Updated: Discuss our Backup QB Situation (formerly Byron Leftwich)

[irish]

Trade Campbell?! Who in the world would want him? I dont have a problem with the idea but I just dont see him being worth very much more than a later round pick.

[Dblock804]

Originally Posted by irish

Trade Campbell?! Who in the world would want him? I dont have a problem with the idea but I just dont see him being worth very much more than a later round pick.

Millen is gone from Detroit so I gotta think your right

[GTripp0012]

I like Byron Leftwich a lot, but the time to jump on him would have been last year when his value as at it's lowest. Thanks to some good performances as backup QB of the Super Bowl Champs, Leftwich's value is back in line with his talent level, and we would be competing with teams that want him as a starter.

Bottom line: Leftwich would have been a good fit here in the past, but our current situation doesn't warrant any serious interest in him right now.

[horny4zorny-nohomo]

he should replace T.C

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

In the context of this post, Leftwich is a viable option to replace Campbell for a year or two. he will be one of the cheapest free agents on the market (which is important, not only because of our cap situation, but also because rumor has it snyder is going to be stingy this off-season), he has some familiarity to the WCO (even though he wasnt that great in it), and he wants to be here. If he really has this lightning fast decision making that Florio speaks of, he's an upgrade over Campbell by default. One of the many reasons Campbell is a horrible fit here is he can't make decisions quickly enough. He also lconsistently locks on to his receivers and is cripplingly (is that a word?) to take a chance - Leftwich would be an upgrade in those areas as well.

But don't you see the big picture here? People wrote Leftwich off because of non-measurable evidences such as: "Slow release, slow decision making, non-system quarterback". None of those things are actually true in Leftwich's case (well, slow release is true, but that's made irrelivant by other things he does well). But you are invoking the same non-measureable arguments against Campbell as you are dismissing in support of Leftwich.

Leftwich is no better or worse of a decision-maker than Campbell is, who is no better or worse a decision maker than Jeff Garcia is. It's all perception based on a number of factors.

Thankfully, you can measure QB improvement, and all three of the aforementioned guys kept improving from the 3rd to 4th to 5th to 6th year in the NFL. The narratives are very different though, thanks entirely to scouting error.

One guy went on to develop into a pro bowler, then his stock dropped, bounced around the league, and resurfaced. Another guy was developing, had his development abruptly ended, bounced around the league and now his stock is on the upswing. The last guy has yet to be replaced by his current team, but the fan base is split down the middle on his future and the front office is hesitant to pull the trigger.

Shouldn't we worry about getting it right with our own guy before trying to pick up a career reclaimation project?

[RedskinMike]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Actually, if there were ever a year to be bad, its 2009. Since 2010 will be the last year of the CBA, certain rules go into effect. One of them is that the best 8 teams in the NFL (teams that dont make the playoffs or who are eliminated from the playoffs wild-card weekend) are forbidden from signing free agents until the lose an equal number of their own. For example, if we wanted to sign in 2 free agents, we would have to release two of our own first... and its not like we could just sign them back later on... other than the draft, we'd be extremely limited in what we were able to do to upgrade our team.

Also, Ive also read conflicting reports about whether there will be a draft in 2011... if theres not, i can see an increased number of juniors entering the draft in 2010 to avoid the uncertainty in whatever would happen in 2011. So by playing poorly in 2009, we would be in a much better position to acquire talent in 2010 - the last year with a draft. It would put us in a much better position long-term.

Just to clarify, i'm in no way advocating that we deliberatly tank the 2009 season. I just think the dynamics of the expiring CBA may make this the best time to focus on the future, instead of constantly trying to patch this team together with aging vets, like we've done for the past decade.

On a side note, If theres not a draft in 2011, perhaps we can trade some of our 2011 picks to a team that hasnt done their research

the only way there is no draft is if there is a lockout

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Colt Brennan = Timmy Chang, what have you seen to make you believe CB will be successful as an NFL starter?

Off the top of my head, both John Madden and Clinton Portis think Brennan is going to be a baller some day. He is a QB hand-picked by Zorn so Zorn saw something in him.

As to your Timmy Chang comparison, its insulting. From wikipedia:

Colt Brennan

Brennan holds the NCAA D-I record for most touchdown passes in a single season with 58, as well as 30 other NCAA Division I FBS records.

Timmy Chang

Chang currently holds the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision all-time interception record with 80,

Chang also doesnt have the height to be an NFL QB. If not for his injury, Brennan was slated in most mocks to go in round 3; 4 at the latest. Chang was never slated to be drafted by anyone. yes, Brennan was in a very QB-friendly system. yes he has a long way to go, but the kid is a good fit for our offense. He may not be the long-term answer for us at QB, but then again, he may be. Campbell has already proved that he isnt.

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Leftwich is not an upgrade over Campbell. I don't accept the premise that Campbell "can't make decisions quickly" or "locks on" moreso than any other QB in his situation. These are very general statements that aren't quantified or backed up by any evidence.

They are general statements yes, but no one who watched him play can disagree with these statements unless they want to argue just for the sake of arguing. Unless someone wants to watch every QBs eyes every play and then compare how many times Campbell stares down vs others, of course it cant be backed up by evidence... but the fact still remains that Campbell almost always stares down his guy. Its not the exception with him, its the rule. He has improved some in his decision making, yes, but his release has barely improved at all. as far as leftwhich being "better" than Campbell... its debateable. neither of them can be our franchise WCO QB. However, if we traded Campbell and went with Leftwich, we would atleast have compensation in extra draft picks.

Gibbs ran that system and JC's QB rating was much less. He's not particularly accurate downfield.

Campbell never had time to develop in that system - but he was a much better fit for it. Our offense as a whole suffered dramatically by the organizational structure here under Gibbs. It was chaos. Gibbs was in charge of the running game, Saunders the passing; Gibbs always made Campbell wait until the last second before giving Campbell the play; etc... all of that really hurt Campbell. if we had kept a similar offense but actually had someone competent running things, our offense (and Campbell) would have been much better in 2009.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But don't you see the big picture here? People wrote Leftwich off because of non-measurable evidences such as: "Slow release, slow decision making, non-system quarterback". None of those things are actually true in Leftwich's case (well, slow release is true, but that's made irrelivant by other things he does well). But you are invoking the same non-measureable arguments against Campbell as you are dismissing in support of Leftwich.

Leftwich is no better or worse of a decision-maker than Campbell is, who is no better or worse a decision maker than Jeff Garcia is. It's all perception based on a number of factors.

Thankfully, you can measure QB improvement, and all three of the aforementioned guys kept improving from the 3rd to 4th to 5th to 6th year in the NFL. The narratives are very different though, thanks entirely to scouting error.

One guy went on to develop into a pro bowler, then his stock dropped, bounced around the league, and resurfaced. Another guy was developing, had his development abruptly ended, bounced around the league and now his stock is on the upswing. The last guy has yet to be replaced by his current team, but the fan base is split down the middle on his future and the front office is hesitant to pull the trigger.

Shouldn't we worry about getting it right with our own guy before trying to pick up a career reclaimation project?

I do see the big picture, which is why I want to move Campbell now.

You assume Campbell has the potential to become a franchise WCO quarterback. Everyone in the NFL was ridiculing the skins for bringing in Zorn last year because everyone realized that Campbell is a horrible fit for the offense Zorn would want to run. Dragging this thing out with Campbell is going to get us nowhere. We'll have a serviceable QB for a year, maybe two, but then we'll have to let him walk as a free agent and receive no compensation in return. Campbells trade value will never be higher than it is now. he's worth more to us as a 2nd round pick than he is as a 1-2 year starter; especially when we could bring in Leftwich (who couldnt be any worse) and have a 2nd round pick to use on a lineman.

[irish]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I like Byron Leftwich a lot, but the time to jump on him would have been last year when his value as at it's lowest. Thanks to some good performances as backup QB of the Super Bowl Champs, Leftwich's value is back in line with his talent level, and we would be competing with teams that want him as a starter.

Bottom line: Leftwich would have been a good fit here in the past, but our current situation doesn't warrant any serious interest in him right now.

I also cant help thinking why would BL want to leave a perennial contender like Pgh to come to the Skins. I know he's from DC but Pgh is only 4 hours from here so he's not far from his family.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by irish

I also cant help thinking why would BL want to leave a perennial contender like Pgh to come to the Skins. I know he's from DC but Pgh is only 4 hours from here so he's not far from his family.

He's already got a ring from Pittsburg. Why would he want to stay with them as a backup, making backup money, and know that he would never get the chance to start unless Big Ben got hurt?

He's still fairly young, is a free agent, and the redskins are the team he presumably grew up rooting for. If he felt he had a chance to come here, get starting money, and actually get to PLAY for the team he loves, why stay in pittsburg and sit on a bench the rest of his career?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

I do see the big picture, which is why I want to move Campbell now.

You assume Campbell has the potential to become a franchise WCO quarterback. Everyone in the NFL was ridiculing the skins for bringing in Zorn last year because everyone realized that Campbell is a horrible fit for the offense Zorn would want to run. Dragging this thing out with Campbell is going to get us nowhere. We'll have a serviceable QB for a year, maybe two, but then we'll have to let him walk as a free agent and receive no compensation in return. Campbells trade value will never be higher than it is now. he's worth more to us as a 2nd round pick than he is as a 1-2 year starter; especially when we could bring in Leftwich (who couldnt be any worse) and have a 2nd round pick to use on a lineman.

No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

------------

P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.

[cochise]

Yeah, well, that "slow relaese" burned our defense!!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Unless someone wants to watch every QBs eyes every play and then compare how many times Campbell stares down vs others, of course it cant be backed up by evidence... but the fact still remains that Campbell almost always stares down his guy.

While I do admire your ability to look at both sides here, you still have to leave this opinion out of the debate because 1) It IS in dispute and 2) it simply can't be proven, or even supported by anything.

You're best off moving forward without this claim, I think.

[53Fan]

While I don't agree with everything BHA posts, I do enjoy getting a different perspective on things and I think some of us are selling Colt Brennan short.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

While I don't agree with everything BHA posts, I do enjoy getting a different perspective on things and I think some of us are selling Colt Brennan short.

I don't think too many people are selling Brennan short. Brennan=Timmy Chang isn't very productive, but what's Brennan's ultimate hope? That he develops into a bona fide NFL Starter, someone like Jason Campbell or Byron Leftwich, and then people don't cast him aside for stupid reasons (like the ones that dropped him in the draft, if the scouts were wrong)?

I think he's more than capable of being our No. 2 guy, but I wouldn't bet a season on his ability to play in the NFL. Too much risk for the potential reward (an extra second round pick in this case).