Loose Change

[hooskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Yeah, jsarno, you're dead wrong on the red and black thing. You're basically saying that if you flip a coin and it lands on heads 3 times in a row, then it's more than 50% likely to land on tails during the next flip.

That's flat out incorrect. Events that happened in the past are exactly that, in the past. They do nothing to change the probabilities of future outcomes.

Your stance makes you appear uneducated.

Sorry jsarno, but I would agree with Schneed here. I mean I have extensively studied statistics and gambling "techniques" are constantly disproved, starting at the 101 level.

I also done quite a bit of econometrics too. I am not trying to get into an argument about who is qualified, just want to let you know I have been educated in these fields. Last time I tried to let people know I was ripped a new one...thanks Schneed

[hooskins]

Originally Posted by jsarno

I have given it to very close friends and family...it is not publishing worthy yet. I haven't had the time to refine it to get it published. I am not a good author.

I also don't want to steal your idea, but please tell me when the book is out. I will most definitely be interested in it.

Also I don't mean to insult, I am just a skeptic.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by hooskins

I also don't want to steal your idea, but please tell me when the book is out. I will most definitely be interested in it.

Also I don't mean to insult, I am just a skeptic.

I responded via PM.

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Honestly, it's a lot of pages worth of studies, I have a long book written on it. I haven't even scratched the surface of describing the method here. There was a thread here a LONG time ago that explained it a little, and some here even PMed me to thank me for helping them win money. Of course there were others that just went ahead and insulted me due to their own fears and fart sniffing. It's all good.
Vegas wouldn't go out of business cause of my book, you don't bet enough money to win enough money to break vegas. You have to start small...$5 max in each section, then go from there.
[B]What I find most amusing is the amount of people that are willing to try and be successful, and the amount of people that would rather not bother and persecute those that do. When you sit back and watch how people react, it's quite interesting. The same people tell you "Mari-ju-wana is bad mmm kay", and yet they haven't tried it...the same people that tell you not to open up and try and they are content to sit on the sidelines and watch life.

Regardless, if you are content knowing only what you know, how will you ever learn anything new? (be warned that some here think they know everything)

ps- if you beleive in the ideal of carma, than understanding other things are possible becomes a lot easier[/B].

Well I don't know about other people, but I for one have trouble rejecting stastical laws because you claim your buddies have won a lot of money. Sorry that I'm not willing to take you on your word on this as of yet, but the only specific information that you have offered - that the past impacts the present in measurable statistical terms - is quite ludicrous. This isn't me persecuting you or hating on your success, that's just the way it is. I'd love to hear more about the theory before I unfairly dismiss it, but you have only offered two pieces of info (3 reds increases the chance of black and it has worked for my buddies, trust me!). I know you aren't trying to convert me or anyone else here but I would like some more info just for the sake of discussion.

As for Karma, I would like to believe in it but I would certainly reject any statistical analysis that incorporates it as a factor.

[724Skinsfan]

LOL! I can't believe this topic came back up. Actually, I have what I call a "comfort system" when playing roulette. Essentially, it's a pattern that makes me feel like I'm in control...until black/red is rolled 7 times in a row and I've lost $180.

[Schneed10]

The reason jsarno won't fully discuss his system publicly is because he's not confident enough in it himself to go out and make a living by using it.

Simple logic:

Per jsarno, the system works over the long haul. You may lose battles, but you'll win wars.

Therefore, over the long haul, there is no risk. You will win in the long term.

So if there's no risk, why not quit the job you were complaining about a few months ago when considering moving to Denver, and just use your system in Vegas to get extraordinarily rich, and retire to do whatever floats your boat?

There's a reason people spend the time writing a book about these things. It's easier to dupe uneducated morons into believing in gambling systems than it is to get one to actually work, in the long haul, by yourself.

In my opinion, writing a book on the matter, trying to convince people it works, is unethical (unless you really are dumb enough to ignore the laws of statistics and actually buy into it, but given that you have an MBA you have been through stat classes, so either you flunked that class or you're just flat out unethical). That's why I'm so critical of you. What you're doing with the book is flat out wrong.

[FRPLG]

We aen't really talking about stats. We are talking about statistical/mathimatical laws. Many of these laws are pretty obvious, at least I thought they were.

1+1 = 2 I doubt many would argue that

Given a coin with two sides there are only 2 outcomes and each is just as likely.

I think jsarno believes there is some more cosmic and karmic forces at work. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[hooskins]

Total thread hijack, but I dont think jsnaro believes there is some kind of karma.

he is adamant that his system works based ON stat and math. I really want to see how this book will refute basic statistics/logic.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by hooskins

Total thread hijack, but I dont think jsnaro believes there is some kind of karma.

he is adamant that his system works based ON stat and math. I really want to see how this book will refute basic statistics/logic.

karma is definitely involved, he's says as much if you scroll back a few posts

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by hooskins

Total thread hijack, but I dont think jsnaro believes there is some kind of karma.

he is adamant that his system works based ON stat and math. I really want to see how this book will refute basic statistics/logic.

Actually I think FRPLG is right, thinking back to the last time we talked about this, jsarno said something insane about "the universe tending to even itself out" or some such nonsense. He thinks it's that cosmic force that actually increases the probabilities of red and black at different times.

:yeahright

[jamf]

Originally Posted by DynamiteRave

Whats the probability of it landing on its side?

In roulette, The equivalent is landing on a Zero or Double Zero.
The odds are 1 and 37 in doing so.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jamf

In roulette, The equivalent is landing on a Zero or Double Zero.
The odds are 1 and 37 in doing so.

And therein lies the house's advantage that is impossible to beat.

To play any single number on the board, you have a one in 37 chance of hitting it (one in 38 if the wheel has 0 and 00). But if you hit it, you only get paid 36 times your bet.

That's why you lose in the long run. Inevitably. Without fail. Go ahead, make a random number generator in excel, from one to 37. Try it out.

[Monkeydad]

How is this not locked yet?

[JGisLordOfTheRings]

Originally Posted by Buster

How is this not locked yet?

Because we're still discussing loose change here! lol

[drew54]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Drew, help me out here. Am I not trying to restore some sense of civility here?

After seeing where this thing was headed, I checked out. I just cannot handle all of the Warpath on Warpath crime.

Glad to see that this didn't end as badly as it once was.