NFL conference championship weekend

[punch it in]

The True Stats Of NFL Overtime
Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
There have been 15 ties (4.6%).
It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

[jamf]

Originally Posted by punch it in

The True Stats Of NFL Overtime
Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
There have been 15 ties (4.6%).
It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

Before 2012, a FG would end the game.
Check out the numbers since the TD overtime rule was implemented
https://mobile.twitter.com/SandoESPN...45109874298881

[mooby]

Yeah why you are trotting out outdated stats Punch? First score wins was one-sided as fuck.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Not saying it is the end all be all. But why not make a stupid coin toss absolutely meaningless and just give both teams a chance to score a TD?

I’m actually fine with that for playoffs OT

I just don’t think it’s a pressing issue that is dying to be changed this red hot minute



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[punch it in]

Originally Posted by mooby

Yeah why you are trotting out outdated stats Punch? First score wins was one-sided as fuck.

The article was dated 2014, and regardless it is about the coin toss not being meaningless. If anything is outdated it is the 52% stat.
Also I do think this is better than the first “score”/fg wins it but i think it could be better yet.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by jamf

It sounds like people just want a skills competition between Brady and Mahomes instead of a football game.

The Chiefs D gave up 3 TDs to the Patriots in the final 3 drives.
Do we really need to see more of that?

Not only that but on the final drive the Pats converted 3 3rd downs. It was like a heavyweight fight and KC's defense just took too many body blows. You're not winning or going to a Super Bowl with the 31st ranked D.

[CRedskinsRule]

For me I like the sudden death nature of nfl OT. It was bad when a FG could end it on the first possession' but I like the way it is now any great play by the offense, defense, or ST play can win or lose the game.

[MTK]

So a few people including Kevin Sheehan have crunched the numbers and apparently it’s about 19% of the time since 2012 where the team that wins the coin flip drives down the field and scores a TD and ends the game without the other team touching the ball.

/discussion



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[mooby]

Originally Posted by MTK

So a few people including Kevin Sheehan have crunched the numbers and apparently it’s about 19% of the time since 2012 where the team that wins the coin flip drives down the field and scores a TD and ends the game without the other team touching the ball.

/discussion



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19%???????

This shit is rigged!!!!!!!!

[DYoungJelly]

Originally Posted by punch it in

The True Stats Of NFL Overtime
Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
There have been 15 ties (4.6%).
It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

Kevin Sheehan just said on today's podcast that since the rule change only 19.7% of games which went to overtime were won or lost on the first possession by a TD score.

The team that wins the toss does win 52% of the games but how does that matter if both teams get to possess the ball on 80.3% of overtime games?

I just don't think this is a big deal.

A coin toss didn't decide the game, KC's bottom of the barrel defense did.

There were three 3rd and 10s and Brady converted.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by MTK

So a few people including Kevin Sheehan have crunched the numbers and apparently it’s about 19% of the time since 2012 where the team that wins the coin flip drives down the field and scores a TD and ends the game without the other team touching the ball.

/discussion



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But still wins 52% of the time because they will get two possessions as opposed to one. Discussion on.

Plenty of people out there that would like to see each team get the ball until one of them scores more than the other in a set of possessions. Im just the only one on the WP. Lol.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by DYoungJelly

Kevin Sheehan just said on today's podcast that since the rule change only 19.7% of games which went to overtime were won or lost on the first possession by a TD score.



The team that wins the toss does win 52% of the games but how does that matter if both teams get to possess the ball on 80.3% of overtime games?



I just don't think this is a big deal.



A coin toss didn't decide the game, KC's bottom of the barrel defense did.



There were three 3rd and 10s and Brady converted.



We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

It matters because one team is getting two chances while the other gets one.

[punch it in]

I don’t think it is the most dire emergency in sports rules history. Trust me. Lol. It just seems so painfully obvious too me that the only fair way too settle the game is on a level playing field. Each team gets the ball until one out duels the other.
As for all these statistics - im sure they are skewed by a million other factors.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by punch it in

It matters because one team is getting two chances while the other gets one.

Christ dude why don’t we just guarantee both teams the same exact number of snaps per game so it’s truly fair. This has officially gone off the rails.



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[punch it in]

Originally Posted by MTK

Christ dude why don’t we just guarantee both teams the same exact number of snaps per game so it’s truly fair. This has officially gone off the rails.



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No need to get sarcastic. Lol. It isn’t as if there isn’t a thing called the NCAA that has OT rules just like it. Only they make it corny with starting on the 30 or whatever.
Again in Tennis let’s just flip a coin to see who serves first. They win the game it is over. Lets end a baseball game in extra innings if the first team to bat hits a home run. Hey ya gotta be able to pitch right?