What is Matt Flynn Worth to the Redskins

[Dirtbag59]

Per Football Outsiders:
Flynn is 26 years old and has four years of apprenticeship in one of the best offenses in the league. His ceiling is Hall of Famer; his realistic floor is something at least close to a Pro Bowler. That's got to be worth more than an unproven rookie, doesn't it?

Maybe Flynn will never win a Super Bowl like those men did. So let's not look at the best quarterbacks who have played this well; let's look instead at the worst quarterbacks to ever hit 290 DYAR in a game. In alphabetical order, that leaves us with Marc Bulger, Randall Cunningham, Green and Scott Mitchell. The first three names on that list were Pro Bowlers, and the fourth was essentially a league-average starter for a half-decade in the mid-90s.

Going a little further down the list, down to the 260-DYAR level, gives us more of the same: Pro Bowl quarterback after Pro Bowl quarterback, from Rodgers to Matt Hasselbeck to Carson Palmer to Rich Gannon to Steve Young to Drew Bledsoe to Bobby Hebert to Troy Aikman to Neil O'Donnell to Daunte Culpepper to Jeff Garcia. Obviously, some of those names are a lot better than others, but with the exception of Mitchell, every quarterback who has ever played even one game anywhere near Flynn's level played in Hawaii at least once in his career.

[GTripp0012]

Disagree with FO that his floor is pro bowler. His floor is career backup with misguided starting stint.

The problem wasn't the stats analysis, it was the way the question was asked: "what was the worst case outcome of a player who exceeded 290 DYAR in a single performance?" But the real question that wasn't asked there was "what parameters are consistent in any 290 DYAR performance (specifically, Scott Mitchell's)." It just so happens that Aaron Rodgers, playing in the Packers offensive system, with the Packers offensive talent, is having one of the greatest quarterback seasons of all time. Is Aaron Rodgers one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play pro football? Maybe. But it's more likely that he's in the prime of his career right now because of the fertility of the offense around him.

Great stats -- ones that I use regularly -- poor analysis of the performance in a limited sample.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Disagree with FO that his floor is pro bowler. His floor is career backup with misguided starting stint.

The problem wasn't the stats analysis, it was the way the question was asked: "what was the worst case outcome of a player who exceeded 290 DYAR in a single performance?" But the real question that wasn't asked there was "what parameters are consistent in any 290 DYAR performance (specifically, Scott Mitchell's)." It just so happens that Aaron Rodgers, playing in the Packers offensive system, with the Packers offensive talent, is having one of the greatest quarterback seasons of all time. Is Aaron Rodgers one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play pro football? Maybe. But it's more likely that he's in the prime of his career right now because of the fertility of the offense around him.

Great stats -- ones that I use regularly -- poor analysis of the performance in a limited sample.

It all depends on how the FO sees him. If you think he's Matt Schuab you go for him . Even in spite of RGIII. Personally I love RGIII, he's a great QB prospect. However with all the injuries this year I can't take the idea of finally getting a QB only to have to worry about how often he'll be injured. Then again Vick has been surprisingly durable given his style of play.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

It all depends on how the FO sees him. If you think he's Matt Schuab you go for him . Even in spite of RGIII. Personally I love RGIII, he's a great QB prospect. However with all the injuries this year I can't take the idea of finally getting a QB only to have to worry about how often he'll be injured. Then again Vick has been surprisingly durable given his style of play.

Well, yeah, but the FO thought Donovan McNabb would be a pro bowl performer, and that John Beck would be a largely mistake free starter capable of executing the offense. What they think of Matt Flynn says nothing about Matt Flynn. Good or bad.

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, yeah, but the FO thought Donovan McNabb would be a pro bowl performer, and that John Beck would be a largely mistake free starter capable of executing the offense. What they think of Matt Flynn says nothing about Matt Flynn. Good or bad.

Do you....Really believe all the nonsense that Shan throws out to placate to the media as gospel?
If I had to speculate (AND that is mostly all a fan can do), I think they hoped to "get away" with Beck and Rex for a season until suitable replacements could be drafted or...FA'd

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Disagree with FO that his floor is pro bowler. His floor is career backup with misguided starting stint.

The problem wasn't the stats analysis, it was the way the question was asked: "what was the worst case outcome of a player who exceeded 290 DYAR in a single performance?" But the real question that wasn't asked there was "what parameters are consistent in any 290 DYAR performance (specifically, Scott Mitchell's)." It just so happens that Aaron Rodgers, playing in the Packers offensive system, with the Packers offensive talent, is having one of the greatest quarterback seasons of all time. Is Aaron Rodgers one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play pro football? Maybe. But it's more likely that he's in the prime of his career right now because of the fertility of the offense around him.

Great stats -- ones that I use regularly -- poor analysis of the performance in a limited sample.

Rodgers has been posting great stats ever since he took over as the starter, even when he was one of the most sacked QBs in the league, and he doesn't skip a beat when he loses his "fertile" talent to injury (Finley, Jennings, etc.)

Their running game is a joke. Great QBs make make WRs. Whenever Favre's #1 WR would go somewhere else, they would fail (see Antonio Freeman). While I wouldn't put Flynn in the HOF today, I find it hard to believe his game was fluke. 480 yds and 6 TDs is strong indicator that this guy can play.

If the Skins got Flynn and used their 6th pick for Blackmon or made a deal with Cincy and got Alshon Jeffery late in the first round, they would have some real potential on Offense. Or if they got Bowe or Colston in free agency. Whatever the case, they could have a true #1 WR with Hankerson a good, young #2 and Santana Moss their slot WR. Hightower, Helu and Royster in the backfield and Davis and Cooley at TE. They can easily revamp the O line with other draft picks or in free agency.

[skinsfan69]

Bottom line, let someone else overpay for Flynn. Someone's going to do it. I just hope it's not us.

[mlmpetert]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Bottom line, let someone else overpay for Flynn. Someone's going to do it. I just hope it's not us.

Over paying via Danny's money is entirely differnt then over paying via draft picks and/or players. If GB franchises Flynn and wants to trade him ill be the first one that jumps off of the Flynn bandwagon.

I think the best interest for our team would be to sign a FA QB with a lot of potential (like Flynn) and do pretty much everything that 44Deezel said. We still draft another QB. Who knows, maybe well get real lucky and have RGIII fall to us at 6. If so we still draft him and have both Flynn and RGIII on board, if not well at least we didnt give away the farm to move up 3 spots to get an unproven rookie.

What we should all like the most about Flynn is that he gives us a lot of flexability. But if GB puts the frachise tag on him, his value dimishes greatly in my eyes.

[SCRedskinsFan]

Hadn't heard about the possibility of GB putting the franchise tag on Flynn. And wouldn't that be very expensive for a back-up QB?

I agree with those that say we should try to acquire him, but for $$$ only, no other compensation. DS can afford it and I'm thinking at we have the cap room.

HTTR

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SCRedskinsFan

Hadn't heard about the possibility of GB putting the franchise tag on Flynn. And wouldn't that be very expensive for a back-up QB?

It's only $16 or $17 million.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

It's only $16 or $17 million.

For a QB that had one great game...lol


This isn't like Cassell's situation where he played good the whole year and got the team to 11 wins. They aren't going to franchise this guy, and nobody would pay him that type of money even if he were franchised.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by mlmpetert

Over paying via Danny's money is entirely differnt then over paying via draft picks and/or players. If GB franchises Flynn and wants to trade him ill be the first one that jumps off of the Flynn bandwagon.

I think the best interest for our team would be to sign a FA QB with a lot of potential (like Flynn) and do pretty much everything that 44Deezel said. We still draft another QB. Who knows, maybe well get real lucky and have RGIII fall to us at 6. If so we still draft him and have both Flynn and RGIII on board, if not well at least we didnt give away the farm to move up 3 spots to get an unproven rookie.

What we should all like the most about Flynn is that he gives us a lot of flexability. But if GB puts the frachise tag on him, his value dimishes greatly in my eyes.

Regardless of what GB does we shouldn't go after him. Way too much risk involved here. As I said, someone's going to have to pay him 40 million. It's going to be a bidding war. Give up a draft pick and over pay cause GB is going to want compensation...and or what? Two starts? No thanks. This has Kevin Kolb written all over it. Let's go get our own guy in the draft. This is a deep class and we should be able to get a guy in the 2nd round that has more potential than Flynn. The guy on A&M? Foles?

[CrustyRedskin]

Id rather have Laura Flynn Boyle.

[JoeRedskin]

I'm with mlpertert on this one - who cares if DS wants to overpay. The only question that involves is "Will this signing inhibit or hurt our ability to be flexible under the cap?" If DS wants to pay big bucks but does so in a way that we can still sign guys to fill some other gaps - Yeah!! If signing Flynn means foregoing other signings, I am less enthused. If signing Flynn means giving up draft picks, I'm out.

[30gut]

We should be signing the next Matt Flynn.
Correction.
We should have signed the next Matt Flynn last year.

But, who is the next Matt Flynn?