North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

[CRedskinsRule]

It really depends a lot on how serious the NK's first surge would be. IF the military got the ok, their goal would have to be capturing the SK supply depots. It is only 200 miles from Seoul to Busan (south end of SK).

We would win because we have a lot more overall resources, but it would be painful.

And ultimately, it just depends on how stable K-Un and his advisors are, I worry about him, because, although he did grow up with some western training, most of his life has been indoctrination to his grandfather and father's beliefs. And when the NK press continues talking about being thrice cursed for disrespecting the grandfather and father, it just sounds like a bad episode of SVU where the criminal goes off the deep end.

[CRedskinsRule]

The good thing is that China would be highly unlikely to take up for the NK's like they did in the Korean War. They have a heavy trading dependency with SK now, and I am sure they want to keep the status quo. Let's hope they are getting that through to NK.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

It really depends a lot on how serious the NK's first surge would be. IF the military got the ok, their goal would have to be capturing the SK supply depots. It is only 200 miles from Seoul to Busan (south end of SK).

We would win because we have a lot more overall resources, but it would be painful.

And ultimately, it just depends on how stable K-Un and his advisors are, I worry about him, because, although he did grow up with some western training, most of his life has been indoctrination to his grandfather and father's beliefs. And when the NK press continues talking about being thrice cursed for disrespecting the grandfather and father, it just sounds like a bad episode of SVU where the criminal goes off the deep end.

You been watching alot of SVU lately, too?

[Dirtbag59]

I honestly believe the "plan" is to hurry up and wait for North Korea to collapse from the inside so the process of re-unification can begin without a bloody war, which technically we would easily win but not without a good amount of property damage and casualties to South Korea civilians, which as I mentioned before could easily be over 100,000 during an initial assault.

Obvious problems with reunification among others are that North Korea is decades behind in terms of technology and education. You also have a large portion of people who genuinely believe that the Kim dynasty are God like figures and have been indoctrinated beyond repair. You also could easily have a power vacuum where someone just as bad as the Kim's could take over and keep the status quo. In short, its a mess.

Usually I consider myself an isolationist. I look at countries like Israel and find myself frustrated with all the trouble we have to go through with keeping them safe in a part of the world that will likely never find peace. However then I look at South Korea and I can't help but hope that if an invasion from the North ever took place our military would give them nothing less then our full support.

I don't know, I guess that I feel like that part of the world has a lot to offer and if we're going to serve as the world police we might as well pay special attention to protecting countries like South Korea.

[Alvin Walton]

I dont see a runification happening.
Its been over 50 years.
They are totally different countries.
I doubt the south would want it, they would have to pay a lot to feed and prop up the north.
On the other hand if it came to blows...we win....Kim is gone.....we may inherit another Iraq style country full of Kim-heads. We may as well let China annex the north. Let them deal with it.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Alvin Walton

I dont see a runification happening.
Its been over 50 years.
They are totally different countries.
I doubt the south would want it, they would have to pay a lot to feed and prop up the north.
On the other hand if it came to blows...we win....Kim is gone.....we may inherit another Iraq style country full of Kim-heads. We may as well let China annex the north. Let them deal with it.

China doesn't want them. One thing I wonder, is how strong the re-unification feeling is in SK. When E/W Germany re-united, there was a lot of support at first from West Germans. But when they started having to incorporate the failed economy and infrastructure they were very quickly frustrated. So i wonder if SK would have that same "Yay" moment, or if they view themselves as two separate entities. I don't know, but I don't get the feeling that they really want to be re-unified.

[CRedskinsRule]

Just so you know why SK will lose :cheeky-sm

Army Devoid of Right of Operational Command (1)



Operational command is essential to an army. The right is as good as its life and soul.

But, the south Korean puppet army was deprived of the right of operational command by its foreign master and serves as cannon fodder and bullet-shield for it.



Right of Operational Command Lost to U.S.

On June 25, 1950 the U.S. and the Syngman Rhee puppet clique of south Korea launched an all-out surprise armed attack on the DPRK.

The invaders were so foolish as to brag that they would take breakfast in Haeju, lunch in Pyongyang and supper in Sinuiju. But, the result turned out contrary.

The Korean People's Army immediately went over to counterattack, liberating Seoul in three days and advancing on southward.

Much upset, on July 7th, 1950 the U.S. prodded the UNSC to pass a resolution on dispatching armed forces of UN member states to the Korean war and attaching them to the U.S.-led combined command.

According to the resolution, the U.S. hurried to conclude an agreement on putting the right of operational command of the south Korean puppet army under its control.

On July 14th, 1950 MacArthur, the then commander of the U.S. Far East Command, had talks with traitor Syngman Rhee in Taejon.

At the talks, traitor Rhee signed an agreement to hand the right of operational command of the south Korean puppet army over to the U.S.-led combined command.

The conclusion of the "Taejon Agreement" enabled the U.S. to use the south Korean puppet army as its war servant at will.

As a result, the south Korean puppet army was reduced to a jackstraw army that cannot use even a single shell without the U.S. approval and a bullet-shield army that must go into the jaws of death if the U.S. army orders.

Of course, even when the south Korean puppet army had the right of operational command, its position had been little different.

U.S. military advisers attached to corps, divisions and regiments of the puppet army controlled the puppet army with absolute authority.

The conclusion of the "Taejon Agreement" transferred the seeming right of operational command of the puppet army openly to the hands of the U.S.

So Nam Il

[CRedskinsRule]

interesting article

US military chief in Beijing warns of North Korea 'miscalculation'

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

China doesn't want them. One thing I wonder, is how strong the re-unification feeling is in SK. When E/W Germany re-united, there was a lot of support at first from West Germans. But when they started having to incorporate the failed economy and infrastructure they were very quickly frustrated. So i wonder if SK would have that same "Yay" moment, or if they view themselves as two separate entities. I don't know, but I don't get the feeling that they really want to be re-unified.

The more people that pass away from the Korean War generation the less the desire for reunification. A big part of the desire for reunification has been bringing families back together. Among the younger generations these family ties are detached, consisting of relatives they never knew (aunts/uncles and cousins if that). In the 80's and 90's you had brothers and sisters, even parents reuniting with Children. Now the only people left with such close ties would be among defectors who have family back in North Korea.

Of course as mentioned previously theres the fact that North Koreas economy is stuck in 1972 while South Korea has evolved with the rest of the modern world.

Ironically theres a reunification memorial called the Statue of Brothers in South Korea consisting of a North and South Korean embracing each other. In this memorial the North Korean was purposely made shorter then his Southern counterpart as this is now a reality after years of famine and malnutrition in the North that has produced a stunted generation, emotionally, intelectually, and most of all physically.

South Koreans are typically taller and weigh more than North Koreans, with the average North Korean adult being as much as 5 inches (about 12.7 cm) shorter and about 14 to 27 pounds (about 6 to 12.5 kg) lighter than their South Korean counterparts.

[CRedskinsRule]

BREAKING: South Korea warns of "grave measure" if North Korea rejects talks on shuttered inter-Korean factory park (via @AP)

Korean newspapers phrase it as serious measures. There are 180 SKs in Kaesong still and no supplies have been allowed to go from SK to NK for a while, although apparently they aren't being kept there as about 4-8 people leave every day.

[CRedskinsRule]

1) SK is pulling all its workers out of Kaesong. The North apparently is letting them leave. That's a good thing.

2) China is increasing it's military presence along the NK border to prevent floods of refugees if war breaks out. That's a bad thing, because if anyone at all knows NK's plans it is the Chinese, and if they are doing this because they don't know what NK is going to do, then that's bad too. Also, NK could easily mistake China's increased air sorties as a wink and a nod that China will come to their aid like they did in the last war.

3) NK has miracle doctors:

Seriously Burned Soldiers Completely Cured

Yun Kwang Jin and Kim Un Hyok, soldiers of the Korean People's Army, who had gotten serious burns on their bodies, were completely cured and left the Kangwon Provincial People's Hospital thanks to the sincere devotion of its medical staff and people of Wonsan City.

They were admitted to the hospital on February 20 after getting two or three degree burns on 15 percent of their bodies.

They threw themselves into the house in raising flames to safely retrieve the portraits of smiling great Generalissimos Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and rescue its several family members.
...

4) Don't forget that their army is invincible

KPA Is Invincible Thanks to Kim Jong Un: Papers
Pyongyang, April 25 (KCNA) --
...

The KPA is an invincible army which has recorded ever-victorious feats in its sacred colors for a long period since it was founded under the outstanding military idea and Songun leadership of the peerlessly great persons of Mt. Paektu, Rodong Sinmun says, and goes on:

The KPA has covered the road of victory and glory under the leadership of the great Generalissimos Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Its tremendous power is being fully demonstrated under the leadership of the dear respected Marshal Kim Jong Un.

It is the army strong in ideology, faith and will that devotedly defends its leader, idea and social system and a revolutionary army equipped with ever-victorious strategy and tactics of Supreme Commander Kim Jong Un and great capabilities for fighting an actual war.

It, grown under the care of the Generalissimos and firmly armed with Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism, has performed heroic feats in firmly defending the socialist system.

The DPRK remains unfazed as there is the powerful revolutionary Paektusan army with strong mental power.

The great war for national reunification to be waged by the KPA with Kim Jong Un's strategy and tactics will not be a three-day war but a blitz war to occupy the whole of south Korea and Jeju Island at one go before the U.S. and south Korean puppet warmongers even come to their senses, and three-dimensional war simultaneously fought in the sky, land and seas. The powerful firepower strike plan defined and ratified by Kim Jong Un, Juche-based military method and Korean-style original strategy and tactics by high-precision strike means have put the military might of the KPA on the highest level.

It is the revolutionary disposition and fighting tradition of the army and people of the DPRK to keep following the road chosen by themselves, with conviction of the validity of their cause and victory, no matter how desperately the imperialists try to invade it.

...

[CRedskinsRule]

As crazy as the NK's are, this part is basically true:

Nuke, Most Powerful War Deterrent



It is nearly 70 years since the first nuclear weapon made its appearance.

The period witnessed the complicated and chaotic situation.

Cold war persisted long and wars, big and small, were incessant in different areas.

There were more than 100 wars in 50 years after WWII.

Most of them were wars of aggression ignited by the imperialists to infringe upon other countries' sovereignty.

But the highhanded imperialists didn't dare kick off war against nuclear weapons states. Nuclear powers, big or small, have not undergone a military aggression.

It shows that no aggressor can pounce upon nuclear weapons state.

An evidence of it is the nuclear confrontation between the former Soviet Union and the U.S. during the cold war.

Toward the end of WWII, the U.S. was possessed of nuke for the first time in the world.

In August 1948 the former Soviet Union succeeded in an A-bomb test, thereby bursting the nuclear monopoly of the U.S. that was desirous of global hegemony.

After that, both the Soviet Union and the U.S. boosted their nuclear forces strong enough to retaliate against each other with nukes.

Therefore, they could not be the first to use nukes. The same is the case with China, a strategic rival of the U.S.

China had made strenuous efforts to be a military power and economic giant suitable to its position as a power in population and territory.

Its success in A-bomb test in October 1964 made China a country that no one can defy.

Contrary is the case with the countries on the Balkan Peninsula and the Middle East that fell victims to the aggression of imperialists. In the past, they didn’t strengthen their own defense capabilities, depending on great powers or even scrapped their war deterrent under the appeasement and pressure of the U.S.

As a result, they failed to defend their national dignity and sovereignty, let alone happiness and prosperity.

The reality shows that one can defend oneself only by countering nukes with nukes.

The U.S. is not the only country that is possessed of nuke.

But, no one inflicted so terrible nuclear disasters upon humanity as the U.S. that brandished nukes the moment it possessed A-bomb.

Now that the U.S. threatens us with nukes, a diplomatic way or call cannot ensure national sovereignty and safety and the socialist system from the U.S. nukes.

Our nuclear weapon is an out-and-out self-defensive war deterrent.

Jon Yong Hui
Copyright @ 2010-2013 by The Rodong Sinmun. All rights reserved.

[CRedskinsRule]

We know that they have moved LR missiles into launching areas a few weeks ago. Next we heard that they had moved short range missile batteries into place. And now this?

NK may conduct large-scale drills
By Kang Seung-woo

North Korea is reportedly getting ready for a large-scale combined military exercise off the west coast amid tensions re-emerging on the Korean Peninsula due to the South’s pullout from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

The North, which has kept the world on its toes over an expected missile launch, may carry out an exercise around Nampo, South Pyongan Province, involving its aircraft and field artillery units, Yonhap News reported Sunday.

“The South’s intelligence detected a sign of the North’s preparations for combined live-fire drills and its scale is likely to be quite large,” a government source was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said it does not have information regarding such an exercise.

The source also said there is a chance the North may opt to launch short-range projectiles as part of its show of force, but no timing for the drill was given.

The North has been expected to launch a mid-range Musudan missile or shorter Rodong or Scud rockets during key anniversaries in April after moving them to the east coast, because of its past cycle of military actions on those days, but there is no sign of any imminent launch.

“A large part of the North’s military is currently being used to help spring farming,” a military official said.

However, the South’s military has been put on alert against possible provocations after the complete withdrawal from the joint industrial zone.

ksw@koreatimes.co.kr

[CRedskinsRule]

Why Kaesong closed:

S. Korea Denounced for Making Public Decision to Do Away with KIZ



A spokesman for the General Bureau for Central Guidance to the Development of the Special Zone gave an answer to a question put by KCNA on April 27 as the puppet south Korean regime made public a "decision" of withdrawing all the personnel of the south side remaining in the Kaesong Industrial Zone (KIZ).

He said:

The south Korean conservatives held a meeting of ministers for diplomacy and security in Chongwadae with the presence of the chief executive. After the meeting they let the minister of Unification make public a "government statement".

The statement clarified the "decision" to withdraw all the south side's personnel remaining in the KIZ, citing "difficulty" and "protection of people" while shifting the blame for the KIZ situation on to the DPRK.

This is sheer sophism and hideous provocation of confrontation maniacs.

It is a well known fact that the puppet conservative group has persistently tried to do away with the KIZ, a product of the June 15 joint declaration.

Kim Kwan Jin, "minister of Defense", revealed a dangerous attempt to request the U.S. forces to hurl their commando into the KIZ for a military operation, crying out for "hostages" and "detention". Under such situation the DPRK blocked personnel of the south from entering the KIZ and made sure that those personnel who had already entered there went back according to their will.

After taking issue with this, the puppet group made a mockery of the DPRK, proposing dialogue without any sincere intention. In the long run, it, proposing working-level talks between the authorities, went the lengths of demanding the DPRK respond to the proposal till next morning and threatening to take "a crucial step" in case it refuses to accept the proposal.

There were many proposals for dialogue in the history of inter-Korean relations but there has never been such precedent that the present puppet group arrogantly proposed dialogue with threat of "crucial step" after setting a deadline and this is unprecedented in the history of world diplomacy either.

It is self-evident that such unheard-of strange farce is not to have dialogue with sincerity but to totally derail it.

When the DPRK took a resolute stand on the arrogant proposal for dialogue made by the puppet group, it lost no time to hold an emergency confab, as if it had been waiting for this, and went over to the next phase of bringing the KIZ to a collapse.

All facts go to clearly prove that the group's proposal for dialogue and decision to withdraw personnel are pursuant to the already worked out scenario to lead the KIZ to a collapse.

This is fully evidenced by the confession made by an official concerned of Chongwadae, when explaining the "crucial step," that it has worked out diverse scenarios against the north and is carrying them out after closely examining them.

The puppet group prattled that the step for withdrawing personnel was taken for the lack of food and materials in the KIZ but there is not lack of food and materials there in fact.

Nevertheless, the group perpetrated a provocation painting food and materials as humanitarian issues. This only indicates that it is running the whole gamut of intrigues to bring down the KIZ.

The KIZ at last ceased to operate due to the vicious moves of the group though it has been successful over the last nearly decade thanks to the compatriots' blessing and concern of the whole world. It may be completely closed any time.

The DPRK sets store by the KIZ, a product of the June 15 joint declaration, but it has no idea of continuing to confer a favor on those who abuse it, not feeling grateful to the DPRK.

The closure of the KIZ would only bring enormous losses and damage to the south side, not to the north.

On the contrary, it would create more favorable conditions for the great war for national reunification as it would be possible to reoccupy the vast area of the KIZ as a military theatre, level at Seoul at closer distance and pave a wide road for southward advance.

The DPRK does not care at all about the group's pullback of its personnel and the like.

It has never detained any of them in the KIZ but allowed them to go out of it.

It is ridiculous, indeed, for the group to try to browbeat the DPRK with such "crucial measure." One cannot but express concern over to what catastrophe the stupid and reckless confrontation maniacs will push the inter-Korean relations.

The present chief executive of south Korea, in particular, is now crying out for "the north's dismantlement of its nukes," "right option" and "change," bringing into bolder relief her confrontational intention towards the DPRK.

It is closely following whether or not the chief of Chongwadae intends to make the KIZ, the only undertaking for cooperation common to the nation, fall victim to the policy of confrontation, dancing to the tune of confrontation maniacs.

The responsibility for the total closure of the KIZ will entirely rest with the puppet group.

Rodong Sinmun

Interesting thought that Kaesong would be a very good staging area to launch a move into Seoul, given that it has a very wide paved and heavy load road straight through the DMZ. Earlier, someone had mentioned that the NK's wouldn't be so stupid as to be broadcasting their plans. I just wonder if they really are just that dumb though.

[JoeRedskin]

Love reading the 5:00 Charlie reports. So many puppets. It's like the Onion but for real.

Of course, as you pointed out earlier, the sobering fact is that, for most - if not all - North Koreans, this is the what is fed them as truth and they have no way to check it and probably have been so indoctrinated that they have no desire to do so. It is all truth to them.

I thought when the boy dictator took power that the NK situation could descend into a bad bad deal. Not quite the Balkans of the early 20th century but not all that far off either.