It's Over: Cutler Going to Chicago

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

because orton, as horrible as he is, is really a better, more teachable QB than campbell.

no matter what system he's in, campbell will always stare down his receivers, be afraid to look deep, not go through his reads, have a slow release, and hold on to the ball too long. he's got a great attitude but he's not franchise QB material.

the way I see it, we learned two things yesterday:

1. The Redskins don't want Jason Campbell.
2. Neither does anyone else.

BHA, if you'll remember like two months ago, when you were offering Campbell for Chris Simms and stuff, I pointed out that no team is going to give a second round pick for a player they don't think you value. The only thing we learned yesterday is, that I was right.

Understandably, you value Campbell as equivalent to a second round pick for some team that doesn't have a quarterback. Evidence disagrees with you on that, but let's assume you are right, and Campbell truly is a mediocre player who is going to peak within the next year or so and never break into the top ten QBs. The assumption you are making is that: Every team that doesn't have a quarterback would be willing to trade a valuable 2nd round pick for the last year of Campbell's rookie contract.

But here's the thing: There isn't a team in the NFL that doesn't believe there's an NFL quality QB somewhere on the roster. The Jets think Brett Ratliff is as good as Campbell. The Lions think that Drew Stanton is as good as Campbell. The Vikings think Sage Rosenfels is as good as Campbell. The Bucs think that Luke McCown is as good as Campbell. The Broncos think Chris Simms is as good as Campbell (sorry, that was a cheap shot). The Raiders think...well, I don't know what the Raiders think.

But, if you are correct on Campbell's true value BHA, every one of these teams is most likely wrong, to the point where they could improve their team ten fold by trading a second round pick for Campbell. Hell, the Jets traded a third round pick for the departed soul of Brett Favre once they decided that Chad Pennington was "just average" to steal a phrase from you.

So what's the explanation here? That you are actually overvaluing Campbell? Well, the stats say you are very much undervaluing him, so that doesn't make sense. No, the point is this: NFL GMs behave a certain way. That means, they don't trade high draft picks for players they don't believe make their team a lot better. Now, Campbell would obviously make a lot of teams a lot better. The Bears would have been far better off trading us a second rounder for Campbell and signing him to a Garrard-type deal then they would be with Jay Cutler, given that they get to hold on to two firsts. But you have to understand why that didn't happen: the Bears view that as an inferior plan to just keeping the status quo of weak QB play.

In this case, the splash of outbidding the Skins for Cutler was just as valuable as the trade itself. Because if you look at the deal in a vaccuum, the Bears got totally ripped off. But once you consider the obscene price on Cutler, it's easy to be an excited Bear fan this morning. They beat Snyder at his game.

I'll just point out that (to reinforce my point), that NFL teams in just the past six years or so, have committed the following errors at the QB position:

- Traded a third round pick for Mark Brunell
- Traded a second round pick for AJ Feeley
- Decided that their team's QB situtation would be more stable once Daunte Culpepper was gone
- Traded a second round pick to get Culpepper instead of signing Drew Brees for free
- Signed Drew Bledsoe
- Drafted JP Losman
- Drafted JaMarcus Russell
- Drafted Alex Smith
- Drafted Vince Young
- Cut Byron Leftwich after going through an entire offseason with him as the starting QB.
- Given the largest contract in NFL history to Michael Vick
- Traded Matt Schaub becuase they didn't feel like they needed any competition for Vick
- Gave Marc Bulger a hefty contract extension
- Two, and very nearly three, different teams have dumped Kurt Warner.
- One team has signed Brian Griese, twice.
- Traded two first round picks, a third round pick, and Kyle Orton, for Jay Cutler.

And then, just the Eric Mangini edition:

- Kicked Chad Pennington to the curb in favor of Kellen Clemens
- Decided that Kellen Clemens wasn't good enough to play instead over a 38 year old Brett Favre, who needed to be traded for
- Decided that 24 year old Brady Quinn is too unproven to get all the reps as a starter, and tried to trade him for Jay Cutler.

[GTripp0012]

The above is an economic principle known as the Winner's Curse. The Bears are the unquestioned winner of the Jay Cutler sweepstakes. And because of it, it costs them a lot more wins in the long run (theoretically, assuming that they draft at an average success rate), then it would have to lose out to the Redskins on this one.

[redsk1]

Originally Posted by Miller101

Or maybe they just think that Zorn's offense is flawed. Why build a team around a coach that runs a flawed offense? Why build a team around a coach that can't protect his quarterback from an outside blitz? Why build a team around a coach that doesn't know how to run the football with Sellers, Betts, and Portis? Maybe they realized that they just really screwed up hiring this coach in the first place? Maybe they are painstakingly giving him one more year, but they know that they're in for a long season?

I'm just saying............Maybe?

Exactly who hired this coach and when? That was one of the points i've been making. The JZ hire was desparation, lack of a plan type of hire.

[GTripp0012]

The only teams who trade draft picks, in any form, are teams that think they are close. Which team that honestly believes they have no QB on their roster that can play honestly thinks they are close to the playoffs?

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

BHA, if you'll remember like two months ago, when you were offering Campbell for Chris Simms and stuff, I pointed out that no team is going to give a second round pick for a player they don't think you value. The only thing we learned yesterday is, that I was right.

Understandably, you value Campbell as equivalent to a second round pick for some team that doesn't have a quarterback. Evidence disagrees with you on that, but let's assume you are right, and Campbell truly is a mediocre player who is going to peak within the next year or so and never break into the top ten QBs. The assumption you are making is that: Every team that doesn't have a quarterback would be willing to trade a valuable 2nd round pick for the last year of Campbell's rookie contract.

But here's the thing: There isn't a team in the NFL that doesn't believe there's an NFL quality QB somewhere on the roster. The Jets think Brett Ratliff is as good as Campbell. The Lions think that Drew Stanton is as good as Campbell. The Vikings think Sage Rosenfels is as good as Campbell. The Bucs think that Luke McCown is as good as Campbell. The Broncos think Chris Simms is as good as Campbell (sorry, that was a cheap shot). The Raiders think...well, I don't know what the Raiders think.

But, if you are correct on Campbell's true value BHA, every one of these teams is most likely wrong, to the point where they could improve their team ten fold by trading a second round pick for Campbell. Hell, the Jets traded a third round pick for the departed soul of Brett Favre once they decided that Chad Pennington was "just average" to steal a phrase from you.

So what's the explanation here? That you are actually overvaluing Campbell? Well, the stats say you are very much undervaluing him, so that doesn't make sense. No, the point is this: NFL GMs behave a certain way. That means, they don't trade high draft picks for players they don't believe make their team a lot better. Now, Campbell would obviously make a lot of teams a lot better. The Bears would have been far better off trading us a second rounder for Campbell and signing him to a Garrard-type deal then they would be with Jay Cutler, given that they get to hold on to two firsts. But you have to understand why that didn't happen: the Bears view that as an inferior plan to just keeping the status quo of weak QB play.

In this case, the splash of outbidding the Skins for Cutler was just as valuable as the trade itself. Because if you look at the deal in a vaccuum, the Bears got totally ripped off. But once you consider the obscene price on Cutler, it's easy to be an excited Bear fan this morning. They beat Snyder at his game.

I'll just point out that (to reinforce my point), that NFL teams in just the past six years or so, have committed the following errors at the QB position:

- Traded a third round pick for Mark Brunell
- Traded a second round pick for AJ Feeley
- Decided that their team's QB situtation would be more stable once Daunte Culpepper was gone
- Traded a second round pick to get Culpepper instead of signing Drew Brees for free
- Signed Drew Bledsoe
- Drafted JP Losman
- Drafted JaMarcus Russell
- Drafted Alex Smith
- Drafted Vince Young
- Cut Byron Leftwich after going through an entire offseason with him as the starting QB.
- Given the largest contract in NFL history to Michael Vick
- Traded Matt Schaub becuase they didn't feel like they needed any competition for Vick
- Gave Marc Bulger a hefty contract extension
- Two, and very nearly three, different teams have dumped Kurt Warner.
- One team has signed Brian Griese, twice.
- Traded two first round picks, a third round pick, and Kyle Orton, for Jay Cutler.

And then, just the Eric Mangini edition:

- Kicked Chad Pennington to the curb in favor of Kellen Clemens
- Decided that Kellen Clemens wasn't good enough to play instead over a 38 year old Brett Favre, who needed to be traded for
- Decided that 24 year old Brady Quinn is too unproven to get all the reps as a starter, and tried to trade him for Jay Cutler.

Wow.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

This could be a rallying call for Zorn and Campbell. It reminds me of the scene in Major League when the team finds out they were assembled just so the owner could move the team after a sh*tty season.

Zorn will tell Campbell that Cutler was the first step in a two step process to get Shanahan here next year and that they're in it together. Us vs. Them!

Campbell - "Well what do we do know?"
Zorn - "Win the whole fu*#ing thing"

Why couldn't they have had this attitude without the threat of being traded?

[irish]

Originally Posted by redsk1

Exactly who hired this coach and when? That was one of the points i've been making. The JZ hire was desparation, lack of a plan type of hire.

I agree, as much as I like the Zorn hire as a breath of fresh air, I really think DS and Co. had no other options and had to promote Zorn to HC. I cant see how any big time coach would want to come to the Skins to be jerked around by an owner that wont back him and is as likely as not to fire him fast. I think any smart coach just wouldnt want that taint on his resume.

[freddyg12]

GT, I think you're assuming an awful lot w/regards to Campbell & the 2nd round pick that they asked for. Just because no deal was made doesn't mean there wasn't a deal in place. They weren't going to trade JC unless they got Cutler first.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by redsk1

Yea, i considered starting a "is JC going to still be traded" thread. It's worthy of discussion b/c it's fairly evident that the decision makers (Vin and Dan) don't think too highly of Mr. Campbell. They may feel that this bridge is burned. If JC doesn't have a good year, he's gone. If he does have a good year, he may not want to come back.

So, that begs the question would they take a 2nd rounder for JC and let TC's play QB this year. It's not so crazy enough not to ask. For this franchise nothing is beyond discussion.

Colt Brennan!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

GT, I think you're assuming an awful lot w/regards to Campbell & the 2nd round pick that they asked for. Just because no deal was made doesn't mean there wasn't a deal in place. They weren't going to trade JC unless they got Cutler first.

Yep, you are correct. I'm just saying that there's significant reason to believe that no one was interested in Campbell at that price.

Teams who try to build through the free agency and trade systems can't afford to buy high and sell low. We tried our darnedest to commit both errors yesterday.

If you are looking to trades to improve your team, you need to do what the Pats did to get Moss: find a player who fits, but is improperly valued by his current organization. Theoretically, this can be done with Jason Campbell, but not at the price of a second round pick.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by irish

I agree, as much as I like the Zorn hire as a breath of fresh air, I really think DS and Co. had no other options and had to promote Zorn to HC. I cant see how any big time coach would want to come to the Skins to be jerked around by an owner that wont back him and is as likely as not to fire him fast. I think any smart coach just wouldnt want that taint on his resume.

Fassell?

[BigHairedAristocrat]

gtripp I can't reply to everything you said on my phone but I want to acknowledge that you make a good, if somewhat counterintuitive argument. your explaination is very possible but its also possible that campbell is just mediocre and everyone who is not biased towards the skins is able to see it.

with all that historical data you provided, one thing becomes very clear - its very hard to find a great starting quarterback in this league. im just discouraged because well have to start from scratch again next year. the worst possible scenario happened yesterday.

if campbell surprises me and plays well, theres no way in hell he resigns here when his contract is up. if he plays poorly, well need a new QB anyways. either way, the longer we stick with campbell, the longer it will take for us to find a long term solution at QB.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

GT, I think you're assuming an awful lot w/regards to Campbell & the 2nd round pick that they asked for. Just because no deal was made doesn't mean there wasn't a deal in place. They weren't going to trade JC unless they got Cutler first.

Then that would blow the "Nobody was interested in JC for a second round pick" argument that is being made. The point I've been trying to make is we just don't know if anyone was, or is, interested in getting JC. Therefore to say he isn't any good because no one else wanted him is ridiculous.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

gtripp I can't reply to everything you said on my phone but I want to acknowledge that you make a good, if somewhat counterintuitive argument. your explaination is very possible but its also possible that campbell is just mediocre and everyone who is not biased towards the skins is able to see it.

I agree, but then it goes back to other threads in which I've shown that Campbell and Cutler are very similar statistically, which is a horse we've beaten to a bloody pulp.

Current NFL perception does seem to agree with you, BHA, as does the perception of our front office. But if there's anything I've learned in my lifetime, it's that whenever conventional logic sharply disagrees with strong evidence, it's probably wrong.

[irish]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Fassell?

Sure they talked to Fassell (and Gregg Williams too) but in the end I am sure Fassell told them thanks but no thanks so with no place else to turn they promoted Zorn.