The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by MTK

I heard Cousins is headed to the XFL

That would be something! Cousins and RGIII playing in the XFL!

[diehardskin2982]

I am going to my thoughts on the idea of us franchising Kirk and trading him here, I invite honest discussion and feedback.

How would this work> Redskins would Franchise Kirk, and attempt to trade him before the draft. We would invite his agent to negotiate a long-term deal, while we workout possible compensation with the other team. If this is true, the team has to have an agreement in play with a possible team.

Why would Kirk do this?

> To lock-in $34mm for one year

> Because Redskins could pay him that money and make him sit out of football for a year. Highly unlikely, but I think this management group is crazy enough to do it.

> Lost of opportunity- When the desired team of choice gets another QB.

Why would he not do it...

> Pissing match with Redskins brass.

> He can bank on them not keeping $34 mm on the books.

> The prospect of truly becoming a Free Agent

> His future team losing draft picks in the exchange for him.

[SolidSnake84]

What happens if the Redskins place the exclusive tag on Cousins just to keep him from leaving for one more year, but he doesn't sign it? Does he have to sit out the entire season?

[diehardskin2982]

Why would another team do it?
> He is the arguably the best option on the market

> If a team believes that he wouldn't consider then seriously otherwise and has the cap room, why not go for it?
> The coach or person involved needs to results immediately.

I think one of the many monkey wrenches in this plan is Nick Foles. Why pay top dollar in a trade for Cousins, when you can get the Superbowl MVP.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

What happens if the Redskins place the exclusive tag on Cousins just to keep him from leaving for one more year, but he doesn't sign it? Does he have to sit out the entire season?

Can't play without a contract

[MTK]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

I am going to my thoughts on the idea of us franchising Kirk and trading him here, I invite honest discussion and feedback.

How would this work> Redskins would Franchise Kirk, and attempt to trade him before the draft. We would invite his agent to negotiate a long-term deal, while we workout possible compensation with the other team. If this is true, the team has to have an agreement in play with a possible team.

Why would Kirk do this?

> To lock-in $34mm for one year

> Because Redskins could pay him that money and make him sit out of football for a year. Highly unlikely, but I think this management group is crazy enough to do it.

> Lost of opportunity- When the desired team of choice gets another QB.

Why would he not do it...

> Pissing match with Redskins brass.

> He can bank on them not keeping $34 mm on the books.

> The prospect of truly becoming a Free Agent

> His future team losing draft picks in the exchange for him.

Tandler sums it up well so I'll just leave this here

The Redskins can't trade Kirk Cousins now and here's why | NBC Sports Washington

[Macro]

Hi, I'm new here.
Re: Cousins future.

I believe a tag and trade is being worked upon and is the preferred method for Bruce and Dan. Especially so for Bruce, if for nothing else than to attain the most symmetrical and even trade "equation" possible, as it relates to what they are giving up for Alex Smith.

Most of the counter arguments I've read fail to recognize the rules and regulations of the CBA or they tend to focus why what they believe Cousins would or would not do, or some amalgam of how cost prohibitive it would be (in theory) in carrying Cousins on a franchise tag (for example) simultaneous with Smith.

But those arguments fail to see that, of course, the tag and trade will be negotiated prior to the new league year and that said cap hit of the franchise tag will be removed as quickly as it appears on March 14th, the same exact day. And that ultimately Cousins will still be able to negotiate his long term contract with his preferred team, while his suitor team will avoid uncertainties from a free for all bidding process, with compliance to Bruce's remuneration request, which will ultimately be below market (at least as I see it).

One thing people keep glazing over, once Cousins signs the Tag, he's under team control. He can't do anything to stop a trade. The trade itself is only between Bruce and the suitor team, for whatever remuneration Bruce/Redskins deem sufficient.

There's no red card to pull or grievance for Cousins to file.
He signs it ... his contract is property.


Running concurrent to the Smith trade would be the remuneration for Cousins, who, of course, has a market. While everyone can see that multiple teams are lining up and players of said organizations are actively stumping for their orgs to attain Cousins, many detractors of the tag-trade claim the Redskins don't have a market for Cousins. Unfortunately, competent and established QBs in the NFL always have a market.


And of course when under the Tag (using the franchise tag as the example), it would require a suitor team to trade for the contractual rights. That is of course the only thing that is being traded. Cousins isn't agreeing to a contract extension deal with Bruce, Cousins would be agreeing to a contract with his already preferred team, his #1 choice if you will, the team that is trading for him.

That's essentially what Bruce is selling on the tag and trade. He would be selling that Cousins still gets to choose his team, which is what he wants. Bruce is just insinuating himself in the middle in order to get compensation. And of course, once Cousins signs the tag, which he will, his one-year tender contract is under team control. Bruce can do whatever the hell he wants to do, accept whatever compensation and sell to whomever.

Of course, that's the gambit there for Bruce. Rather than go through with a threat of selling Cousins to Siberia for a pack of smokes, he'll offer to send him to his team of choice, his ultimate want. Which also entails that the contract that Cousins wants from his #1 team is there, in advance, so his requirements are met.

All that remains is the remuneration between Bruce and the suitor, in this case Elway and Denver.


So, a market does exist. Notwithstanding the generally accepted tenet of the importance of the QB position in the NFL.

I'm quoting someone from memory, but paraphrasing, "if you don't have a QB for your organization in the NFL, the search for one is all consuming. It dominates your field of view. And careers are made or broken, jobs are lost or saved upon the right or wrong choice for a QB."

Something like that.
So, tenet #1 involving any trade scenario of a QB in the NFL starts from the fundamental position of ... thirsty teams are thirsty.


There are many reasons to this end, and to be clear I've read many if not all of the standard arguments against that notion (tag - trade) that have been presented here in this thread as well as other threads on other boards and platforms. To me many of those arguments miss the target and conflate different aspects into one, or outright superimpose the incorrect one onto another, missing the underlying reason or cause.

I'd love to craft an OP in a thread which details all the various tangents and extrapolations, the rules and regulations set forth by the CBA, as well as each action and right granted to all parties involved, including the various ploys that many people have already thrown out in arguments, but to do so in detail, in one place showcasing the larger picture. Perhaps I can do that in time to come when I'm able.

[Macro]

The staging for this negotiation is, of course, going to be at the Combine between March 2nd and March 5th, where virtually all free agent deals and/or trades are brokered prior to the new league year (March 14th).

The Combine will be the summit because, of course, the availability of all front offices being there together, likewise Mike McCartney also being there to broker a long term contract for Cousins.

The LTC exists in of itself and it doesn't change which organization that Cousins prefers as his "#1," nor does it change the perimeters of the contract that they (Cousins/McCartney) would be looking for whether as an unrestricted FA or as an owned commodity under the Tag for a trade.

It might be presumptuous of me for saying this, but, everyone knows that the connection to Denver is real and the Shanny aspect to it, via Elway, is also clearly a motivating factor. Not to mention that Denver has a much more favorable selling position of its Front Office to Cousins, by way of their not too distant history of being in two SuperBowls, which neither of the other two major players (Browns & Jets) would be able to sell themselves.

The contract will be the same regardless if written for free agency, or written for a tag and trade. The only thing that would be different would the guaranteed dollars in year one. Obviously, because of the Tag being fully guaranteed. But in general either contract will between (ballpark) 26/27 million AAV, with 90 million guaranteed (give or take) over the life.

That's an important point, I tend to think.


Most of the retorts I've read after that point is made is something like: "why would Cousins even negotiate at all?"

Well, you're asking why Cousins would want to negotiate with an organization he already likes, wants to be with, in Denver? Sure he would. That's his "#1" (I'm presuming). Are you asking why Cousins would be interested in 90 million dollars guaranteed? Well, of course he would.

90 million dollars guaranteed over a 5 year deal is better than 34 million, or 28 million, guaranteed on a one year deal. Simple. Which ultimately satisfies the "security" aspect he has wanted and that which he has said is one of two main things he wants in any deal, while simultaneously giving him "his choice" of team (the other desire he has stated), which he spelled out during his fireside chat with the local radio guys ... (Grant & Danny, I think).


So, naturally, whenever referencing the negotiation here after, it's referring to Indianapolis, between March 2nd and 5th. And between the major parties, namely Bruce/Dan and Elway/Denver and Cousins/McCartney.


And of course, the deal, as I've run through it, will be presented under the attempt to have it agreed upon in principal there before the weekend is over, prior to the new league year, with compliance of the deal in principal signed by all parties to a non-disclosure and/or affidavit, and ultimately the timeline being, roughly, tagged prior to the March 6th deadline, the tag signed at an agreed-to date prior to the new league year, like March 9th (for example), and the trade initiating on the first day of the new league year of March 14th at 4pm.

So, clearly, the deal will start under the premise, being pitched as under the Franchise tag. That's how it will be presented to Elway/Broncos and Cousins/McCartney.

Why? Because, as you know, the Franchise tag for the 3rd installment of the FT makes it the exclusive version, as per the rules of the CBA and by using the FT, it therefore eliminates the Transition tag loophole of Cousins/McCartney using the offer sheet tactic.

That tactic being one of signing an offer sheet which if the Redskins tried to match, solely for the purpose of immediately flipping Cousins back in a trade to the team which wrote the offer sheet, would mean that they (Redskins) would have to match the signing bonus in full, which if trading Cousins on that contract, would then accelerate the signing bonus in full onto the 2018 year cap.

So, of course, the offer sheet tactic has to be eliminated. That's why it has to be pitched as the Franchise tag, at least initially.

The FT also ensures compliance from Cousins, who, of course will sign the tag "immediately," for lack of a better word. I know here will be a great spot for someone to jump in and argue that point above, I've already read those arguments. The answer to it is simply, that not signing the tag would be self defeating for Cousins and ultimately harm his earnings and his market if he willfully tried to keep himself in limbo off the market rather than agree to the resolution. I can get into all of those reasons later.


But, to wrap this introductory part up, I believe in the end, the Transition tag will ultimately be used, only as a sweetheart deal to sweeten the trade between Bruce and Elway, while giving Cousins exactly what he wants simultaneously.

The sweetheart aspect relates to the cost differential between the FT and TT, that of 34.47 versus 28.73. I believe before all is said and done, that once Bruce walks both Elway and Cousins/McCartney through the parameters, he'll then throw out the idea of doing it on the transition tag, thus lessening the year-one amount that Elway would have to pay.

And in kind-of a genius stroke for Bruce (I know ...) it will actually enlist Elway to become the agent to drive the notion home that McCartney should comply to the idea of signing the TT rather than exercise their right to solicit offer sheets.

I can definitely get into more detail on that if need be.

So, in the macro, Cousins tagged, and traded to Denver for a 3rd round pick in 2018 and Aqib Talib. Of course Elway and the Broncos will have already negotiated a long term contract extension upon the one year Tag tender and thus will have offered Cousins, (ballpark) a 5 year deal between 26/27 AAV with 90 million guaranteed (give or take).

Elway seeing that the asking price for Cousins of a 3rd round pick is a pittance to what he would calculate for an established and competent QB, already NFL proven. Likewise, the Talib thing would be addition by subtraction for Denver, but it would be important for Bruce for optics purposes.

The basic timetable as I see it being that it is negotiated (the LTC between Cousins and Denver, the remuneration also) between March 2nd and March 5th. The tag being applied March 5th, one day before the tag deadline. Then a predetermined date for Cousins to sign the Tag, March 9th, for example. Leading to the actual trade itself on March 14th.

[Macro]

"Why would Cousins sign the tag, why wouldn't he just not sign it?"

Because that would ultimately be self defeating. He would be removing himself from the market, on purpose, and be in self imposed limbo.

The teams that were all lining up to write him a contract in (supposedly) free agency, would then see that he's neither signed, nor under contract, and they would have to start to make plans in lieu of his situation.

That would negatively affect his ability to do the two main things he's been telling everyone, up to and including prior to the SuperBowl, that of wanting to choose his team as well as secure the LTC representative of a franchise QB.

So Cousins signs the tag. That should go without saying.


Another argument floating around. Cousins will just sign the tag and fold his arms and say that "he'll not negotiate with anyone."

This also doesn't make sense to me.

Firstly, he doesn't have a choice. Once he signs the Tag, he's under contract. Bruce can trade him to whoever he wants. Bruce can threaten to send him to Buffalo, or Miami, or wherever.

All that that is simply saying is that Cousins would be sent to team not of his choosing, to a team he wasn't fond of. That's the threat if he doesn't want to comply.

Yeah, perhaps that's an empty threat by Bruce (if he were indeed to make it). Maybe that's just me projecting an example onto the situation that doesn't carry water.

But it applies, if you ask me. The threat of sending Cousins to Buffalo for a 6th round pick ... of course Buffalo would pay a 6th for Cousins. Are you going to tell me that in this year's draft, by the time we get to the 6th round, that the available QBs are going to be anywhere nears to as good as Cousins? No way.

So, of course it's a bluff, intended to see if Cousins would call, but ultimately it's about Bruce offering a better option at the same instance. That of going to Cousins' first choice team, to send him to the place he already wants to be instead of a place he doesn't want to be.



Secondly, the more obvious reason, no sports agent on the planet is going to advice their client not to sign a 90 million dollar guaranteed contract in order to stay on a 34 (or 28) million dollar contract, one that would ultimately see him riding the bench and collecting dust.


Of course McCartney would advise Cousins to negotiate a LTC with Elway/Denver in order to receive the 5 year 90 guaranteed deal. And of course Elway would offer that so as to lock into Bruce's cost of a 3rd round pick.

Buttressed by the fact that a team like the Jets, who have a HC and Front Office personnel whose jobs are hanging in the balance, who is a team that is desperate for competent QB play, would be more than willing to give a throw away 3rd round pick for Cousins, but who more than likely would be the team to offer even more than that, more than Denver, in order to secure Cousins.

Because the Jets ultimately know what we all know, which is they cannot sell their organization to Cousins in the same way that Denver can, despite the Bates connection.

That, IF, this scenario were that Cousins was a free agent, that the Jets would lose out on him to a team like Denver.

So ... in a situation where it's no longer about Cousins being free in an open market (because the Redskins have tagged him), that it's a situation where teams need to offer a draft pick in order to secure his contractual rights, the Jets would look at that as their only chance to win out and get Cousins. Thus, they would be willing to out bid Denver, stands to reason.

And that only means that the Jets would be the team most likely to start the landslide of a bidding war for Cousins, despite him being on a one-year tender. Not only do the Jets have the cap space for 28 or 34, they know that a LTC would spread the guaranteed dollars out over 5 years. And they would simply have to convince Cousins that they were worthy.


Bruce doesn't have to ensure that Cousins would agree to a LTC with the Jets before the fact of a trade, he can accept whatever he wants and let them deal with the negotiations.

It's all about Bruce selling that he'll send Cousins to his top choice.


So when Bruce says to Elway, "hey, I bet I can get a 2nd from the Jets" ... or better yet, if/when the Jets get desperate and do offer a 2nd, Bruce can tell Elway that he'll still agree with him and take the 3rd and Talib, despite getting a high draft pick bid from the Jets.

One, that reinforces to Elway that his cost would be at a value. It also ensures that Elway becomes an additional pressure source upon McCartney for compliance. It would also reassure McCartney and Cousins to feel like Bruce would honor Cousins "#1" team, that he still has his freedom of choice, while simultaneously still getting the LTC with the guaranteed dollar threshold he wants, by willing to sign his signature to a non-disclosure form and an affidavit.

If Bruce commits to them and agrees to not double cross Cousins, to not accept any last minute bids, and if Cousins/McCartney agree to sign and not double cross the Redskins by exercising their right to solicit offer sheets (if the transition tag was placed), then all parties would ideally agree to it by March 4th, in Indy.

Just lay it all out on the table.

So, yeah.


The tag won't hit the Redskins on their cap. There won't be this long drawn out period where the Redskins are unable to sign free agents for weeks while Cousins is sitting over in the corner. Cousins will want to be where he is wanted, not with the Redskins. Cousins will also recognize that the contract is the same in the end, be it on the tag and trade or otherwise as obtained in free agency.

Same contract, same first choice team, Cousins' requirements are met.

Elway will want to secure Cousins on a cheaper cost (3rd rounder) than allow a lesser Front office like the Jets to outbid him.


This is why locking into a deal at the Combine and signing a non-disclosure ensures that his bid wins (Elway) and it eliminates any last minute, 11th hour bids, from teams like the Jets or the Browns, who have picks to burn.


A 3rd for Elway also ensures he can claim victory on the trade by not losing his 1st round, or 2nd round picks, which will both be sold as the core pieces to add to the bringing in of Cousins. The 3rd would be seen as requisite based upon what the Skins paid for Alex Smith.


Precedent seems like a big thing in the NFL. Especially recent precedent in terms of cost (like draft picks) on trades. The fact that Smith cost a 3rd means it's fundamentally sound for the Redskins to ask for a 3rd for Cousins. Especially so when many people compare the two QBs in terms of skill and style. I disagree somewhat, I lean toward Cousins as superior, kind-of heavily in fact, but that's a different thread.



Cousins would not be "hamstringing" his new team, as many have argued, at the cost of a 3rd rounder. Cousins has nothing to do with that compensation. He has no say in that whatsoever. The trade compensation is between the Redskins and Denver only.

*
Again, is someone going to argue that the QBs available in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL Draft are going to be better than Cousins, Day 1?
Are we going to say that? Because that would be wholly incorrect, imo.


When you look at a 2018 3rd round pick in that kind of context, it puts into perspective of what Cousins is actually worth, versus what Bruce would be asking for compensation.

A 3rd is not a hefty price tag.
I might even ask folks, what round grade would you place on Cousins, as he is today, being an NFL vet, if he were placed into this years draft?

No mention of his contract size being much different, and larger, than a rookie contract, that is already understood and taken for granted, but just pure round grade on Cousins?

For me, personally, it far exceeds a 3rd rounder.
Cheap deal for Elway if you ask me. Elway's other alternative, don't give up the 3rd round and watch him go elsewhere, and Elway gets to continue to fart around with next Semian (sp), or Osweiler (sp), or whoever. *


In fact, when Bruce offers that the tag and trade could still be executed as drawn up, but only this time on the transition tag, for 28.73 instead of 34.47 on the franchise, Cousins will see that as his opportunity to give his new a "break," thus lessening what Elway would have to pay on year-one in guaranteed money.

Of course the LTC will average out to 26/27 AAV, or whatever it ends up being, but year one will have to be guaranteed at 28.73, but years 2 through 4 would probably have the base salary drop and the cap hit be like ... IDK, between 18 to 20 million. The signing bonus obviously spread out on the life of the deal.

All that means is that Elway once again can claim victory and say that in years 2 through 4, they can still be big players in FA because of how adeptly he structured Cousins new deal. And Cousins of course (by proxy of McCartney) will be ultimately enticed by the total guaranteed dollars on the deal. Which I've guesstimated at 90 million.

That's what is going to get Cousins to comply.

His only alternative would be to not sign the tag, which he won't, so it's moot.


And Bruce wants a balanced trade. Where the 3rd round pick from Denver offsets the 3rd he sent to KC for Smith. Bruce would want Talib to offset the addition of Fuller to KC in the Smith trade. Notwithstanding that Talib represents "Tampa True," so ... this whole thing, from the Elway and Shanny connection onto Cousins, to Tampa Talib and Bruce, just drips with symbolism.

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by Macro

(snip)

Macro, please read the link MTK posted.

Here

Basically there's no way the Skins can force Cousins to do anything. He's looking forward to a bidding war between teams that actually want him. There's no reason for him to trust the Redskins front office at this point or roll the dice a third year with injury or some other unforeseen, or to agree to any deal that takes draft picks away from the team he is going to.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

Macro, please read the link MTK posted.

Basically there's no way the Skins can force Cousins to do anything. He's looking forward to a bidding war between teams that actually want him. There's no reason for him to trust the Redskins front office at this point or roll the dice a third year with injury or some other unforeseen, or to agree to any deal that takes draft picks away from the team he is going to.

Tandler assumes the same fallacy I've read everywhere else.

If tagged with the franchise tag Cousins has only one choice, an A or B choice. Either sign it and become under contract, or not sign it and therefore damage his own very market.

That bidding war you're talking about doesn't occur if he doesn't sign the tag and self imposes himself into limbo. All he would be doing is collecting dust while the teams who want him, have to start signing other players and use their money elsewhere instead of upon him.

So, Cousins will sign the tag.


From that point forward, his one-year tender contract is the property of the Redskins. They can trade him to whoever and for whatever. But of course Bruce and Dan will tell him that they will send him to his favorite team, no worse for the wear. That he'll end up in the same place for the same contract.

And that the only thing that matters for Bruce and Dan is whatever they can come to agree upon with Elway for compensation.


And, as I contend, we already know which is his favorite team. But, ultimately that doesn't matter, be it Denver or Cleveland, or whoever.

The fact is that the contract that Cousins wants (the one that ballparks between 25/26/27 AAV and up 90 (+/-) guaranteed dollars) will be written by his most enamored suitor regardless if it was in open market free agency, or upon a tag and trade.


The whole notion that Cousins could hold the Redskins free agent spending hostage really doesn't stand up to the light. First, once he signs, he doesn't have a choice on the matter. So his compliance of signing the tag and detailing which team is his first choice ensures he ends up where he wants to be.

Likewise, as it has been pointed out time and again, IF the Redskins just let Cousins leave in free agency, ostensibly going the passive route and playing for the 2019 3rd round compensatory pick, the Redskins would STILL have to show restraint and not sign "much of anyone," in free agency to begin with.


The notion that tagging Cousins somehow leads to Cousins stilling in the corner refusing to talk to teams that are offering him 90 million in guaranteed money, that teams across the league hungry, thirsty and desperate for legit, proven, NFL QBs are all going to collude together to lowball the Redskins and offer only 6th or 7th round picks for compensation to obtain the contractual rights just isn't going to happen.


The team that wants Cousins and the team that Cousins wants will be one and the same.

A signed affidavit or other legal document produced by Eric Schaffer ensures that Bruce will deal Cousins to his favorite team. The same team that Cousins say so in Indy during the Combine, during the trade summit. That would be the in-principal aspect of the trade to nullify your point of Cousins/McCartney's reticence to broker a deal.

[MTK]

If the Skins pull it off I’ll say bravo

[Schneed10]

Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.

But one thought for you to consider. If you know that Kirk’s desired team is Denver, couldn’t Elway know that? Follow me here. If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?

If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.

Wondering your thoughts on that. Still, your position has caused me to reconsider my previously dismissive stance on the possibility. But I ultimately don’t like our chances for this simple reason: I don’t think Bruce Allen is half as smart as you. Welcome to the board.

[CRedskinsRule]

If the Skins are dumb enough to try it, KC will say thank you for the free money and sit on the sideline for a year and hit FA next year. Nothing he has done or said should make you think otherwise. He wants to hit Free Agency on his own terms. Meanwhile the Skins would be stuck with either trading Cousins at bargain basement prices, or keeping him on at the expense of a self imposed salary cap hell.

The only way it happens is if KC acts in good faith to give the Skins draft picks from the team he supposedly wants to lead to the superbowl.

It's really crazy how fandom clouds realism. Hopefully this Skins FO is more savvy then the Vinnie Cerrato FO.

[Schneed10]

I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.