Eight Long Years: Where Is Osama Bin Laden?

[budw38]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Everyone has brought up good points. Essentially it all comes down to oil. The region (Afghanistan is a good example) is simply an unstable region. Very factional and culturally difficult to control. We only care about the region because of oil, they only dislike us because of things we have done because of oil, we're only there because of oil. It all comes back to oil. It is why the energy policy of our nation is of such importance. Forget all the crunchy-granola peace-pipe propaganda about the climate...plain and simple oil is going to put our country in its grave if we don't figure out how to not need it.

As for Afghanistan, the biggest mistake that's been made, and the same error made in Iraq, was the definition of our goals. Dumdum Bush and his administration had this ridiculous notion that they could sell a war in the middle east as a simple national security issue.One that could be solved via toppling of a few despots in the region and some mild rebuilding. Voila! Stability. In fact the stability of the region, by our definition and for our own benefit, will only come from a protracted presence of our own troops. This has always been the case. There never was a magic bullet strategy for going in, doing the job and getting out. The JOB is to be there. Removing the Taliban was th easy excuse but ultimately bullcrap. It was simply step one in a decades long list of things we need to do there. That's what we committed ourselves to with the first bullet. Decades. Most Americans didn't know this but our politicians, Dems and Reps both, sure knew it. And if there were a few that didn't then they're dumdum donkey idiots. If we're going to be there, and we can't leave, then we need to send every single troop that's needed. I'd rather we send an extra 40k, 100k or a million if we had it and cut down the casualties. Otherwise we're stuck executing Rumsfeld's ill-fated strategy of light and fast which as we've found out actually means half-assed and dangerously.

How much oil is in Afganistan ? If we only cared for oil , why haven't we stopped supporting Isreal , if we let the Islamic countries in that region destroy Isreal we would have $ 10 barrels of oil . So by your account , even if AL Qaeda / Bin Laden run terror camps out of New Zealand , Bush would have set our troops to Afgan'st ? We were in Iraq / Kuwait in 1991 , how much oil have we taken in almost 20 years ? I'm not saying oil , like any commodity does not have an effect on policy , but in this case I think thats a stretch . After 9-11 , are you suggesting we should have done nothing , thinking they would not try a more deadly attack , just asking ?

[firstdown]

Well I say its more of a fight of power then oil. If we sat back and let nations like China or Russia gain too much control of the oil then we are in deap shit. We can come up with all the clean energy we want (which does help) but we cannot protect ourself with out oil. I can't see troops stopping to plug in their tanks before advancing.

[budw38]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well I say its more of a fight of power then oil. If we sat back and let nations like China or Russia gain too much control of the oil then we are in deap shit. We can come up with all the clean energy we want (which does help) but we cannot protect ourself with out oil. I can't see troops stopping to plug in their tanks before advancing.

Are you trying to say we can't put solar panels on a tank and power it ? Guys , not to change the subject , but don't be shocked if the day comes where wars are fought over water .... just saying

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by budw38

How much oil is in Afganistan ? If we only cared for oil , why haven't we stopped supporting Isreal , if we let the Islamic countries in that region destroy Isreal we would have $ 10 barrels of oil . So by your account , even if AL Qaeda / Bin Laden run terror camps out of New Zealand , Bush would have set our troops to Afgan'st ? We were in Iraq / Kuwait in 1991 , how much oil have we taken in almost 20 years ? I'm not saying oil , like any commodity does not have an effect on policy , but in this case I think thats a stretch . After 9-11 , are you suggesting we should have done nothing , thinking they would not try a more deadly attack , just asking ?

There were several gas lines scheduled to run through Afghanistan. Central Asia is the big up and coming spot for oil and natural gas.

Fire Plug seems to be on a somewhat similar understanding of what I and many others have said. It's not just about oil. It's about de-balling the new up and coming threat, China.

Israel isn't important. Why our government supports them is beyond me? The cynical part of me says Jewish votes. I'm no expert? I have no opinion on the matter. I'd rather be tighter with Egypt and Turkey. They probably already have nukes too.

I don't believe what the politicians say, only what they do. There isn't much of a difference in policy regarding oil as a weapon since it was discovered. We control the price and distribution, we win.

What is being done to China now is what was done to Russia in reverse. Russia decided it was more profitable to play on the side of the big dogs. When gasoline goes up to 4$ dollars a gallon the Russians smile and the Chinese cringe.

I don't buy this war on terrorism garbage anymore. If we wanted the Taliban dead, they'd be dead. If Pakistan wanted them dead, they'd be dead. We're being fed sound bites that nice little girls and boys can get behind. The big boys know better.

Consider this: Chinese currency is valued based off of the dollar. They devalue their currency to make their imports cheap. The spend twice as much for oil. The price of oil is based on dollars. The reserve currency of the world is American dollars. Our major allies and proxies are oil rich: Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Canada, Russia, Kuwait, and a myriad of others. China has next to nothing in oil. Chinese oil infrastucture is inferior. It takes more oil for them to produce energy and they have a hard time burning high sulfur oil. They have to buy light sweet.

This is how nuclear armed superpowers fight, through proxies. It's no different than when we fought the Russians. We never went toe to toe. We faught their proxies: N.Korea, China (not yet a nuclear power), Vietnam, FMLN, Cuba, and all the others we never heard of.

[budw38]

Trample i agree with most of your points . Of course we are not fighting an Army in Afganistan < like we did in WW2 > . We could destroy the Taliban/ al qaeda if we destroyed the country , massive bombing , which would result in mass civilian deaths . I think that is the main reason they have not been put out of commision . We are not at war with a country , but a movement < ideology > , where the enemy is global . Not disputing what you said . I guess I look at the Oil part this way , if we wanted to , we could have taken it from Kuwait and Iraq in 91 if . Isreal , I'm just making a point , if we had stopped supporting Isreal ... say in 1972 , the Arab nations that make up OPEC would have no reason to hate us , thus making them willing to trade /sell oil at lower levels . I would almost be in favor of hitting the middle east with nukes like we did Japan , but I would rather not . As far as Nat. Gas , we have plenty , and I think Russia supplies Europe Nat. Gas , as Russia has a vast suppy . If you and some of the others are correct , Brazil better become our friends or they might be at war with us next ...http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/19/wo...braziloil.html as they have ... maybe larger oil fields than Saudia Arabia Petrobras' Tupi Oil Field May Hold 8 Billion Barrels (Update6) - Bloomberg.com

[70Chip]

Originally Posted by Trample the Elderly

Israel isn't important. Why our government supports them is beyond me? The cynical part of me says Jewish votes. I'm no expert? I have no opinion on the matter. I'd rather be tighter with Egypt and Turkey. They probably already have nukes too.

I think we will find out in the next few years that Israel is extremely important. And I suspect that a good many things are "beyond you." Unfortunately, you still bloviate about them, and at length.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by budw38

How much oil is in Afganistan ? If we only cared for oil , why haven't we stopped supporting Isreal , if we let the Islamic countries in that region destroy Isreal we would have $ 10 barrels of oil . So by your account , even if AL Qaeda / Bin Laden run terror camps out of New Zealand , Bush would have set our troops to Afgan'st ? We were in Iraq / Kuwait in 1991 , how much oil have we taken in almost 20 years ? I'm not saying oil , like any commodity does not have an effect on policy , but in this case I think thats a stretch . After 9-11 , are you suggesting we should have done nothing , thinking they would not try a more deadly attack , just asking ?

We can't just care about the oil countries. The entire region has to be minded for the sake o our oil. Don't confuse me with a peacenik no more war or oil type. I am simply pointing out the obvious. We do next to nothing in Africa when tribal wars erupt and millions die...they have no oil. The middle east though of course does and we're constantly embattled there now.

[djnemo65]

Afghanistan has no significant oil, or any natural resources other than smack, and our presence over there is not related to procuring oil or anything else. Had they not attacked us on 9/11 we would not have invaded (as opposed to Iraq, the plans for the occupation of which go back to the Clinton administration). Although FRPLG is partly right when he says that we made a commitment to staying there upon the firing of the first shot. That is not necessarily true, but if we are to see the mission through to its conclusion - which at this point I understand to be the emergence of a stable functioning democracy - it will take several years (decades even) and several hundred thousand more troops. Indeed, current counterinsurgency theory suggests that 1 soldier is needed for every 50 civilians in order to successfully pacify a population, which would put our troop requirement there at well north of 500 thousand. Given that the political will doesn’t exist for that kind of commitment, a much more protracted, and probably ineffective American presence there is likely.

But let's talk about what this war is really about. It's certainly not about oil. We'd get about as much oil invading the Bahamas, and I don't buy the leftist conspiracy theories that the war is about protecting pipelines either. That makes no sense. You don't spend billions and billions in resources to preserve what amounts to a drop in the bucket of the global oil supply. But it's not about Bin Laden either, who as 12th pointed out, probably isn't even in the country any more, and at this point is nothing more than a figurehead within Al Qaeda.

It's about that nuclear armed behemoth to the south, whose crippled government is hanging by a thread with an internal insurgency miles from the capital and ready to step on its throat. Were Afghanistan to destabilize, or were its radical Islamist forces left without anyone to fight, they would be sure to further destabilize Pakistan in turn. We can't have this. Moreover, by building a permanent American military presence over there, as we are currently doing, we give ourselves access to Pakistan should things take a turn for the worse.

I have to believe everything else is peripheral at this point. So in answer to the question, who cares. Killing Obama would be a huge story in America's dumbed down sound bite culture, but it wouldn't amount to a damn thing.

[saden1]

The shortest distance between two points is a straight line and having control of those lines. Don't be fooled, Afghanistan is a major player in oil and gas transport.

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

I think we will find out in the next few years that Israel is extremely important. And I suspect that a good many things are "beyond you." Unfortunately, you still bloviate about them, and at length.

Please enlighten me what is so important about Isreal? Bloviate? Perhaps you would be so good as to offer counter points?

[saden1]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

I think we will find out in the next few years that Israel is extremely important. And I suspect that a good many things are "beyond you." Unfortunately, you still bloviate about them, and at length.

Lord knows I'm no fan of TTL but on this one his take is more rational than yours. Don't hold your breath, the rapture won't be coming any time soon.

[budw38]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

We can't just care about the oil countries. The entire region has to be minded for the sake o our oil. Don't confuse me with a peacenik no more war or oil type. I am simply pointing out the obvious. We do next to nothing in Africa when tribal wars erupt and millions die...they have no oil. The middle east though of course does and we're constantly embattled there now.

I don't disagree with your points , nor would I judge you< as peacenik >, or anything else . As far as tribal wars in Africa , again you are correct , but I suspect if Sudan or Somalia were to be the stomping ground for Bin Laden we would have gone there ? Nice post ,,, have a good night .

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by saden1

The shortest distance between two points is a straight line and having control of those lines. Don't be fooled, Afghanistan is a major player in oil and gas transport.

Thank you Saden. You may be arrogant but at least you're not stupid.

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by budw38

I don't disagree with your points , nor would I judge you< as peacenik >, or anything else . As far as tribal wars in Africa , again you are correct , but I suspect if Sudan or Somalia were to be the stomping ground for Bin Laden we would have gone there ? Nice post ,,, have a good night .

Don't forget Nigeria and Executive Outcomes.

[budw38]

Nice post DJ65 . Not sure about dumbed down culture . We all know that just killing one man is not the end of a war /movement or jihad . Truth is Bin laden is a recuiter , hero and god to many in the middle east , I do hope we kill him , and wouldn't lose sleep in we took Chavez , Akmandingleberryzahd < Iran > out in the middle of the night .