The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[WillH]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Right, which is one of the reasons a trade is implausible. If he walks in free agency we get a 2019 3rd rounder as a compensatory pick.

So for a trade to make sense for us, a 3rd rounder is the starting point, and then you have to layer on additional compensation for us to consider taking the risk that Kirk might sign and play under the one year 34M tag deal.

So you’d be asking a team to not only sign Kirk to the largest QB contract in history (because remember nobody is trading for him unless they are assured he’ll sign long term), but also give up a 2nd rounder at minimum.

He’s frankly just not that good. No team will do it.

He will either sign with us, play under our tag again, or walk in free agency. There will be no trade.

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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[jamf]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Garoppolo is easier to sign and his upside is probably better than Kirks.

The 49ers could still tag him for a few years or just offer 20M per year for a player with only a handful of starts.

Not only is KC looking to be the highest paid player ever, any team that trades for him has zero leverage in signing him except for maybe Kirk doesn’t want to move again.
The Redskins made Kirk into a mercenary, It’s all about the money right now.

Also, The Patriots settled for a 2nd because they knew Garoppolo wouldn’t be back and they have Brady.

Bruce is probably asking for a 1st so we can draft a qb.
No one is going to pay a 1st and the richest nfl contract ever for KC.

[WillH]

Originally Posted by jamf

Garoppolo is easier to sign and his upside is probably better than Kirks.

The 49ers could still tag him for a few years or just offer 20M per year for a player with only a handful of starts.

Not only is KC looking to be the highest paid player ever, any team that trades for him has zero leverage in signing him except for maybe Kirk doesn’t want to move again.
The Redskins made Kirk into a mercenary, It’s all about the money right now.

Also, The Patriots settled for a 2nd because they knew Garoppolo wouldn’t be back and they have Brady.

Bruce is probably asking for a 1st so we can draft a qb.
No one is going to pay a 1st and the richest nfl contract ever for KC.

Don't you think they'd come down to a 2nd if they didn't have a better offer from a team he was willing to sign long term with though?

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[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play?

[WillH]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

Hmmm... I think the argument about cap space during free agency is a good one. They would still have 20mil+ in space and they can restructure and release a few players, but I do think you're right that they would be hampered. I'll have to think a bit that some.

BTW... letting him go would be bring a conditional 3rd next year right? That's much less value than a higher 3rd this year FWIW.

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[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by MTK

He won’t walk for nothing technically, worst case we get a compensatory pick.

a 3rd or 4th rd? That blows

[Buffalo Bob]

I think it will be interesting to see who gets what between Jimmy and Kirk. While you know what you get with Kirk because of the large sample, you also pretty much know he has a ceiling of a good, not great somewhere around the 10th best QB in the NFL. Jimmy from what he shows so far has a very high ceiling. I must admit I have only seen a couple of his 7 games, but he doesn't seem to have the noticeable flaws that the recent flash in the pans like Kap and RG3 did.

[skinsfan69]

Cousins has said it ain't about money so we'll see come March.

[diehardskin2982]

The sign and trade is possible because it's assumed that the Broncos are his preferred destination. The Redskins can keep Cousins from leaving for at least a year. They can also match any contract from Denver because of the Broncos cap situation. The NFL is a year-to-year business. The opportunity today may not be there tomorrow (see SF). So, if he wants to go there, Denver is going to have to pay for it.

I see us moving up to 5 and receiving a third this year or possibly a 2nd next year.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

The sign and trade is possible because it's assumed that the Broncos are his preferred destination. The Redskins can keep Cousins from leaving for at least a year. They can also match any contract from Denver because of the Broncos cap situation. The NFL is a year-to-year business. The opportunity today may not be there tomorrow (see SF). So, if he wants to go there, Denver is going to have to pay for it.

I see us moving up to 5 and receiving a third this year or possibly a 2nd next year.

I think we would all take that deal. At 5 take Allen or Mayfield and then add the talent u need around him in the other rounds.

[Schneed10]

So the Redskins' course of action is simple. By the end of February, make your last best and final offer. If he signs, or at least finally negotiates with you, then great. If it's still not good enough to get him to sign, mentally consider him gone. Refusal to negotiate upon presentation of a last best and final offer would be a surefire signal that he doesn't want to be a Redskin.

So let him go, and set about using your $55M in cap space to improve this team at several spots.

[Schneed10]

Please don't respond back: I don't know, but some capable front office should.

If you can't war game it out then this discussion isn't worthy of your response.

[skinsfan69]

I think what people here are saying is a sign and trade is a possibility. Is it a slim one? I'd say yes, slim to very slim. But it is possible so therefore it's up for discussion.

But I personally think Cousins has a lot of competition and that may drive down his value. He's got 4 guys that may go the Jets, Browns, Giants and Broncos with those first few picks of the 1st. That's more of a possibility, plus there's free agent competition. All those FA guys are going to come cheaper than Cousins.