Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by redskins1974

Well I think his accuracy rating is inflated because of all the many times he threw a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 12.

and b/c you don't like Campbell.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

The conspiracy theorist would also ignore the fact the team drafted 2 WRs and a TE last year, and pounced on Dockery the second he was available this year.

Also Rinehart. Whether he works out or not, at least the FO was trying. Let's hope he is much improved this year.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.

These are valuable stats for evaluating Campbell, however to be fair yards per attempt needs to be evaluated in conjunction with the accuracy statistics.

A plot chart with YPA on the X axis and the accuracy % you discuss above on the Y would be helpful. Anyone with both accuracy % above the median and YPA above the median (they'd be plotted in the upper right quadrant of the graph) will likely represent the most prolific passers, there should be a high correlation between that list and the list of highest rated (in terms of QB rating).

The numbers tell the tale of how accurate Campbell is, but his YPA is atrocious. The YPA of course reflects the high drop rate, and the terrible performance of the line in the second half of the season resulting in Zorn reigning in the aggressiveness.

I think the stats indicate Campbell has exactly what it takes to be a very prolific passer, but his YPA won't reflect it until he gets the blocking and gets better WR play.

We just have to hope Vinny and company recognize that Campbell is not the problem.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

And the quarterback who was found to be most similar to Campbell, using his accuracy score...well, you guys will like this:

Jay Cutler. Almost identical in accuracy last year.

Out of curiosity where was Matt Cassell in this equation?

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by redskins1974

Well I think his accuracy rating is inflated because of all the many times he threw a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 12.

You realize that our top 3 receivers last season (Cooley, Moss and ARE) all averaged more than 10 yards per reception, right? I'm so glad that camp and the season are right around the corner because it's so annoying to keep reading the same tired and inaccurate babble.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

You realize that our top 3 receivers last season (Cooley, Moss and ARE) all averaged more than 10 yards per reception, right? I'm so glad that camp and the season are right around the corner because it's so annoying to keep reading the same tired and inaccurate babble.

What about yards after catch?

Cooley: 10.2 YPC, 5.7 YAC. So if I understand this right (and again my math sucks) most of his receptions were within 5 yards of Campbell, on average.

Moss: 13.2 YPC, 5.5 YAC

ARE: 11.2 YPC, 3.5 YAC

Wait a minute now, this makes no sense Yahoo! Sports (my source for the above) is saying CP averaged 7.8 ypc last year, but 8.7 yards after.

Never mind then.

But anyway, JC's accuracy should be high and only getting higher. That's the whole point of the WCO isn't it? Short, accurate passes within 5-7 yards. How often did Jerry Rice catch a deep bomb? More often than not it was a slant across the middle and then he took off

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Angry

Out of curiosity where was Matt Cassell in this equation?

Cassel was 9th at 84.6

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

What about yards after catch?

Cooley: 10.2 YPC, 5.7 YAC. So if I understand this right (and again my math sucks) most of his receptions were within 5 yards of Campbell, on average.

Moss: 13.2 YPC, 5.5 YAC

ARE: 11.2 YPC, 3.5 YAC

Wait a minute now, this makes no sense Yahoo! Sports (my source for the above) is saying CP averaged 7.8 ypc last year, but 8.7 yards after.

Never mind then.

But anyway, JC's accuracy should be high and only getting higher. That's the whole point of the WCO isn't it? Short, accurate passes within 5-7 yards. How often did Jerry Rice catch a deep bomb? More often than not it was a slant across the middle and then he took off

This means CP, on average, caught his 28 receptions about one yard behind the line of scrimmage, ran 8.7 yards, and netted 7.8 on the play.

Makes sense. He was the target on dump offs and screens.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

These are valuable stats for evaluating Campbell, however to be fair yards per attempt needs to be evaluated in conjunction with the accuracy statistics.

A plot chart with YPA on the X axis and the accuracy % you discuss above on the Y would be helpful. Anyone with both accuracy % above the median and YPA above the median (they'd be plotted in the upper right quadrant of the graph) will likely represent the most prolific passers, there should be a high correlation between that list and the list of highest rated (in terms of QB rating).

The numbers tell the tale of how accurate Campbell is, but his YPA is atrocious. The YPA of course reflects the high drop rate, and the terrible performance of the line in the second half of the season resulting in Zorn reigning in the aggressiveness.

I think the stats indicate Campbell has exactly what it takes to be a very prolific passer, but his YPA won't reflect it until he gets the blocking and gets better WR play.

We just have to hope Vinny and company recognize that Campbell is not the problem.

The correlation is weak-positive (0.13). This suggests that there's some, but little, reason to believe that the most efficient passers also happen to be the most accurate.

The line represents the expected regression for this sample.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The correlation is weak-positive (0.13). This suggests that there's some, but little, reason to believe that the most efficient passers also happen to be the most accurate.

The line represents the expected regression for this sample.

Nice, you actually did it. Cool.

The assertion wasn't that a correlation (let alone causation) exists between accuracy and yards per attempt. The assertion was that those QBs listed in the upper right quadrant of the plot are the most prolific passers from a QB rating standpoint (where quadrants are determined by the intersection of the median values of YPA and Accuracy). This is kind of a no-brainer; if you're really accurate and your attempts go for more yards, you'll put up big numbers.

This chart bears that out. The top passers in terms of QB rating are indeed found in the upper right quadrant - Brees, Warner, Cutler, Manning.

There are clear shortcomings in this chart, as it does not factor interceptions or TDs, which are both significant factors in QB rating. But still, it provides a more complete picture of Campbell.

Campbell ranks 7th in accuracy, yeah that's nice. But the yards per attempt rank in the bottom half (below the median). This lends credence to the naysayers in this thread: Campbell was indeed accurate but he was not going downfield like other QBs.

Of course, this is reflective of the terrible O line, high drop rate by our WRs, and reflective of Zorn's mid-season adjustment to reign in the passing game getting more conservative to protect the football from a failing offensive line. It is not an indictment of Campbell.

It encapsulates more of the entire picture: Campbell is accurate, but we didn't get the yardage we needed. Question is, will we get the yardage if the line and WRs improve? I say we will, but we'll have to wait and see.

[GTripp0012]

Using the graph, the 13 most prolific passers from last year were:

Brees
Warner
Pennington
Schaub
Delhomme
Rivers
Peyton
Garcia
Cutler
Rodgers
Romo
Cassel
Edwards

Which sounds about right, or at least acceptable.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Campbell ranks 7th in accuracy, yeah that's nice. But the yards per attempt rank in the bottom half (below the median). This lends credence to the naysayers in this thread: Campbell was indeed accurate but he was not going downfield like other QBs.

Of course, this is reflective of the terrible O line, high drop rate by our WRs, and reflective of Zorn's mid-season adjustment to reign in the passing game getting more conservative to protect the football from a failing offensive line. It is not an indictment of Campbell.

It encapsulates more of the entire picture: Campbell is accurate, but we didn't get the yardage we needed. Question is, will we get the yardage if the line and WRs improve? I say we will, but we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah, although it says less about what he was doing, and more about what he wasn't succeeding at.

Campbell's YPA declined sharply in the second half of the year, to 2008 Seattle type levels. This makes intuitive sense, since we run the same system, and Seattle was absolutely ravaged by injuries last year.

Would anyone call Hasselbeck or Wallace a dunker? Perhaps, but I think Hasselbeck has a track record that suggests they are capable of winning in this league. Campbell doesn't have the track record, but the evidence that he will get it some day is substancial.

[GTripp0012]

It's interesting that Jet Favre is just a hair up the way on the same trendline from Campbell. Favre was a major dunker last year, which made him a surprise top five inclusion on the accuracy list.

The league MVP was just a little farther up on the same trendline.

Translation: this offense can work.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Yeah, although it says less about what he was doing, and more about what he wasn't succeeding at.

Campbell's YPA declined sharply in the second half of the year, to 2008 Seattle type levels. This makes intuitive sense, since we run the same system, and Seattle was absolutely ravaged by injuries last year.

Would anyone call Hasselbeck or Wallace a dunker? Perhaps, but I think they have a track record that suggests they are capable of winning in this league. Campbell doesn't have the track record, but the evidence that he will get it some day is substancial.

I would agree wholeheartedly.

If given a Seattle circa 2007 offensive line, Campbell would put up Hasselbeck circa 2007 numbers (91.4 QB rating, 3966 yds, 63% comp, 28 TD, 12 INT). There's empirical evidence to support that.

However, there's no empirical evidence to suggest our offensive line will be any better this year than last. We just have hopes of improvement by Heyer, or Bridges, or Mike Williams. And we have hopes that Randy Thomas can come back from injury. But it's still a big question mark.

I think we'd agree that with a Redskins line circa 2008, Campbell will not post numbers any better than Campbell circa 2008.

But Campbell's not the problem. We have to just hope Vinny and Danny can see that.

[GTripp0012]

What I'm struggling with explaining is how the offense rebounded for two weeks in the middle of the second half.

Against Seattle, and against the Giants, their opponent adjusted numbers on offense are above their season average (which itself, is weighted up by the run in weeks 2-5). This was coming off their worst five games stretch of the season (Week 6-Week 11).

There was some adjustment that Zorn made that got the offense functioning again, despite the overall decline of the unit. It wasn't until the Baltimore game that we finally got overmatched in terms of injuries of personnel.

That's my project for this week. Find out what Zorn corrected in the middle of November that got the offense working again, and why they were a non-functional group for most of the middle of the season.