What will your reaction be to: "With the 6th Selection, The Redskins pick...

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't see what makes Calvin Johnson different from Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, Charles Rogers, even Mike Williams in 2004, or any other of the receivers who were destined to "revolutionize" the game. Scouts salivated immensely over all these prospects. Two of those picks were complete busts, one the jury is still out on, and the two perennial probowlers havent won jack in this league.

Who can blame them? They are receivers--which means their outcome on a game is minimal. Not a good way to build an offense.

So why would taking Calvin Johnson in the top 10 be smart? If he fufills his potential, he helps his team marginally. If he doesn't then he is a completely wasted pick. The risk vs reward phenomenon begs teams to not take a WR in the top 10.

What's it about CJ that is so special that this league has never seen before?

But, on the other hand, all of this could mean that the league is due for a phenom wideout in the draft.

QB/WR chemistry is so hard to come by... that's why the Colts opted to keep Reggie Wayne instead of Edge. Campbell has to have some consistency with his wideouts. If Lloyd hasn't gotten on the same page by the 4th or 5th game of the season -- assuming Campbell is the real deal -- then Lloyd's gone. Throwing Calvin Johnson into the mix probably won't pay dividends for a few seasons, so you'd have to pass especially given the gaping holes we have on defense.

Oh, and for all of the Golston-lovers, settle down. The guy is in the #3 rotation spot, and to expect anything more out of him would be a serious overestimation of his abilities.

Griffin and Salave'a are all but done. Draft Alan Branch.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't see what makes Calvin Johnson different from Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, Charles Rogers, even Mike Williams in 2004, or any other of the receivers who were destined to "revolutionize" the game. Scouts salivated immensely over all these prospects. Two of those picks were complete busts, one the jury is still out on, and the two perennial probowlers havent won jack in this league.

Who can blame them? They are receivers--which means their outcome on a game is minimal. Not a good way to build an offense.

So why would taking Calvin Johnson in the top 10 be smart? If he fufills his potential, he helps his team marginally. If he doesn't then he is a completely wasted pick. The risk vs reward phenomenon begs teams to not take a WR in the top 10.

What's it about CJ that is so special that this league has never seen before?

by stats, you'd never take a WR in the first round. or a running back. but look at LT, look at how productive randy moss was for minnesota. some players are better than good. fitz wasn't nearly as highly regarded, though he was a safe pick. mike williams is a joke, he ran a 4.6 and he's extremely lazy. should i show you the list of busts at DL? 50% of DEs in the top 10 are busts, so what makes that any safer? would they not be a "marginal" improvement over what we have in the same way as CJ would be a "marginal" improvement over lloyd or randle el?

their outcome on a game is minimal? should teams ONLY draft QBs in the first round then? come on.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by That Guy

by stats, you'd never take a WR in the first round. or a running back. but look at LT, look at how productive randy moss was for minnesota. some players are better than good. fitz wasn't nearly as highly regarded, though he was a safe pick. mike williams is a joke, he ran a 4.6 and he's extremely lazy. should i show you the list of busts at DL? 50% of DEs in the top 10 are busts, so what makes that any safer? would they not be a "marginal" improvement over what we have in the same way as CJ would be a "marginal" improvement over lloyd or randle el?

their outcome on a game is minimal? should teams ONLY draft QBs in the first round then? come on.

I never said anything about "making the safe pick". I was talking purely about positional value. For wide receivers, there is NO benefit to taking one in the top 10 as opposed to between 11-20. None. On top of this, the positional value of a WR is lower than any other player on the offense, and arguably all of the defense also. It's the only position on the field that will be a realtive non factor on more than 1/3 of offensive plays.

Calvin Johnson is (presumably) a far better receiver than Randle El or Lloyd. But are we a better offense with Johnson starting instead of Randle El. Yes, but only by a very very slim margin. There just isn't much significance in the position.

Conversely, if we were to replace Saleve'a with Branch (assuming of course that Branch will be a dominant player just as we presumed Johnson would be), the defense will be SIGNIFICANTLY stronger vs the run. The team would be much better off.

That's positional value. I don't think any position is "safer" than another position. I think that (4 year starting) seniors are always safer picks than underclassmen, simply because there is so much film on them. If a senior has bust potential, surely there will be red flags that scouts will find. If an underclassman has bust potential, there might not be adequate film on him, and some red flags may sneak beneath the scouts observations. I don't think Larry Fitzgerald was a safe pick though. He came out of school early, and thats never a "safe" thing. I remember him being regarded as the "best player in college football," and he was the 3rd pick--so don't say he wasn't highly regarded.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

For wide receivers, there is NO benefit to taking one in the top 10 as opposed to between 11-20. None. On top of this, the positional value of a WR is lower than any other player on the offense, and arguably all of the defense also. It's the only position on the field that will be a realtive non factor on more than 1/3 of offensive plays.

Supposing that Calvin Johnson is the next Jerry Rice, would you still stand by the above statements? There's no doubt a DT is worth more to OUR team than a WR, but that's not going to be true for a team with a good D-line and a poor WR-corps.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I never said anything about "making the safe pick". I was talking purely about positional value. For wide receivers, there is NO benefit to taking one in the top 10 as opposed to between 11-20. None. On top of this, the positional value of a WR is lower than any other player on the offense, and arguably all of the defense also. It's the only position on the field that will be a realtive non factor on more than 1/3 of offensive plays.

Calvin Johnson is (presumably) a far better receiver than Randle El or Lloyd. But are we a better offense with Johnson starting instead of Randle El. Yes, but only by a very very slim margin. There just isn't much significance in the position.

Conversely, if we were to replace Saleve'a with Branch (assuming of course that Branch will be a dominant player just as we presumed Johnson would be), the defense will be SIGNIFICANTLY stronger vs the run. The team would be much better off.

That's positional value. I don't think any position is "safer" than another position. I think that (4 year starting) seniors are always safer picks than underclassmen, simply because there is so much film on them. If a senior has bust potential, surely there will be red flags that scouts will find. If an underclassman has bust potential, there might not be adequate film on him, and some red flags may sneak beneath the scouts observations. I don't think Larry Fitzgerald was a safe pick though. He came out of school early, and thats never a "safe" thing. I remember him being regarded as the "best player in college football," and he was the 3rd pick--so don't say he wasn't highly regarded.

first, adding 800 more yards in passing offense, and another 100 running offense (cause he blocks much better than any WR we have) is a huge improvement. Maybe as much so as the couple hundred fewer yards branch would prevent. Just cause you think you can arbitrarily assign positional values on complete unknowns doesn't make it fact :P

and there is benefit in taking a WR in the top 10 if he'd be gone by pick 12 or 13 and ends up in the HoF. so saying there's no benefit is just crap. fitz was a fairly safe pick, and i didn't say he wasn't highly regarded, i said he wasn't as highly regarded as CJ on draft day.

[12thMan]

If Calvin slips to six, you have to keep him. First round, you have to take the best player on the board.

Pound for pound, can anyone argue that he's the best player in the top ten?

[EXoffender]

I'd be cool with any of these guys. I haven't seen Jamal Anderson at the combine (NFL Network) but, he has awesome size for a DE. Not sure if any of these DTs are a cut above the rest entering the draft. We need more 'hold' on the the DL. Calvin Johnson still available at #6 would be a heart attack.

[SmootSmack]

A lot of fans don’t believe in what the Redskins have done personnel wise. If they draft CJ, I think it will be an indication the Redskins don’t believe it either. At some point, they have to stand up for their decisions and show some faith in them. Over the last two years, they invested money and picks in Lloyd, El, and Moss to be their receivers; all while they groomed Campbell to be the man at QB for them. Well, let these guys play together now.

Focus on the D-Line.

Branch: Awesome. He’ll make everyone better right away

Anderson: Hell of a talent but I could see a Rocky in ’06 like season where he’s sitting on the bench while the staff figures out exactly where to play him

Adams: Are we switching to the 3-4 now? Golston better be beast in ‘07

[Bill B]

I'd love for the Skins to take Branch, than Anderson, than Adams.

What is interesting is what has happened to Leon Hall from Michigan? I can remember not too long ago that a lot of mock drafts had the Skins taking Hall with their pick. Has Hall fallen that hard because of those last two games where a lot of draft "experts" say he was exposed and they also think he has a slow 40 time?

[EXoffender]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

A lot of fans don’t believe in what the Redskins have done personnel wise. If they draft CJ, I think it will be an indication the Redskins don’t believe it either. At some point, they have to stand up for their decisions and show some faith in them. Over the last two years, they invested money and picks in Lloyd, El, and Moss to be their receivers; all while they groomed Campbell to be the man at QB for them. Well, let these guys play together now...

Lloyd didn't get it done last year and if I'm not mistaken, Randle El was starting in front of him as the season ended. Lloyd seems to have a problem locating the ball once it's thrown.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EXoffender

Lloyd didn't get it done last year and if I'm not mistaken, Randle El was starting in front of him as the season ended. Lloyd seems to have a problem locating the ball once it's thrown.

The difference between Lloyd and Randle El purely as wideouts is negigible. Neither is very good.

Where my opinion differs on the two is in the things that each receiver brings to the table other than being a wide receiver. Randle El is a heady player, a good blocker for his size, smart after the catch, understands the position from the QB perspective (which helps in blitz reading and whatnot), can run with the ball on reverses and throw it to keep defenses off balance, is a top notch punt returner, and in a pinch can run down on teams and hit someone. Basically he's the kind of player who maximizes the roster spot given to a wide receiver. He's the kind of player you want on the field as much as possible despite his shortcomings as a wideout.

Lloyd can't do any of that. Lloyd made a rep based off highlight reel catches in single coverage or while wide open. And although the value of that ability isn't to be understated, neither should it be overstated. How many plays in Saunders' playbook call for the QB to blindly throw a ball into coverage so that Lloyd can make the sportscenter highlight reel? No good ones, that's for sure. Lloyd isn't a good route runner, he drops the ball far too often, and isn't keen on going over the middle.

If cost and reputation were not a factor in roster building, Lloyd wouldn't make a 53 man roster. Every team in the league has at least 2 WRs better than him, and every receiver that doesn't start in this league plays teams.

Except Lloyd.

Randle El may not be a great WR, but he deserves a roster spot for sure. Lloyd doesn't. I just don't get the trade for him, he's just not a traditional Gibbs' sort of guy.

[JGisLordOfTheRings]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

A lot of fans don’t believe in what the Redskins have done personnel wise. If they draft CJ, I think it will be an indication the Redskins don’t believe it either. At some point, they have to stand up for their decisions and show some faith in them. Over the last two years, they invested money and picks in Lloyd, El, and Moss to be their receivers; all while they groomed Campbell to be the man at QB for them. Well, let these guys play together now.

Focus on the D-Line.

Branch: Awesome. He’ll make everyone better right away

Anderson: Hell of a talent but I could see a Rocky in ’06 like season where he’s sitting on the bench while the staff figures out exactly where to play him

Adams: Are we switching to the 3-4 now? Golston better be beast in ‘07

I heart this thread and this comment.

Shows the ones who "know" the most, know nothing. All hail Schneed30, no offense, smartest guy on this board.

Hail.

[MTK]

If CJ falls to #6, I would most definitely trade down.

[EXoffender]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

If CJ falls to #6, I would most definitely trade down.

I'd be happy either way.

[EXoffender]

I'm still OK with the interior of our DL. Branch seems likes he could make the biggest impact but, that means sitting Golston, who has some upside. I badly want Daniels replaced (Jamal Anderson) even if his stats are better than everyone else's.

Excuse me if I'm hallucinating. I believe I saw Gibbs standing in the endzone alongside Greg Williams at the combine. They were paying very close attention to the DL prospects.