North Korea's Kim Jong II Pushing Up Daisies

[JoeRedskin]

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Jong-un is 28. While, historically, many dictators have held the reigns of power at a young age, I foresee no genius in Jong-un that would allow him to remain in power. I expect that more experienced party members will use him/undermine him as they attempt to increase their own power. Within a year or two, N. Korea will be a very unstable place. An unstable place with nuclear weapons.

The only reason we will miss Jong-il is that he was the evil we knew. In a few years, N. Korea will be the evil we don't know.

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

That's what I'm sayin'. For all of his madness and flaws, Jong-il did not start a major war.

Jong-un, on the other hand, may do so. He may be driven to aggression to consolidate his power within NK or to show he has the cojones to rule or both. And given that he is certainly a spoiled brat who was raised by a madman, we have no reason to think that he will be any more stable or savvy than his dad. And he likely will be less so.

A hostile crazy spoiled brat with nukes. Yay!

[mlmpetert]

Great thoughts JoeRedskin and Locus.

If i was S. Korean, or anyone close by, i would be very worried about what the future is going to hold for the region.

Also i watched this documentary a few months back.

Netflix - Unlimited TV Shows & Movies Online

It was very good and you come away with a lot of different thoughts. I personally believe the only way the country could adopt a less totalitarianism type of government is from within, so I think unless we see something happen in the next few years a major change will remain unlikely until Kim Il Sung dies and the reins are again passed on. I guess he could do something real crazy down the road for no apparent reason, but id say that’s highly unlikely.

One of the thoughts I got from the documentary is that the vast majority of people in N Korea are happy the way things are. Not happy in the Western sense but happy nonetheless. It is definitely partly because they don’t know better, but I think the idea of being completely segregated from the rest of the world and self-reliant is a very empowering virtue in their society.

The documentary also made me remember that many (probably the vast majority) of human civilizations throughout history have lived under a similar totalitarianism/authoritarianism style of government controlled by a few rulers/emperors/gods. Societies consisting of unsuppressed people are a relatively new phenomenon and you could probably make the case that humans are meant to be or have evolved to be ruled.

Also last night I remembered my signature:

In my humble opinion I honestly believe that Danny Snyder is not as terrible of a person as Kim Jong il.

Its now retired. Heres to hoping that Danny will be more terrible than Kim Il Sung (because that means Sung wont be that bad of a guy, right?).

[Gary84Clark]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

Joe, just curious, how do you know what China and North Korea will do? You speak with such certainty.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Gary84Clark

Joe, just curious, how do you know what China and North Korea will do? You speak with such certainty.

I am not certain just speculating based on my understanding of (1) China's historical stance on issues affecting the Korean peninsula and (2) my understanding of the military's role in Kim Jong-il and Kim Sung-il's regimes.

China is N. Korea's only ally and benefactor. I don't remember the numbers but the aid NK receives from China is significant. Essentially, without it, N. Korea's economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse making the recent famine seem like boon times. China supports NK simply b/c, without it, a united Korea under the Republic of Korea (South Korea) places a US/Western ally on their Manchurian border. Essentially, China views NK as a necessary buffer state and that's why they pump resources into it. Based on this, I would expect China to have a significant role in determining the political future of NK.

As to the NK military, it has a 1,000,000 million man army with 8,000,000 active reserve. Military Strength of North Korea. Additionally, as with most dicatators, it is the Praetorian Guard that made Jong-il's autocratic rule practicable. Given its size and historical role in the regime, I am simply speculating that it has some serious power players within it who will expect a significant voice in the country's affairs.

In addition to all that, my wife's best friend is a NK double agent who keeps me in the know.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I am not certain just speculating based on my understanding of (1) China's historical stance on issues affecting the Korean peninsula and (2) my understanding of the military's role in Kim Jong-il and Kim Sung-il's regimes.

China is N. Korea's only ally and benefactor. I don't remember the numbers but the aid NK receives from China is significant. Essentially, without it, N. Korea's economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse making the recent famine seem like boon times. China supports NK simply b/c, without it, a united Korea under the Republic of Korea (South Korea) places a US/Western ally on their Manchurian border. Essentially, China views NK as a necessary buffer state and that's why they pump resources into it. Based on this, I would expect China to have a significant role in determining the political future of NK.

As to the NK military, it has a 1,000,000 million man army with 8,000,000 active reserve. Military Strength of North Korea. Additionally, as with most dicatators, it is the Praetorian Guard that made Jong-il's autocratic rule practicable. Given its size and historical role in the regime, I am simply speculating that it has some serious power players within it who will expect a significant voice in the country's affairs.

In addition to all that, my wife's best friend is a NK double agent who keeps me in the know.

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

[724Skinsfan]

Watching a pretty interesting documentary on National Geographic Channel. Absolute mind-boggling craziness over there when comes to reverence of their Dear Leader.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Lotus

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

I could see the army supporting an aggressive stance towards SK which might, w/out strong leadership from Jong-un, lead to NK going too far. Possibly even threatening to invade. At that point, it's as you say - What would China do?

As you said, crazy kid with nukes. I just don't see anything good coming of this.

[SmootSmack]

What the F?


World News - Report: six months in labor camp for N. Koreans who didn't cry at despot's funeral

[Hog1]

he South Korea-based Daily NK newspaper said authorities have held “criticism sessions” for those who “transgressed” during organized weeping in the wake of the dictator’s death.

This sounds like something that could catch on at Fedex Field if J. Beck comes back.......

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

What the F?


World News - Report: six months in labor camp for N. Koreans who didn't cry at despot's funeral

The leader's sending them to six months hard labor will teach them to love the leader. Makes sense.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

What the F?


World News - Report: six months in labor camp for N. Koreans who didn't cry at despot's funeral

That'll learn 'em.

We could learn a good lesson in appreciating things we take for granted from N. Korea.

[NC_Skins]

/facepalm

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by mooby

That'll learn 'em.

We could learn a good lesson in appreciating things we take for granted from N. Korea.

I don't take anything from North Korea?

[mooby]

Originally Posted by The Goat

I don't take anything from North Korea?

Imagine calling your boss at work and telling him to hold your job for 6 months while you go to a "hard labor" camp because you failed to cry at your dictator leader's funeral. Just sayin', even though life in America isn't as great as we all would like it to be right now, it could always be worse.