A Clarification on whether the Redskins are Re-Building

[GTripp0012]

Let's talk about re-building.

I want to know where you view your Washington Redskins in 2012. Whether you believed the Redskins were/were not rebuilding last year isn't relevant. Last year is in the past. What are your expectations for 2012? Through what lens are you trying to view this offseason?

On one hand, the Redskins are planning on rebuilding around young talent like Garcon, Hankerson, and Griffin. Maybe you don't think they have the pieces to compete in 2012 and that's okay: the Redskins aren't giving large contracts to players over the age of 27. They didn't last year, and they haven't this year. A targeted rebuilding project can be completed while core signings like Cofield, Bowen, Wilson, Garcon, and Morgan are under the age of 30. Maybe it doesn't matter that we're letting players walk when their rookie contracts are up: that's what rebuilding teams do.

On the other hand, can a rebuilding team really give up any and all future first rounders it has for the duration of the head coaches' contract? Isn't that the ultimate "cashing in the chips" move? And why use up the entirety of your cap space, whatever the number is, if you're rebuilding? The Redskins cashed in everything to build the best possible passing game they could have going into 2012; that doesn't strike one as patient or building.

But in the context of a multi-year rebuilding project? This might just be the most costly step in the process. No one said buying yourself a passing offense was cheap or easy.

Finally, do you think the Redskins even know if they're rebuilding or not? It seems like they could spin it either way at this point (lose = rebuilding, win = future is now!). I personally am tired of the front office spin though, I'd rather get YOUR perspective. So have at it.

[GusFrerotte]

Yeah, we are rebuilding still. Too many holes to fill in terms of starting caliber players, along with depth issues at O line and LB in my opinion. The gamble for RG III probably will pay off, but most likely hold back the team a year or two in finishing the process. We are moving in the right direction, but we could have used those 2 extra first rounders. I understand we desperately need a true starting caliber QB, but we paid a steep price to get him.

[Ruhskins]

I think the Redskins are finally rebuilding on offense (two years too late if you ask me). Last year to me, seemed like a rebuilding year for the defense. We have a lot of young players that hopefully can develop into starters (though some of them got starts last year due to injury), and hopefully we can pick up 6 more rookies (in addition to RG3) that can contribute to the team. I think we have done a good job at bringing in free agents under 30 years old for the most part this offseason and last offseason.

So far, it seems to me that the team has gone away from the win-now attitude. Although who knows what would have happened if we had not had the cap penalty. Still, I think we have a young team who won't be expected to do much this season, but has the potential to overachieve. I get the feeling that Snyder has given Shanahan and Bruce Allen a mulligan for the past two seasons. And that is a good thing, because we will definitely have a lot of growing pains this upcoming season.

Still, what I want to see from Shanahan is leadership. I don't want to see a team that gives up midway through the season. I don't want to see any more drama with players. And I want to see a competitive team on the field, and an improved offense. I think RG3's leadership will help and I think bringing back Fletch will help in the leadership department. This team has some talent, but I think they have been lacking from coaching/locker room leadership in the past two seasons. Hopefully this changes this season.

[mooby]

I'm not really getting caught up in it because their moves don't indicate a clear path in one direction, but I think they decided trading up for the #2 was the best option because they didn't want to go into next season with a combo of 2nd rate talents. I think they briefly flirted with the idea of bringing Manning in, but that was out once Manning decided he didn't want to come here.

So they realized the qb options were drying up quickly, and they also realized if they didn't get an elite prospect in here this season and we had another bad season, patience probably would've ran out and Snyder would've let them go. So they gambled big and now are hedging their bets on whichever rookie qb we pick (prob. Griffin). I think they have an idea of the direction they want to go in, but they aren't strictly abiding by the rules of that plan. It's more just a loose direction they want to go in.

[GusFrerotte]

To even think playoffs before 2014 would be iffy to me. Not only did we lose the two first rounders, we lost a second rounder as well, so one of these upcoming drafts we will probably not yield any starting material, unless we get a Cooley type gem in the late rounds.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

Yeah, we are rebuilding still. Too many holes to fill in terms of starting caliber players, along with depth issues at O line and LB in my opinion. The gamble for RG III probably will pay off, but most likely hold back the team a year or two in finishing the process. We are moving in the right direction, but we could have used those 2 extra first rounders. I understand we desperately need a true starting caliber QB, but we paid a steep price to get him.

Would it be fair to say the cost to get RG3 won't be felt now (RG3 could be a huge upgrade to our offense even as a rookie), but much harder in 2013-2017?

If so, that would mean playoffs now are a lot more viable than playoffs in the near-term future.

I think our chances in 2012 and leaking into 2013 are as good as they are going to get until 2016, when we already have a good concept of what RG3 means to us.

We could be a perennial playoff team and NFC East contender, but that would require Griffin to be a 30 TD guy right from the start.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

To even think playoffs before 2014 would be iffy to me. Not only did we lose the two first rounders, we lost a second rounder as well, so one of these upcoming drafts we will probably not yield any starting material, unless we get a Cooley type gem in the late rounds.

Perry Riley, Roy Helu, Leonard Hankerson, Jarvins Jenkins, and Evan Royster are all players acquired after the first round in the past two seasons that have the potential to be starters. While it is terrible that we don't have our first rounders in 2013 and 2014, I don't see why we can't acquire a starter in the mid rounds during those two years.

[Pigskins]

I don't think teams have time to rebuild in the nfl, 3 years and no playoffs usually means your fired, we will always try I improve the team, but look at last years 49ers, people would say they were rebuilding and they made it to the championship game, it's the nfl anythings possible

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Pigskins

I don't think teams have time to rebuild in the nfl, 3 years and no playoffs usually means your fired, we will always try I improve the team, but look at last years 49ers, people would say they were rebuilding and they made it to the championship game, it's the nfl anythings possible

I don't follow the 49ers a lot, but I think roster-wise they really didn't make a ton of changes. I guess you could say they were rebuilding b/c they got a new coach, but it happens that there was talent in that roster, they just needed a coach that can make that talent produce.

I think the Bengals were a better example of your point. I kinda hope we would be on the same situation, but given our crappy secondary I don't think our defense is going to be that good (which was a big part of the Bengals' success if memory serves me right).

[GTripp0012]

Here's some interesting stats for context.

The average age of an NFL player (as of Dec. 31, 2012) is 27.3 years of age, and the median entry draft for a current NFL player is 2009 (which means that half the NFL was drafted during or prior to the 2009 draft, and half during or after it).

For the Washington Redskins, the average player is 26.8 years old (goes to 27.0 if you include Fletcher), and the median draft class is 2009.

All those numbers will drop considerably following the draft for all teams.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Perry Riley, Roy Helu, Leonard Hankerson, Jarvins Jenkins, and Evan Royster are all players acquired after the first round in the past two seasons that have the potential to be starters. While it is terrible that we don't have our first rounders in 2013 and 2014, I don't see why we can't acquire a starter in the mid rounds during those two years.

If you add up the probabilities of finding a starter in rounds 3-6, you come to the expectation of getting one starter of the middle rounds every year.

Or phrased a bit differently, if you had the 15th pick in every round from 3-6, and you put all your scouting resources to trying to find the best pick available at a position where the player wasn't blocked in every round, you would expect to be successful one of those picks, and unsuccessful with three of those picks.

So while the Redskins are not guaranteed any starters in this draft not named Robert Griffin, they can reasonably expect to find at least one guy later on who can move into the starting lineup.

[Chief X_Phackter]

My opinion on the subject is that this isn't the NFL of a couple decades ago. I think MOST teams in today's NFL are forced to sort of rebuild every year or at least every couple-few years. Some teams and front offices do a better job at it than others. Unfortunately for many years we have had a pretty bad front office, inconsistency with coaches and offensive/defensive schemes, and an owner who liked to meddle too much...(not to mention subpar QB play) so we are perhaps further behind in the process of fielding a quality team year-in and year-out than a program like the Redskins should be.

I hear the word parity used a lot with regard to the NFL these days, and I do think there is more parity now than ever before due to the constant turnover of personnel amongst the teams. Not just players either; there is turnover with coaches, assistants, FO personnel, GMs, etc. This turnover causes every team to sort of "rebuild" or "build" constantly. The task of taking all the new pieces, schemes, personalities, etc. and putting it together to field a competitive organization each year is a challenge. Programs with great program managers, and stability in the coaching staff (i.e. Patriots, Steelers, Packers, etc.) and key positions (i.e. QB) are obviously better at this than programs that just seem to fumble through each year (i.e. Redskins).

Everyone with common sense knew that after bringing on board the new front office, GM, Coaching staff, philosophy, etc. it would take a few years to right the ship. I would say that the Redskins are in a much better position now than they were three years ago. I think this time next year I will say this team is in a much better position than they were a year ago... Have there been mistakes? Sure they happen. Will there be more mistakes? Yes. However, we are moving in the right direction. I think the future is now and I think we will continue to build this thing.

And for the record, Idon't think we have "mortgaged our future" for RGIII. I think that was a move that had to be made. Guys like RGIII and Luck don't come along very often. I commend them for getting that done.

I for one am looking forward to the next several years...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by mooby

I'm not really getting caught up in it because their moves don't indicate a clear path in one direction, but I think they decided trading up for the #2 was the best option because they didn't want to go into next season with a combo of 2nd rate talents. I think they briefly flirted with the idea of bringing Manning in, but that was out once Manning decided he didn't want to come here.

So they realized the qb options were drying up quickly, and they also realized if they didn't get an elite prospect in here this season and we had another bad season, patience probably would've ran out and Snyder would've let them go. So they gambled big and now are hedging their bets on whichever rookie qb we pick (prob. Griffin). I think they have an idea of the direction they want to go in, but they aren't strictly abiding by the rules of that plan. It's more just a loose direction they want to go in.

I think you're probably right on every point here. But without trying to get you caught up in it, where would you predict their next move is, if you had to guess: towards 2012, or towards 2013-2016?

[skinsfaninok]

If RGIII lives up to the number 2 pick? This team won't rebuild for long

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

If RGIII lives up to the number 2 pick? This team won't rebuild for long

So they aren't rebuilding? Or you don't expect RG3 to live up to the no. 2 pick (at least right away)?