The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[Buffalo Bob]

I think it will be interesting to see who gets what between Jimmy and Kirk. While you know what you get with Kirk because of the large sample, you also pretty much know he has a ceiling of a good, not great somewhere around the 10th best QB in the NFL. Jimmy from what he shows so far has a very high ceiling. I must admit I have only seen a couple of his 7 games, but he doesn't seem to have the noticeable flaws that the recent flash in the pans like Kap and RG3 did.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

[Schneed10]

So the Redskins' course of action is simple. By the end of February, make your last best and final offer. If he signs, or at least finally negotiates with you, then great. If it's still not good enough to get him to sign, mentally consider him gone. Refusal to negotiate upon presentation of a last best and final offer would be a surefire signal that he doesn't want to be a Redskin.

So let him go, and set about using your $55M in cap space to improve this team at several spots.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

Explain how.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

And additionally, help me with the timing. How are you ensuring that the situation is resolved before free agency opens?

Remember, you've got to know how much cap space you have to work with when free agency opens, otherwise you can't be active in that first week.

[Schneed10]

Please don't respond back: I don't know, but some capable front office should.

If you can't war game it out then this discussion isn't worthy of your response.

[skinsfan69]

I think what people here are saying is a sign and trade is a possibility. Is it a slim one? I'd say yes, slim to very slim. But it is possible so therefore it's up for discussion.

But I personally think Cousins has a lot of competition and that may drive down his value. He's got 4 guys that may go the Jets, Browns, Giants and Broncos with those first few picks of the 1st. That's more of a possibility, plus there's free agent competition. All those FA guys are going to come cheaper than Cousins.

[KI Skins Fan]

Schneed,

You had the right idea in a post a couple of weeks ago. You said the Skins should make him a solid offer now based on how much they can afford and a structure they can live with that would not adversely affect their ability to continue to build a contender. With that, you stated would come deadline for a deal to get done. I think that is the way to go at this point. There would be no offer of any form of tag.

I think that a solid deal on the table with a deadline might give the Redskins some leverage, although only Kirk and his agent could determine how much. In any event, it might get substantive talks started. If not, we'll know that Kirk doesn't want to be here.

Regardless of what happens once the offer is made and the deadline is established, the Skins can move forward with the urgent business of team building once Kirk signs or the deadline expires. The deadline must be firm for this strategy to work.

From my personal point of view, this strategy works whether or not Kirk signs a LTD because the Skins will now be able to proceed with either Plan A or Plan B. I don't much care which way it goes. With Plan A, we have our QB. With Plan B, we save up to $34M in cap space and we get a 3rd round compensatory pick. I'm good either way.

p.s. I see that you reposted your position while I was typing this post. Good.

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by metalskins

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play?

I think they mean we would not get any compensation from other teams. It doesn't mean we wouldn't get a compensatory selection.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I think what people here are saying is a sign and trade is a possibility. Is it a slim one? I'd say yes, slim to very slim. But it is possible so therefore it's up for discussion.

But I personally think Cousins has a lot of competition and that may drive down his value. He's got 4 guys that may go the Jets, Browns, Giants and Broncos with those first few picks of the 1st. That's more of a possibility, plus there's free agent competition. All those FA guys are going to come cheaper than Cousins.

OK I can get on board with this clarification. I would call it very very very very slim. Like not at all likely. Like, don't get your hopes up in any meaningful way, that kind of likely.

But if you want to talk about it for shits and giggles then fine. I'm more interested in thinking through the realities, personally.

As for your comment on his competition, I agree. The availability of Bradford and Bridgewater, not to mention possibilities of Alex Smith, definitely muddies things for Cousins. But ultimately, Cousins is the cream of the crop so I think someone is likely to lock onto him with a high dollar offer. We're starting to see believable rumblings coming from the top beat reporter covering the Broncos that they're all in on him, even going so far as to describe how they'd clear the space (Talib) to make it happen.

I think the availability of Bradford, Bridgewater and others is plenty of reason for us to make a strong but reasonable offer and let the chips fall where they may. I don't think I'd personally support signing Cousins to a $27M per year deal when Teddy BDG might be had for $8M less.

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I think they mean we would not get any compensation from other teams. It doesn't mean we wouldn't get a compensatory selection.

Oh, OK. That makes sense.

[Schneed10]

By the way I almost hope we let Cousins walk and sign Bridgewater because then I'll just go around saying

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

And additionally, help me with the timing. How are you ensuring that the situation is resolved before free agency opens?

Remember, you've got to know how much cap space you have to work with when free agency opens, otherwise you can't be active in that first week.

and that's my issue...I don't know all the time...what's allowed and what's not.

First and foremost: Now if we don't want Cousins as a QB and don't offer a deal, then let him walk...but this would be the most epically poor free handling of a QB of all time. You let an asset walk at all time high value with zero in return? lol, wow...historically bad business decision. What was the point to bring him back last year with that final deal offered? poor...this is why I state I have zero faith in the decision makers.

How to get Cousins franchise tag traded:

I think you get Cousins team together asap..or when its allowed. And make him a big boy offer....Because we do want him to be our QB, right? If we make him an offer that is legit (top 1 or 2 paid QB in the league) and he hesitates, rejects it or simply says I don't want to be here...then its not about the money then clearly its about him wanting to leave. I would explain time invested and the money we have paid to him the last couple years as part of that commitment. Let him know we will allow him to negotiate with team he wants and the franchise tag applies as compensation. Allow him to negotiate a deal and we can work out compensation according to tag rules. But be firm with him...once we offered a great deal and you say no, we have officially moved on at the QB spot.

I think 'war game' stuff...you can point to San Fran moving on Jimmy G where teams simply moved on from Cousins as an option. If we wants to play the "well, I want to stay now because of the tag" after stating he wanted to leave...Point to the Josh Norman situation where Carolina released him when everyone had spent all their big bucks elsewhere late in summer. Teams aren't going to wait for Cousins, look at the draft...I guarantee 5 QBs being draft first round. Teams will not wait, they are moving on.

I would look at this as a joint venture, tell Cousins we want the best for you and we want fair compensation. Work together to quickly get it done.

Franchise QB don't hit the market very often, I would imagine 5-7 teams would line up immediately and have serious contracts prepared.