Make your Case for non-HOFer

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).

I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day.

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day.

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.

And Monk was the all time leading receiver upon his retirement.

Yes, the HOF is a look at your body of work, not just a portion of it.

[Meks]

I like the bus ... but he'll wait a while and nit certain he makes it... in the voters wacky view

[MTK]

Looking at the considerable backlog of well qualified players, I find it hard to say the Hall is just for the very good.

[Leader In Sports]

Wait, you are really saying that John Stallworth doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Marcus Allen does not belong in the Hall of Fame?


Shame on you.

:smashfrea

Not only does it take the stats, but you have to look at the body of work. If you don't comprehend that, then it is hard to discuss the topic with you.

So, a defensive player who played before they kept the stat for sacks, shouldn't ever be allowed in Canton because he doesn't have the numbers?

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

Wait, you are really saying that John Stallworth doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Marcus Allen does not belong in the Hall of Fame?


Shame on you.

:smashfrea

Not only does it take the stats, but you have to look at the body of work. If you don't comprehend that, then it is hard to discuss the topic with you.

So, a defensive player who played before they kept the stat for sacks, shouldn't ever be allowed in Canton because he doesn't have the numbers?

The stats are the body of work for those two positions. Defensive end is different. For example, Howie Long does not have very good sack statistics. I never saw him play, but I've asked people who have and they told me that he completely took over games. I can accept that as a D-Lineman can impact the game without recording any statistics.
Both a WR and a D-Lineman can be double teamed and record no statistics. But a D-linemen can still make an impact through pushing the pocket in the direction he desires. A WR can either get open to make the catch, or not.

Statistics pretty much define the WR and the RB position. As their (significant, game changing) impact is limited to the ways in which they can advance the ball.

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

The stats are the body of work for those two positions. Defensive end is different. For example, Howie Long does not have very good sack statistics. I never saw him play, but I've asked people who have and they told me that he completely took over games. I can accept that as a D-Lineman can impact the game without recording any statistics.
Both a WR and a D-Lineman can be double teamed and record no statistics. But a D-linemen can still make an impact through pushing the pocket in the direction he desires. A WR can either get open to make the catch, or not.

Statistics pretty much define the WR and the RB position. As their (significant, game changing) impact is limited to the ways in which they can advance the ball.

You cannot compare stats of a receiver from the 70's to the modern era guys. The game has completely evolved. You have to look at the player and how they effected the game and the opposition.

Based on your logic, Paul Krause should have been a first ballot HOFer since he still has the most ever interceptions Hall of Famers » PAUL KRAUSE

It took Paul 20 years to be inducted in Canton.

If you used your logic, Sam Huff would still be waiting to be inducted since he only went to 5 pro bowls.

[skinster]

Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by skinster

Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.

Your math breaks down because HoFer's tend to have longer careers. The average career number that you are using is way off for ALL players. Therefore there would be far fewer than 72 current players inducted.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Your math breaks down because HoFer's tend to have longer careers. The average career number that you are using is way off for ALL players. Therefore there would be far fewer than 72 current players inducted.

The length of the average NFL players career is irrelevant as the HOF only inducts players with HOF careers.
I'm not saying that there are 72 players who are incredible right now, simply that there are 72 players playing right now whose career will end up in the HOF. Some might be rookies, some might be in their 14th year, but the math is pretty undeniable that ALOT of today's players will make the HOF.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by skinster

The length of the average NFL players career is irrelevant as the HOF only inducts players with HOF careers.
I'm not saying that there are 72 players who are incredible right now, simply that there are 72 players playing right now whose career will end up in the HOF. Some might be rookies, some might be in their 14th year, but the math is pretty undeniable that ALOT of today's players will make the HOF.

The length of career of all current players is definitely relevant. If, as just a thought experiment, we consider that every current player will have a career of 4 years or less (except for those who already have surpassed that mark), then the number of players enshrined plummets precipitously.

Your mathematical argument is somewhat circular - it presumes that current players will have longer careers than we have a right to expect them to. You need to reduce your estimate by the percentage of current players who won't have long enough careers.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

The length of career of all current players is definitely relevant. If, as just a thought experiment, we consider that every current player will have a career of 4 years or less (except for those who already have surpassed that mark), then the number of players enshrined plummets precipitously.

Your mathematical argument is somewhat circular - it presumes that current players will have longer careers than we have a right to expect them to. You need to reduce your estimate by the percentage of current players who won't have long enough careers.

Lol your clearly confused, about what, I'm not entirely sure, so I'm going to try to explain it out.

How long the average player's career length is irrelevant. Think about it; lets say every NON-HOFer had a career length of 1 year, and the average length of a HOFer was 10 years. Lets say that there were 5 HOF inductees per year. How many HOF players (rookie, through 10 year vet) would there be in the NFL right now? 50.

Why 50? Its because every year there are 5 HOF inductees. Fastforward 10 years, we do this 10 times (once for each year), and 50 players get inducted.

Yes I know players don't get inducted immediately when they retire, but I oversimplified for the sake of this example...when they get inducted is irrelivant as long as they EVENTUALLY get inducted.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinster

Sorry for the tripple post; but I'd like someone to respond to why my assertion that there will be roughly 72 NFL players playing today that will one day make the HOF. I did the math, and there was an average of 6 HOF inductees over the last 5 years, and everyone drafted in the 1980s or after had an average career of 14 seasons. When we do the math that means that there should be 84 HOF players taken today; but for conservancy's sake I shortened the average length of a HOF player to 12 to make it at roughly 72 HOF players playing today (rookies through 18 year vets).

Don't tell me that "there is a backlog preventing these players from getting in." Because one day the current players will be the backlog preventing future players from getting in.

Are you really telling me you think that there are 72 players playing today whose end of their careers will warrant the tag, "greatness?" I don't.

The logic behind your math seems to be a little fuzzy at best, but I'll play along, 72/1696 players in the league right now = 4%. You really don't think 4% of the league consists of great players?

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

The logic behind your math seems to be a little fuzzy at best, but I'll play along, 72/1696 players in the league right now = 4%. You really don't think 4% of the league consists of great players?

Great is a relative term. Of course the best 4% of any profession is great at what they do. When I say greatness; I mean the type of greatness that deserves to have you to forever be enshrined as one of the best to EVER play the game. I think that's what the HOF should be for, and no I don't think that the top 4% warrants immortality in the hall.

[MTK]

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree then. If 4% is too high of a figure for you then we're not even in the same ballpark. And again, only 267 players in the Hall out of god only knows how many guys that have come through the league??