating 89.0, 12th in the league (so 20 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

completion percentage 68.9%, 6th in league (so 26 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards 453, 15th in the league (so 17 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards per attempt 7.4, 14th in the league (so 18 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

Thats the thing about JC, he puts up decent numbers in most categories except points so in the end he struggles to win. I think JC is the text book case of the percentages not telling the whole story, JC just isnt a winner.

[Redskin Warrior]

Originally Posted by irish

Thats the thing about JC, he puts up decent numbers in most categories except points so in the end he struggles to win. I think JC is the text book case of the percentages not telling the whole story, JC just isnt a winner.

I think it has been Zorn that has not put JC in a position to takeover to score in the redzone. Then again Thomas & Sellers drops weren't his fault therefore the team should have 14 more points and he should have 2 more TD's.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by irish

Thats the thing about JC, he puts up decent numbers in most categories except points so in the end he struggles to win. I think JC is the text book case of the percentages not telling the whole story, JC just isnt a winner.

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with). Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

[irish]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with). Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

Very good post. I also point out Rothlisberger, his stats arent great but in the end he makes plays and wins games. Last year was the classic example, Pgh had no running game, not much of an O line but somehow BR found a way to keep winning games all the way to the last game in Feb. He wins those games through pocket presence and anticipation which are two things that JC just doesnt have.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will. Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with).

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

I think you're making the best well thought out Campbell argument to date, but I actually think the subjective elements of Campbell actually strengthen his case.

And I've always said: you can make an argument that Campbell holds the ball too long. But, I believe there are extenuating circumstances that have contributed to a rising sack rate. I also maintain that if I am correct about Campbell, his sack rate will drop significantly in the future (and currently, it's at a career low 4.7% in a SSS).

As for the statistical argument, I would suggest that Quarterback play more than any other position can be measured inclusively by the statistics. Your point that there are critical elements of quarterbacking (as opposed to other positions) that can not be measured statistically is on the surface, valid. But I think it's a somewhat misleading point. Not wrong, but I question the assertion that quarterback play, specifically, has intangible aspects that other positions do not have. That small part seems false. I would suggest that the argument of route anticipation exists in a more direct sense for both Corners and Receivers.

The question is: how do you explain the statistical studies that suggest that in the history of the statistical record, no quarterback has a skill known as "red zone ability". That, of course, is to say that: the best red zone passers in history were also the best passers in the rest of the field as well.

Again, I have nothing that suggests your points about Campbell's anticipatory ability are necessarily wrong. Not one shred of evidence. But if, over the season, Campbell's red zone numbers normalize to the rest of his numbers, and the offense scores more points as a product, I would at that point suggest that yes, he has answered all the questions.

Until then, I thank you for contributing yet another element to my game reviews that I can analyze, because, though completely subjective, finding a few instances per game where Campbell's incompletions are attributable to throwing the ball later than the play design suggests should be pretty easy.

And I'll bet a whole lot of money we will find evidence that points in both directions.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with). Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

This is one of the best posts I've read on here in a while. I've also been a staunch supporter of JC, but like you, that support is starting to waver a bit. I get what you mean about anticipation, and I think the Garrad comparison may be a good one. I need to see more games on down the stretch this year with steady improvement, or I'm done with him. And the Redskins will be too.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by irish

Thats the thing about JC, he puts up decent numbers in most categories except points so in the end he struggles to win. I think JC is the text book case of the percentages not telling the whole story, JC just isnt a winner.

In other words: Campbell is to winning as irish is to logic?

[irish]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

In other words: Campbell is to winning as irish is to logic?

I am mostly logical. JC is mostly an ineffective QB no matter what the completion % and interception rates say.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Jason Campbell, 2009, to date:
rating 89.0, 12th in the league (so 20 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

completion percentage 68.9%, 6th in league (so 26 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards 453, 15th in the league (so 17 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards per attempt 7.4, 14th in the league (so 18 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

How about the TD stat were does he rank there.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Jason Campbell, 2009, to date:
rating 89.0, 12th in the league (so 20 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

completion percentage 68.9%, 6th in league (so 26 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards 453, 15th in the league (so 17 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

yards per attempt 7.4, 14th in the league (so 18 starting qb's are NOT better than him)

im am real close to almost ignoring all together this mythical qb rating. JC had a 60-70 qb rating in the giants game for 58 mins, then with the giants up 2 scores with 2 mins to go, JC dinks and dunks his way to a 90 qb rating going 6-6 or 6-7 and a td. im sorry JC did not play well against the giants but i guess if his qb rating at the end of the game is 90, he did?

his yards are decent.

completion percentage - lots of short routes, short completions = higher completion rate. much like shuisham's completion rate 2 years ago, it was only b/c he attempted 3 fg over 50 yds compared to other kickers who would try close to 10

yards per attempt - i like, this is an improvement, and cuts against the short routes completion argument. i really hope this trend continues.

I'm a JC supporter (not believer) but you cant ignore the other stats like 1 td 1 int (or JC's overall td/int career count vs games started) or our 1-1 record (or JCs career W-L record which isnt entirely on the qb). please consider the td came late against the giants in a 2 possession game and the W came from the rams at 9-7.

the stats go both ways for JC, they are there for the supporters and haters.

byron leftwich in that tampa bay offense (w/out bryant) has much better stats than JC right now and he was avail to any team in the offseason.

i hate being sucked into this JC debate but it annoys me when JC has 1 good/decent game you all come out and say "where the haters at now?". but he has a bad game or season and you say "hes learning the system" or "oline sucked" or "its 1 game" when the haters come out.

sorry for yet another JC post . . .man sometimes you cant resist talking about it ad nauseum.

go skins!!

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

byron leftwich in that tampa bay offense (w/out bryant) has much better stats than JC right now and he was avail to any team in the offseason.

Leftwich is another good example. The guy has some superior physical tools, namely his arm strength, but he is not a very good quarterback. Everything he does he does slowly, from his drop to his release. That is why he has gotten hurt so much in his career. He is a statue in the pocket and holds the ball too long. Tampa has a good offensive line (though they have now lost Faine for a few weeks) and they have given him time in the pocket. He has also been forced to throw a lot because their defense is horrible. As a result he has put up good statistical numbers, but that does not make him a good quarterback. He is the same player he has always been, which is a guy with superior arm strength, but bad mechanics and an unrefined sense of timing and anticipation. Between the two, Campbell is actually the superior player in my estimation. But you can't get any of that from statistics.

I also like your distinction between JC supporter and JC believer. Good one.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

im am real close to almost ignoring all together this mythical qb rating. JC had a 60-70 qb rating in the giants game for 58 mins, then with the giants up 2 scores with 2 mins to go, JC dinks and dunks his way to a 90 qb rating going 6-6 or 6-7 and a td. im sorry JC did not play well against the giants but i guess if his qb rating at the end of the game is 90, he did?

his yards are decent.

completion percentage - lots of short routes, short completions = higher completion rate. much like shuisham's completion rate 2 years ago, it was only b/c he attempted 3 fg over 50 yds compared to other kickers who would try close to 10

yards per attempt - i like, this is an improvement, and cuts against the short routes completion argument. i really hope this trend continues.

I'm a JC supporter (not believer) but you cant ignore the other stats like 1 td 1 int (or JC's overall td/int career count vs games started) or our 1-1 record (or JCs career W-L record which isnt entirely on the qb). please consider the td came late against the giants in a 2 possession game and the W came from the rams at 9-7.

the stats go both ways for JC, they are there for the supporters and haters.

byron leftwich in that tampa bay offense (w/out bryant) has much better stats than JC right now and he was avail to any team in the offseason.

i hate being sucked into this JC debate but it annoys me when JC has 1 good/decent game you all come out and say "where the haters at now?". but he has a bad game or season and you say "hes learning the system" or "oline sucked" or "its 1 game" when the haters come out.

sorry for yet another JC post . . .man sometimes you cant resist talking about it ad nauseum.

go skins!!

Someone claimed that "anyone" would be better than JC. I was responding to the argument with a counter-claim, backed by some numbers. My claim was no more and no less than that.

[joethiesmanfan]

South Carolina, Rock Hill boys: Devonte Holloman starting-safety freshman, Stephan Gilmore starting-CB freshman, Tori Gurly starting-WR freshman, plus more. Spurrier messed up my Redskins and messed up my Gamecocks. He better not mess up my hometown heroes.