Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

[GMScud]

I think this is a great move. First of all, it sends a message to Russell - don't think you're the one and only. Secondly, Culpepper is only 30 and nearly 2 years removed from that injury. He still has a great NFL body and a missle launcher for an arm, plus plenty of experience. It's also low-risk for Oakland- 1 year deal, not a lot of money, why not? If he works out they got a great bargain. If McGahee can recover from his shredded knee and become an elite RB anyway, why can't Daunte return to form? If he does he probably has 4-5 very good years left in him.They are coming off one of the most miserable offensive seasons EVER, can't hurt to bring in a guy 2 seasons removed from throwing 39 TDs. He's got a career passer rating of 91 as well. Good job Oakland, IMO.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by GMScud

I think this is a great move. First of all, it sends a message to Russell - don't think you're the one and only. Secondly, Culpepper is only 30 and nearly 2 years removed from that injury. He still has a great NFL body and a missle launcher for an arm, plus plenty of experience.

You weren't paying attention last year, were you?

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Buster

You weren't paying attention last year, were you?

But last year he was clearly not healthy. He came back way to early - only like 9 months after a ripping all 3 major knee ligaments. He has had plenty of time to get right. I like Culpepper. I wish him well.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by GMScud

But last year he was clearly not healthy. He came back way to early - only like 9 months after a ripping all 3 major knee ligaments. He has had plenty of time to get right. I like Culpepper. I wish him well.

When he stepped onto the field last year, he already had enough recovery time. This is my point, his knee is done and so is his career.

I don't wish anything bad on him, I'm just being realistic.

[skinsfan_nn]

Good for the traiders....they still have nothing! Do you think Miami would have dumped DC after 1 aweful and costly season and then sign TG if they thought they had anything in DC, of course not.

DC is very fragile, they better get russell signed. They are gonna need him.

[Luxorreb]

Smart move by Raiders. Don't know if it'll work out for Culpepper. Culpepper has lotsa time left in the NFL barring a major setback. He's big, tough and got a power arm. Lacks accuracy and a good team AGAIN in Oakland... Wasn't the guy born in prison?

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Luxorreb

Wasn't the guy born in prison?

If so, he'll feel right at home in Oakland.

[Schneed10]

I think, if healthy, Culpepper can still be a very good QB in this league. But the problem is he's playing behind this Raiders offensive line, in a brand new system, with brand new teammates, for only a one-year deal. Clearly JaMarcus Russell is the future of the team. So Culpepper is stuck keeping the seat warm for him.

I don't like Duante's chances of doing well this year, even if he's fully healthy. He didn't spend any offseason time with his teammates or with the team's playbook. He's coming in to Oakland and has to learn a totally new system. Oakland's WRs are pretty much garbage, and you have to wonder if their running game will be any better. The only thing they have going for them is their defense, but that can't help Culpepper in what amounts to a one-season audition for his NFL future elsewhere.

[GTripp0012]

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

Yeah they probably would be, simply because there's nowhere to go but up. Defensively, you could say the opposite. There's more room for a backslide than there is for an improvement.

But really, I was intending to say that '04 Culpepper's points over replacement isn't entirely attributable to his amazing skill. He had a lot of factors working for him that can't be separated from the points over replacement calculations; a much better offensive line than the Raiders have, a much better receiving corps than the Raiders have (Wiggins was a great safety valve, Moss was a great deep threat, and Burleson was a mix of both), and a scheme that Culpepper was comfortable with.

In other words, I don't think any points over replacement calculations are applicable here to the Raiders. Because the only way '07 Culpepper can look like '04 Culpepper is if he gets the blocking that '04 Culpepper had, gets the WRs that '04 Culpepper had, and learns the scheme as intimately as '04 Culpepper did.

In sum, I think Culpepper is a really, really good QB. But he's in a situation where he can't possibly look any better than ordinary, IMO.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Very good post.
However, I will point out, that WR's / TE's and of course your line, do indeed make the difference in those numbers. Oakland does not have a good DL, nor WR's, nor TE's. While Culpepper has a great amount of talent, and I do think he can return to form, I don't think he'll do it in Oakland. The sub par team will take him down with them.
I said it before, I thought Culpepper was dumb for signing with Oakland, he needs to show the world what he can do. In Oakland he will be the lone star. I wish him luck, but I am not expecting him to have numbers that reflect his talent this year.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Chris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Cris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

I honestly don't know why people say this like it's a fact.
Fact is, during Culpepper's best season (04), there was no Chris Carter, and Moss was 3rd on the team in receptions (almost 4th since Robinson had 2 fewer receptions). Nate Burlson was his favorite target that season.
Granted Moss missed 3 games, but Culpepper spread it around to others including Jermaine Wiggins who led the team with 71 receptions.

ps- Cris Carter in his prime????? 2 years at the end of his career you call in his prime? Culpepper had him in 2000 and 2001 (although only for 11 games in 01). There is no doubt that Moss and Carter were a great combo, but fact is, Culpepper has shown himself to be a great QB without heavily relying on either of them. We are so quick to dismiss his stats with comments like Moss and Carter, but again I say, look at his 04 numbers, one of the greatest qb seasons EVER and Moss was not his #1 wr.