Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

[saden1]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

What's vulgar and unreasonable to you could be simple common sense to someone else, and to argue that your position should be considered the higher authority in all disagreements is beyond ignorant, it would be arrogant and utterly pathetic.

Which is why, to avoid such a situation, I feel you would be wise to master the skill of arguing based on implications. If the implication is "abortion=murder" (which is something I don't even necessarily agree with, but a lot of very intelligent people do), then you can't act like the people who believe this are inherently wrong. To do so would be batshit crazy.

I'm sharing my views. I know where pro-lifers stand and they know where I stand. What are you expecting from me? I'm I suppose to agree with them, understand their position, reason with them? I'm tired of their stupidness and I won't tolerate it. There's no middle ground when it comes to abortion in the case rape/incests. None whatsoever!

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

What's vulgar and unreasonable to you could be simple common sense to someone else, and to argue that your position should be considered the higher authority in all disagreements is beyond ignorant, it would be arrogant and utterly pathetic.

Which is why, to avoid such a situation, I feel you would be wise to master the skill of arguing based on implications. If the implication is "abortion=murder" (which is something I don't even necessarily agree with, but a lot of very intelligent people do), then you can't act like the people who believe this are inherently wrong. To do so would be batshit crazy.

Great post.

[12thMan]

I don't think the pick was brilliant at all. Interesting, yes. Brilliant,that remains to be seen. One thing is for sure, we still haven't seen how this woman responds to the national spot light. The other three candidates have been vetted and then some for the past nineteen months. She'll get her's condensed over the next two. I have no doubt that she's smart and a solid politician, but she'll have to flesh that out for all to see.

Also, I feel there's far more downside than upside to this pick. For one, if McCain somehow thinks this will sow up the disaffected Hillary supporters, I think that's a serious miscalculation on his part and could have a serious backlash. In other words, this pick somehow suggests that these women were in it because of gender and not passionate about issues like a woman's right to choose. Speaking of which, she's a staunch conservative on most major issues that matter to women of Hillary's ilk and that of the Dem. party.

So on paper this pick looks interesting, but let's see how she performs in the ring of battle and on the stump day in and day out.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I don't think the pick was brilliant at all. Interesting, yes. Brilliant,that remains to be seen. One thing is for sure, we still haven't seen how this woman responds to the national spot light. The other three candidates have been vetted and then some for the past nineteen months. She'll get her's condensed over the next two. I have no doubt that she's smart and a solid politician, but she'll have to flesh that out for all to see.

Also, I feel there's far more downside than upside to this pick. For one, if McCain somehow thinks this will sow up the disaffected Hillary supporters, I think that's a serious miscalculation on his part and could have a serious backlash. In other words, this pick somehow suggests that these women were in it because of gender and not passionate about issues like a woman's right to choose. Speaking of which, she's a staunch conservative on most major issues that matter to women of Hillary's ilk and that of the Dem. party.

So on paper this pick looks interesting, but let's see how she performs in the ring of battle and on the stump day in and day out.

The Palin move wasn't meant to go after Hillary supporters as much as it was to energize the conservative base. Conservatives have been very concerned about McCain's committment to conservative social values, and they vowed to give him a hard time if he selected Joe Lieberman as his running mate.

When it comes to Hillary supporters, 75% of them said they supported Obama before he picked Biden. When he picked Biden and passed over Hillary, only 66% of Hillary supporters said they would support Obama.

The act of passing over Hillary for VP appeared to alienate some of her supporters, and McCain sensed that he could appeal to them. But he's not doing that through Palin, Palin is there to pander to the conservatives. He's going to appeal to Hillary's supporters through his own centrist tendencies.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

The Palin move wasn't meant to go after Hillary supporters as much as it was to energize the conservative base. Conservatives have been very concerned about McCain's committment to conservative social values, and they vowed to give him a hard time if he selected Joe Lieberman as his running mate.

When it comes to Hillary supporters, 75% of them said they supported Obama before he picked Biden. When he picked Biden and passed over Hillary, only 66% of Hillary supporters said they would support Obama.

The act of passing over Hillary for VP appeared to alienate some of her supporters, and McCain sensed that he could appeal to them. But he's not doing that through Palin, Palin is there to pander to the conservatives. He's going to appeal to Hillary's supporters through his own centrist tendencies.

I disagree, I think in large part McCain took keen note of the trouble Barack was having with some Hill supporters and saw this as an opening and a potential game changer. Yes, he may rally the conservative base but at what cost? What do Indie voters think about this pick? Are they as conservative on many of the social issues that Palin has and does stand for? In the end, this election is coming down to that slice of the electorate. Obama is trying to rally his base and so is McCain. If both are successful, then it comes down to the independent voter. Another thing, McCain needs that vote more than Obama. This woman adds maybe two things to McCain's ticket. She's an energy buff, coming from the state of Alaska, and she's a woman. And to the extent he can capitilize on the latter will determine how good a pick this was. Now whether or not this was truly McCain's motive, no one knows. But I can tell you first hand, many of my Hillary friends see this as an insult.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I disagree, I think in large part McCain took keen note of the trouble Barack was having with some Hill supporters and saw this as an opening and a potential game changer. Yes, he may rally the conservative base but at what cost? What do Indie voters think about this pick? Are they as conservative on many of the social issues that Palin has and does stand for? In the end, this election is coming down to that slice of the electorate. Obama is trying to rally his base and so is McCain. If both are successful, then it comes down to the independent voter. Another thing, McCain needs that vote more than Obama. This woman adds maybe two things to McCain's ticket. She's an energy buff, coming from the state of Alaska, and she's a woman. And to the extent he can capitilize on the latter will determine how good a pick this was. Now whether or not this was truly McCain's motive, no one knows. But I can tell you first hand, many of my Hillary friends see this as an insult.

Poll shows no convention bounce for Obama - CNN.com

"Women now appear slightly more likely to vote for Obama than they did a week ago, 53 percent now, compared to 50 percent. But McCain picked up a couple of points among men.

"More important, McCain solidified his party's base with the Palin selection, dropping Obama's share of the Republican vote six points to just 5 percent now. The Palin selection did not help among women -- that may come later -- but it did appeal to Republican loyalists."

[firstdown]

Well while this has been fun its slow at work and I'm going home. Good Day

[BleedBurgundy]

Yeah, i think the only voters who go from Clinton to McCain will most likely do so out of spite for the (in their mind) slights Hillary took from Obama.

[wilsowilso]

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by wilsowilso

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

Not so fast my friend.....

War Room - Salon.com

You're right on about the conservative Christian vote, but the rest of your analysis is way off.

Angry Clinton supporters toast McCain, roast Obama - CNN.com

Hillary Supporters for McCain: Gov. Sarah Palin: Presidential Material

Ha! Say the Online Hillary Supporters | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

The first article is from CNN (no bastion of conservatism) and these numbers don't bode well for Obama, "But there is some bad news for Obama. The poll showed that 66 percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June."

Let's look at those numbers. Hillary was claiming approximately 18 million votes in the primary, for the sake of being conservative (pun intended), let's say it was only 10 million. Now polls are showing approximately 27% are favoring McCain, not staying home, favoring McCain. Being conservative again, let's say the real number is 20%, that translates into 2 million votes for McCain that are coming from the Democrat base. That is a 4 million vote swing. If those votes are in battleground areas (very likely) the media will be forecasting McCain the winner before midnight on election night.

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

[wilsowilso]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

Obama doesn't at all need the support of these so called Hillary Clinton supporters. These are supporters from the primary election season(the tracking will change for the general election seeing as how many states allowed Republicans to actually vote in Democratic primaries). Voters that are upset enough that Clinton didn't win the nomination that they would actually cross party lines and or vote for a woman who quite literally is on the exact opposite side of the aisle on just about every major issue are actually just voters who were part of the GOP base to begin with. The only reason they were going to vote for a Democrat was simply because Hillary was a woman. It's all about core issues and the number of so called "Hillary effect" defectors that are actually true democrats who would completely disregard whatever issues are most important to their everyday lives just because they are bitter is not going to be very dramatic IMO.

Also, the choice of Palin(pro life) basically guarantees that anyone in those polls who's got concerns about the core issue that a woman should have the right to choose will vote for Obama. No matter how mad you might be nobody's giving up basic constitutionally protected rights just to prove a point.

[NM Redskin]

What will be interesting to see, is will the Hilary supporters support Palin ,after Hilary starts to slam Palin? If I was the Dems, I would send Hilary after her.

[NM Redskin]

Hey Gtripp and Sammy, trying attacking the message and not the sender, it makes you look stupid.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NM Redskin

Hey Gtripp and Sammy, trying attacking the message and not the sender, it makes you look stupid.

?

I'm sorry, but this is the first time in the thread that someone has been personally attacked. Does that make...never mind.

--EDIT-- On review, I see that you probably weren't looking to attack me or Slingin' Sammy, but I still don't know what part of my or his responses offended you.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by NM Redskin

Hey Gtripp and Sammy, trying attacking the message and not the sender, it makes you look stupid.

I don't believe I've ever personally attacked saden, while we're on the opposite side of most issues, I don't believe our debate has ever devolved into a personal attack.

If you took my message to be that, it was certainly not.