Griffin's impact on the off-season FA/draft

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 30gut

By the same token, why is it hard for you to understand that the Kipers and McShays of the world aren't actual scouts.
But, even if they were actual scouts doesn't mean that scouts grade are correct.
All you're doing is listening to the media scouts you like and turning a blind ear to the media scouts you don't agree with (Cosell, Hodge).
Your actually turning a blind ear to some former NFL coaches and one of most well respected GM/scouts in the league in Tony Dungy and Gil Brandt.

False media scouting can lead to the perception of certain players as 'reaches' like Jake Locker even though it much more likely that actual team scouts rated Locker as the No.2 prospect behind Cam Newton all along.
And speaking of Cam Newton, he's a prime example of how wrong media scouting can be.
The media scouts tried to sell Blaine Gabbert as the no.1 QB and did a good job of selling Newton as an unworthy no.1 overall pick.
Good thing the actual scouts for the Panthers did their homework and got it right.
And I have a hard time believing that actual team scouts would rate Andrew Luck ahead of Cam Newton.

Andrew Luck's main attribute that would make him the no.1 prospect is a coachable intangible and many GM's say you draft for tangibles.
The theory is that you can coach/teach a Griffin or a Locker or a Newton to close the gap and equal if not surpass Luck the execution of a pro-style offense (which is his cheif advantage as a prospect) but you can't coach/teach Luck to have thier elite arm strength or elite athleticism.


I believe Luck is the top prospect for many teams because he's a safer pick and teams tend to go the safer route.
But, lets not act like Griffin skillset is so far away from Luck to preclude an honest discussion about which QB is no.1

Keep in mind that McShay and Kiper, as well as many other reporters who cover the draft are asking NFL scouts who the top QB is and many are hard pressed to find anyone in the NFL that would rank RG3 over Luck.

And yes part of it is Luck is the safer pick, a big part of that is durability compared to Griffin as well as experience in a pro style offense.

However we have to remember that 80% of the time throughout his career Luck was going to the line of scrimmage with 3 plays and regularly calling audibles and protections. Griffin did some of that, but not even close to the extent that Luck did and certainly not in a pro style system. To be able to do that in college is HUGE among NFL scouts, but its something few fans seem to know.

By the way I never said there was a huge difference in talent between Luck and RG3, in fact I've gone out of my way not to make any of those sort of declarations.

They're actually relatively close in terms of how NFL scouts are grading them based on what has been reported by the media, but it appears 99% of the time Luck is that top rated prospect. Short of a major injury it's foolish to think that Griffin will overtake Luck anytime soon as the top prospect. Now he'll have probably 10 years to prove he should have been the top pick in the 2012 draft but as of April 2012 with all the games played and all the interviews conducted, it's just not going to happen.

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I promise.

I will sleep so much better tonight.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

However we have to remember that 80% of the time throughout his career Luck was going to the line of scrimmage with 3 plays and regularly calling audibles and protections. Griffin did some of that, but not even close to the extent that Luck did and certainly not in a pro style system.

Where do you get that 80% number from? If were gonna have a discussion that throws out figures we should have some source.
Because as closely as I follow college football I've never heard/read that number.
I have read that this year coach Shaw allowed Luck more freedom at the LOS then ever before.
But, that freedom isn't unique to Luck many pro-styles QBs like Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill have a LOS audible system.

To be able to do that in college is HUGE among NFL scouts, but its something few fans seem to know

I think you overstate this point in the eyes of scouts.
Sure its very impressive that Luck given and able to handle that level of control at the LOS.
But, its also important to remember that those audibles were part of a system that was taught to him.
Its not an innate part of his skillset.
Like I was saying in the previous post a common scouting mantra is: you draft for tangibles.
Luck's main advantage is an intangible skills he learned because of the system Harbaugh installed at Stanford.
One could make the argument that Harbaugh superior (NFL caliber) coaching created a situation that gave Luck equal or better coaching then he'll receive in the NFL whereas all the other prospects are going to be exposed to the best coaching of their lives.
One could also argue this situation causes Luck to be closer to his potential and therefore has a lower ceiling then other top prospects.
On the whole being more 'pro-ready' is a relatively short lived advantage it may last a few years or it might not last through training camp.

By the way I never said there was a huge difference in talent between Luck and RG3, in fact I've gone out of my way not to make any of those sort of declarations.

Then my mistake, but that is surely the implication that comes across in your posts when you attempt to shout down people who suggest that Griffin could go no.1.
If Luck and Griffin aren't far apart that why can't Griffin go no.1?

Now he'll have probably 10 years to prove he should have been the top pick in the 2012 draft but as of April 2012 with all the games played and all the interviews conducted, it's just not going to happen.

How can believe they are close as prospects and at the same time claim its impossible that Griffin is being considered for the 1st pick?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

For the millionith time Luck is the most complete and dynamic prospect since John Elway. Almost any other year Griffin would be the top QB however in terms of QB prospects (again keyword 'prospects')

Oh, btw I know Kiper keeps making the Luck/Elway comp. but can you compare them as prospects when Luck clearly lacks Elways arm talent?
Luck to me is a more athletic Matt Ryan.
If you wanna talk about over the top evaluations, you can stop at Cam Newton he's the best QB prospect I've ever seen.

BTW-
How did this thread turn into another Luck vs Griffin thread?
What of Griffin's impact on the offseason FA/draft?

If Burfict falls to the 7th round I'm drafting him all day.

[Jontrem]

Originally Posted by 30gut

If Burfict falls to the 7th round I'm drafting him all day.

i would too without a doubt. however comparisons (here and elsewhere) to Ray Lewis have got to stop, do you remember how fast Lewis was when he was in college? He was chasing down WRs back then seemed like and obviously his instincts were/are second to none.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Where do you get that 80% number from? If were gonna have a discussion that throws out figures we should have some source.
Because as closely as I follow college football I've never heard/read that number.
I have read that this year coach Shaw allowed Luck more freedom at the LOS then ever before.
But, that freedom isn't unique to Luck many pro-styles QBs like Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill have a LOS audible system.

You're not going to like the answer, but First Draft Podcast with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

I'll have to go back but they got that either from talking to the Stanford coaching staff or NFL scouts.

I think you overstate this point in the eyes of scouts.
Sure its very impressive that Luck given and able to handle that level of control at the LOS.
But, its also important to remember that those audibles were part of a system that was taught to him.
Its not an innate part of his skillset.
Like I was saying in the previous post a scouting mantra is: you draft for tangibles.
Luck's main advantage are skills he learned because of the system Harbaugh installed at Stanford.
One could make the argument that Harbaugh superior (NFL caliber) coaching created a situation that gave Luck equal or better coaching then he'll receive in the NFL whereas all the other prospects are going to be exposed to the best coaching of their lives.
One could also argue this situation causes Luck to be closer to his potential and therefore has a lower ceiling then other top prospects.
On the whole being more 'pro-ready' is a relatively short lived advantage it may last a few years or it might not last through training camp.

Part of being the better prospect on draft day is having that better floor. On top of that as stated before Griffin has torn an ACL and left a game with concussion like symptoms, Luck's only injury in college was a broken finger.

Who knows, maybe in NFL war rooms safer means better provided theres enough upside left to justify the evaluation.

Then my mistake, but that is surely the implication that comes across in your posts when you attempt to shout down people who suggest that Griffin could go no.1.

Yeah, my whole angle with being a Luck apologist came about because there were a few people on this forum talking about how they were worried the Colts were going to take Luck over Griffin.

Ironically enough I hate being a Luck apologist because a lot of the time it sounds like I'm putting down Griffin, or in some cases that I don't even think he'll be a good NFL QB and that couldn't be further from the truth.

If Luck and Griffin aren't far apart that why can't Griffin go no.1?

How can you claim there close as prospects and at the same time claim its impossible that Griffin is being considered for the 1st pick?

He could but everything I've heard and read suggest that virtually every scout has Luck as the undisputed number 1 prospect on the board. I'm not making my own judgement as an armchair scout, it's just that I can't find many places besides shock jocks that say Griffin over Luck. Greg Cossell is the most respectable opinion I can find on record that says Griffin is a better prospect then Luck, other then that it's slim pickins.

This segment from an article on SBNation basically sums up my opinion.

Yes, Andrew Luck Is Still A Better QB Prospect Than Robert Griffin III - Stampede Blue

Andrew Luck has been the de facto No. 1 overall pick since December of 2009. It's just a boring, uncompelling fact. The Panthers would have taken him No. 1 overall last year over Cam Newton (yes, they would have Panthers fans), and if the Redskins had the No. 1 pick over the Colts this year, they too would take Luck. There's a reason that pretty much every scout and talent evaluation expert says Luck is No. 1:

[30gut]

These aren't some unknown scouts telling Kiper and McShay these are actual NFL decision makers.

There are others but when it comes to credibility does it get any better then Gil Brandt?

Originally Posted by Gil Brandt

The workout that Robert Griffin III had Wednesday at Baylor was outstanding. I’m not sure whether he or Andrew Luck should be the No. 1 overall draft pick.

How about the guy that actually coached and won a superbowl w/ Peyton Manning? (btw did you know that Dungy was a college QB?)

Dungy, though, thinks RGIII, the Heisman Trophy winner from Baylor who has yet to announce his draft plans, brings more to the game. On Dan Patrick’s radio show, he said he is “not sure you have to have the can't-miss guy.” He admits he’d take Aaron Rodgers over Tom Brady and Drew Brees because of “the pressure he puts on defenses with his running ability.”
“I like those mobile guys,” Dungy told Patrick, saying he thinks they supply an “extra dimension....they are intriguing to me...I like Robert Griffin.”

Tony Dungy would take Robert Griffin III over Andrew Luck - The Early Lead - The Washington Post

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 30gut

These aren't some unknown scouts telling Kiper and McShay these are actual NFL decision makers.

There are others but when it comes to credibility does it get any better then Gil Brandt?




How about the guy that actually coached and won a superbowl w/ Peyton Manning? (btw did you know that Dungy was a college QB?)


Tony Dungy would take Robert Griffin III over Andrew Luck - The Early Lead - The Washington Post

Well technically Brandt didn't say Griffin over Luck, he just alluded to it, and to make such a declaration due to a workout, especially the day before Lucks workout would undermine his credibility.

Dungy, I give you Dungy, that certainly counts as a respectable opinion but for the sake of this debate I'm going to play my "Dungy is a defensive guy" card.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Well technically Brandt didn't say Griffin over Luck, he just alluded to it, and to make such a declaration due to a workout, especially the day before Lucks workout would undermine his credibility.

Dungy, I give you Dungy, that certainly counts as a respectable opinion but for the sake of this debate I'm going to play my "Dungy is a defensive guy" card.

My point was never that Griffin should be taken over Luck that was the point you were arguing against.
My argument is that its a legitimate question.

And taking a pot shot at Gil Brandt's credibility? Tisk, tisk.
The man has forgotten more about football then most scouts/GMs out there he's one of the more universally respected people in scouting.

Re: Dungy being a defensive coach
I think were above being argumentative?
But, Dungy having actually played college QB himself and coaching Peyton Manning and being a former DC that actually games plan against these QBs has to count more in his favor then against it.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

30 did you say Cam Newton was the best QB prospect you've ever seen?

[SFREDSKIN]

I've watched Luck the last 3 years and yes, he's as good as advertised and getting better. RGIII had a great year this year before that he was good. Bottom line Luck will be a great pro as will RGIII, Luck has more experience in a pro style which puts him ahead of Griffin. Griffin is a better athlete by not much, is very smart but lacks the experience. Both will be great and I would be very, very happy with either. People need to relax and be happy we are in the position to draft either one of these great prospects.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

30 did you say Cam Newton was the best QB prospect you've ever seen?

Yes, and its not due to hindsight bias from having watched Newton's rookie year.
I thought Newton was a better prospect then Luck prior to Cam's rookie year.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

I've watched Luck the last 3 years and yes, he's as good as advertised and getting better. RGIII had a great year this year before that he was good. Bottom line Luck will be a great pro as will RGIII, Luck has more experience in a pro style which puts him ahead of Griffin. Griffin is a better athlete by not much, is very smart but lacks the experience. Both will be great and I would be very, very happy with either. People need to relax and be happy we are in the position to draft either one of these great prospects.

Although I have my preference for Robert Griffin III, I'm with you. I wouldn't mind drafting Andrew Luck either. I saw both of these young men play last year and they both were the best in the nation playing the quarterback position. Jim Irsay has a decision to make. If he opts to take RG3 then I'll be disappointed, but I'll also be very elated for the Redskins to land the young quarterback out of Stanford.

[30gut]

Good news for the OL watchers:

Bryan Brackney ‏ @bryanbrackney
Demetrius Bell has narrowed his choices between the Redskins and Bills.

Bryan Brackney ‏ @bryanbrackney
@TimAdams_Skins1 Redskins (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...tXHS_blog.html) and Bills (Redirect Notice). Cardinals have dropped out after re-signing LT L. Brown

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

I don't see how you can look at pre-draft Luck vs. Newton and say Newton is superior but to each his own. I will say I think RG3 vs "Killa" Cam will be a next generation QB rivalry a la Manning vs Brady.