Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

There's a reason some organizations draft better than others. It's because you're not throwing names into a hat and you have an x percent chance that it wil turn out to be a good player.

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Originally Posted by biffle

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of your own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:

Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by biffle

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Missing on Griffin isn't any different than missing on Reilly Reiff, et al. Your chance of salvaging your 2012 draft in the face of an misevaluation at the top of the first round is much greater if you don't make the trade, but it's kind of silly IMO to think of the draft as a proposition where you try to do the least harm.

You get to draft the most valuable assets in the NFL and sign them for 20%-30% of their market value. With that advantage, I wouldn't think of the trade up possibility for Griffin as a huge risk. Think of it as cost-benefit instead. You're not really risking anything of note.

[GTripp0012]

So this ended up being a pretty good question. Not an obvious answer, despite the run on Griffin responses at the start of the thread.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Wow. Just wow.

Yep. I shock people.

[SirClintonPortis]

The day that every football fan realizes that draft picks are just another currency like the dollar or euro will be a decent day for me, barring tragic events. And of course, using them wisely also matters.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

The day that every football fan realizes that draft picks are just another currency like the dollar or euro will be a decent day for me, barring tragic events. And of course, using them wisely also matters.

Vinny (and Joe Gibbs) treated it like it was monopoly money. :frusty:

[mlmdub130]

why would manning even want to come here? i don't see him coming here. i could see him ending up on some team that no one woul even imagine like the raiders.

and as for rg3 if he falls to 6 i'd love to see us take him, otherwise fall back and stock up. i think the worst thing shanny can do is make a move that gives up draft picks. if this franchise has changed for real there needs to be patience. i dont think that shanny is sold on rg3, and if he isn't 100% he can't afford to set this team back anymore. i say take a qb in the 2nd and another one later on. i know i'm in the minority but i am totally fine with having another building year. this team has been run into the ground the past decade with draft picks treated like garbage. this past year was a great draft and i would love to see another just llike it. let's be realistic and build this team the right way, you never know what can on the feild during game time. as much as i hate it when people brag about it we did beat the giants this year and the packers last year. it doesn;t mean we were a very good team but it does mean we can wina few tough games while we build the team for the future. httr!

[diehardskin2982]

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

When you calculate all those other players (that would be used to get RGIII) along with Peyton, it's a no brainer for me. Now if our team were a bit more solid, I would have no issues with giving up the picks if I thought he was that guy.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

It's a good question, but it's probably early to ask it because the draft is a considerable distance away, and Manning's availability for the Redskins is nothing more than a rumor at this point.

If Manning is released by the Colts on March 7 and signs with the Colts for two years/$25 million (backloaded - $18 mil in year two) the next day, then he was never planning on leaving Indy to begin with. Then we're targeting someone else who (probably) doesn't adequately solve the need to draft a quarterback.

[GTripp0012]

I would submit that the risky play here isn't RG3, it's Manning. Once you get past the fact that the reported asking price for the no. 2 pick is obscene and fictitious, and that only time elapsing towards the draft plus the ability of the Vikings to join the trade talks is going to make the Rams join reality, the draft becomes a well-established efficient market.

You're not losing value in a trade up for RG3. You're not gaining value in a trade up for RG3 (unless of course you are stealing it from the Rams). You're franchise is worth the same it was before and after an RG3 trade, if it's a fair deal. So trading up for Griffin isn't more or less optimal than staying put and keeping the picks.

Manning though, is inherently a gamble. There's a cap cost, a financial burden, and an opportunity cost to signing Peyton Manning on your team. The only way you can win that gamble and avoid 2012 as a lost year is to have Peyton healthy for a majority of the season, and playing at a high level. Otherwise, signing Manning burns you in the end.

Still, if you can get him, and you have the testicular fortitude to bet your job on it, Mike Shanahan has to get Manning, right? I mean, how could he pass up that chance to win big, even with his job on the line if it doesn't work? If Manning is willing to come here, that's a once a decade acquisition staring you in the face.

[diehardskin2982]

Right now I am leaning towards Manning because even if he is a lesser athelete than he was in the past he still has the smarts and knows how to play the NFL game. I think he will be able to compensate for his arm strength like Chad Pennington did as a QB. We can use our picks to build the team and draft a quality QB with 2013's number 1.

[CultBrennan59]

What-if Peyton Manning played for the Cardinals, Redskins, Jets and Dolphins from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com