What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

For some reason I still feel we will get Luck or RGIII.

I really see Luck being a Redskin come april.. I think we give up what we need to get to number 1

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

I really see Luck being a Redskin come april.. I think we give up what we need to get to number 1

If the Rams end up at #1 I think that's a virtual lock and it will be expensive. However, if the Colts end up at #1 we're going to have to make a move for RGIII cause the Colts won't budge.

[30gut]

Imo the draft is about probability as much as it is about evaluation.
Anytime you pass/give away a pick or multiple picks to make 1 pick you're reducing the opportunities to improve your team or a acquire a great player.
In short 4 chances are better then 1 chance.

Unless of course Luck will be the last great QB prospect ever.
Case in point trading up: the Jets traded up to get Sanchez but don't you think they would have been better off drafting Freeman and keeping the picks they traded?

It doesn't make sense to trade picks for Luck or anyother draft pick unless you believe in that player is all you need to win the Super Bowl.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Case in point trading up: the Jets traded up to get Sanchez but don't you think they would have been better off drafting Freeman and keeping the picks they traded?

That would be an understatement at this point. Freeman won't turn 24 for a month and he's already more accomplished than Sanchez as a pro passer.

Same thing with Eli Manning/Philip Rivers.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

That would be an understatement at this point. Freeman won't turn 24 for a month and he's already more accomplished than Sanchez as a pro passer.

Same thing with Eli Manning/Philip Rivers.

Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.

I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
Trent Green
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
Trent Green
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman

How dare you leave out the Danny Wuerffel and Tim Hasselbeck eras!

Seriously though, this is a great list demonstrating that regardless of how we acquired them, we've settled for two decades at that position. We are still smarting from the Heath Shuler draft and have seemingly been gun shy to make a move again at an elite prospect. The time has come. Make the move for Luck or RGIII.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
Trent Green
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman

What could have been if we kept Trent...

[30gut]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

What could have been if we kept Trent...

Yup, and Brad Johnson won a superbowl.
From the list that has nothing to do with my point:
Campbell has been better then McNabb who was better then Rex.

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Huh?
What do the QBs on that list have to do with trading multiple first round draft picks in exchange for 1 first round pick (Luck/Griffin)?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.

One thing you're going to have to put into your analysis is that the expected return of the first QB taken in any draft is much higher than of any other quarterback in the same draft. So whether that's Luck or not Luck, you're clearly better off taking the consensus best quarterback than waiting.

Obviously in some years, that will get you Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russell, but speaking in the most general terms that I can, the team with the most losses and the biggest need at quarterback is typically not going to leave the best QB on the board for later. The equation shifts if you have reason to believe the team with the top pick cannot rationally evaluate talent: then you might have reason to suspect they'll leave the best player on the board.

I am not saying that you should throw your draft board in the trash after Luck gets taken, but that there is incredible value to having that high pick that you aren't accounting for in that analysis, because it takes the limitation of having to pick through players with obvious flaws versus other positions where there is clearly more value out of the equation.

It's not inefficient to trade up in the NFL draft. If you're like the Redskins and you give away many of your picks every year, it continues an inefficient cycle, but when you isolate a single trade between two teams, the team going up in the draft is generally not giving up value. The market will adjust well to the value of draft picks.

It is inefficient, however, to not fully understand the needs and state of your own roster.

[celts32]

I have a hard time buying Flynn's potential. He was a 7th round draft pick for a reason. I don't see how a couple years on green bays bench and one good performance filling in has catipulted him into being a great prospect. Everyone wants to throw Brady in your face when talking about late round QB's like Flynn, but Brady is the exception not the rule.

I would not mind bringing Flynn to camp next year but I sure as heck don't want to give him a big contract and make him the starter...

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by celts32

I have a hard time buying Flynn's potential. He was a 7th round draft pick for a reason. I don't see how a couple years on green bays bench and one good performance filling in has catipulted him into being a great prospect. Everyone wants to throw Brady in your face when talking about late round QB's like Flynn, but Brady is the exception not the rule.

I would not mind bringing Flynn to camp next year but I sure as heck don't want to give him a big contract and make him the starter...

2nd round pick Brian Brohm was expunged from the Packers instead of Flynn precisely because Flynn performed better than Brohm, draft pick status be damned.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

2nd round pick Brian Brohm was expunged from the Packers instead of Flynn precisely because Flynn performed better than Brohm, draft pick status be damned.

I could be wrong, but Flynn looks a lot like Kolb. Looked good in limited action, but may not be that great in the long run.

[celts32]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

2nd round pick Brian Brohm was expunged from the Packers instead of Flynn precisely because Flynn performed better than Brohm, draft pick status be damned.

All that tells me is that Brohm was a bust. Not sure being better then brohm makes him a franchise QB.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by celts32

I have a hard time buying Flynn's potential. He was a 7th round draft pick for a reason. I don't see how a couple years on green bays bench and one good performance filling in has catipulted him into being a great prospect. Everyone wants to throw Brady in your face when talking about late round QB's like Flynn, but Brady is the exception not the rule.

I would not mind bringing Flynn to camp next year but I sure as heck don't want to give him a big contract and make him the starter...

Well, if you think that Flynn is just going to show up in Redskins training camp next year because he thinks the Redskins are "way cool" and he doesn't care if they even give him a contract, then you also believe in the Tooth Fairy.