Ukraine mega thread

[nonniey]

Good Twitter link. Lots of videos. Most interesting one (imo) is a video posted earlier today of Russian Helicopters flying low over a lake one of which gets hit and dives/crashes into the lake (will need to scroll down on the page a bit to find it now).


oops forgot to post the link here you all go.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Good Twitter link. Lots of videos. Most interesting one (imo) is a video posted earlier today of Russian Helicopters flying low over a lake one of which gets hit and dives/crashes into the lake (will need to scroll down on the page a bit to find it now).


oops forgot to post the link here you all go.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender

That is a really good twitter link.

[punch it in]

[nonniey]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 3

(Note an interesting bit is this part ".....Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.")

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-march-3

[nonniey]

Downer of an article but probably spot on.
"........War can produce breathtaking heroism and heartbreaking solidarity. But it primarily generates waste and suffering. Vladimir Putin has committed a grave crime against the entire world. The near certainty that he will lose this war is cold comfort, given the probability that everyone else will too."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...one/ar-AAUvZKl

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Downer of an article but probably spot on.
"........War can produce breathtaking heroism and heartbreaking solidarity. But it primarily generates waste and suffering. Vladimir Putin has committed a grave crime against the entire world. The near certainty that he will lose this war is cold comfort, given the probability that everyone else will too."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...one/ar-AAUvZKl

Another good article. Big picture.

No "good" alternatives.

Keep the good articles coming nonniery. please.

[Chico23231]

Alotta the early news and social media info is pro Ukraine and it’s true the Russians struggled at first. But the Russian are changing up strategies and they called in the Chechens. It’s gonna get a lot more brutal. Sieges ala Aleppo a couple years ago is gonna be bad.

Will Ukraine move to insurgency?

We will see, but Russia is still in the drivers seat IMO.

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Alotta the early news and social media info is pro Ukraine and it’s true the Russians struggled at first. But the Russian are changing up strategies and they called in the Chechens. It’s gonna get a lot more brutal. Sieges ala Aleppo a couple years ago is gonna be bad.

Will Ukraine move to insurgency?

We will see, but Russia is still in the drivers seat IMO.

Yeah .. its going to get bad. Russia is going to have to flatten Ukraine to win .. and Putin is going to win, despite losing everything.
Seems like Russia tried to march in thinking Ukraine would capitulate, itd be quick, theyd put on a huge PR blitz, ride out sanctions like when they took Crimea and the world eventually moved on.

The world is not moving on from this.

I hope President Zelensky is still alive when I hop back on here on monday.

Worst case scenario -- Putin doesnt win?

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

Yeah .. its going to get bad. Russia is going to have to flatten Ukraine to win .. and Putin is going to win, despite losing everything.
Seems like Russia tried to march in thinking Ukraine would capitulate, itd be quick, theyd put on a huge PR blitz, ride out sanctions like when they took Crimea and the world eventually moved on.

The world is not moving on from this.

I hope President Zelensky is still alive when I hop back on here on monday.

Worst case scenario -- Putin doesnt win?

Its like every scenario is the worst case scenario. All tied for last. All because Putin wants to live in 1990.

[Chico23231]

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

Capabilities they probably lack. The Russian army outnumbers them, has more airpower and better strategic positioning (They partially surround Ukraine). I'd love it if Ukraine could mount a counter-offensive but just doubt they can. They have been able to conduct counter attacks which is why the Russians were not able to use Hostelmel Airport as an air bridge.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

They don’t have the weaponry and they don’t have the logistical capability to supply a sustained offensive. When they’re fighting from a defensive position tight to their own cities it’s easier to resupply. They’re going to have to remain there.

Russia’s victory is inevitable, there’s just a raw cold military math at play. They just keep coming and keep coming. Even if losses are 2 parts Russian and 1 part Ukraine in every engagement, Russia still inevitably wins due to sheer numbers.

But the question is can Ukraine weaken them enough in that process to make holding the territory impossible for Russia, at which time you mount the insurrection. In that sense, Russia will assuredly fail. But not before Ukraine is ostensibly destroyed in the process.

I really wish the military math were in favor of the US getting more involved but it isn’t. In which scenario do more people die: 1) US steps in to defend Ukraine and war breaks out between US and Russia or 2) US stands by and watches Russia slowly salt away Ukraine’s defenses.

Far fewer die in scenario 2 and so we must stay away, as much as it feels like the wrong thing to do.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

They don’t have the weaponry and they don’t have the logistical capability to supply a sustained offensive. When they’re fighting from a defensive position tight to their own cities it’s easier to resupply. They’re going to have to remain there.

Russia’s victory is inevitable, there’s just a raw cold military math at play. They just keep coming and keep coming. Even if losses are 2 parts Russian and 1 part Ukraine in every engagement, Russia still inevitably wins due to sheer numbers.

But the question is can Ukraine weaken them enough in that process to make holding the territory impossible for Russia, at which time you mount the insurrection. In that sense, Russia will assuredly fail. But not before Ukraine is ostensibly destroyed in the process.

I really wish the military math were in favor of the US getting more involved but it isn’t. In which scenario do more people die: 1) US steps in to defend Ukraine and war breaks out between US and Russia or 2) US stands by and watches Russia slowly salt away Ukraine’s defenses.

Far fewer die in scenario 2 and so we must stay away, as much as it feels like the wrong thing to do.

The US has to back down for now.Once NATO gets involved then yes but the fear is if we go in China backs Russia and goes after Taiwan then we have wars on both sides and it's WWIII . The other fear is Putin is a mad man who doesn't give a flying fuck about others or his own people he will use his nuclear option the question is when?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Giantone

The US has to back down for now.Once NATO gets involved then yes but the fear is if we go in China backs Russia and goes after Taiwan then we have wars on both sides and it's WWIII . The other fear is Putin is a mad man who doesn't give a flying fuck about others or his own people he will use his nuclear option the question is when?

I think we just said the same thing.

[nonniey]

4 March Assessment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ign-assessment