26-27-60 QB formula

[Landry44]

Originally Posted by BuckSkin

Of those 9 QB's you listed, Mallett has the 8th best completion %. I thought that was his calling card, his "amazing" arm. Doesn't matter if he can throw an 80 yard pass if it's in the dirt.

Mallett had a 64% completion % last year and threw for 32.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Not hardly. Up until last year, Vick has been horrible as a QB.

Michael Vick: Career Stats at NFL.com

He had a grand total of one year where he threw for over 2,500 yards and had a QB rating over 78. (81)

I'm sorry, he's the DeAngelo Hall of the QB position. He's hyped up because fans see him avoiding tackles on ESPN and think that's the mark of a good QB.

Vick the running back on the other hand is very good. Too bad he plays the QB position.

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

You mean the same teams that led the league in rushing and had an above average defense? No, you're right. It was Vick and those ESPN highlights that carried them to glory...lol

It's funny, that basically the same team that Vick played with did so much better with Matt Ryan (11-5 in fact). Wonder why that is?

Child please.

Um what?

Vick was a horrible QB?

Beating the Packers at Lambeau to go to NFC championship game ring a bell?

Horrible.
2x Pro Bowl.
Horrible.
Winner.
Horrible.

Revisionist history Island must be a great place.

I used to live in ATL and Mike Vick wasthe team.
Ryan is part of a good team.

[GTripp0012]

I also don't feel like 60% should be the baseline for completion percentage. 62% is an average college completion percentage. If you're below 57%, you pretty much don't have the skill to complete passes. But 60% and 58% are both below the average. Neither is at 62%. So there's no reason that Mallett, Stanzi, and Kaepernick should "fail" in completion percentage while Gabbert "passes." Gabbert us higher, but below the average.

If you bumped up the baseline to 62%, only really great prospects would get past. And also, the only guy who would have passed the rule this year is McElroy.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BuckSkin

Of those 9 QB's you listed, Mallett has the 8th best completion %. I thought that was his calling card, his "amazing" arm. Doesn't matter if he can throw an 80 yard pass if it's in the dirt.

re: Mallett's accuracy, its not great, and should be treated as such on draft day. However, the raw completion percentage number is somewhat deflated by Mallett not playing his senior season, which would (theoretically) be one of his higher comp% seasons.

He's already being punished for coming out early by the games started total, so I would treat that 58% completion as a bottom end projection for him in the NFL. As in: he'll be at 58% or better as a pro. Which is what you want from a player.

[GTripp0012]

Devlin, Tolzien, TJ Yates all pass as well, and are all great late round prospects in the form of Greg McElroy.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Randy Moss 12, Chris Johnson 10, Frank Gore 6? Has anyone taken a wonderlic? I'm far from a genius and I could still score in the 20's if I was blind drunk. It's amazing how stupid some of these guys are.

I've taken some of the sample ones and I think the lowest that I've ever gotten was a 42. Went to high school in the sticks and only have 15 college credits. These guys float through college somehow...

[Landry44]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

re: Mallett's accuracy, its not great, and should be treated as such on draft day. However, the raw completion percentage number is somewhat deflated by Mallett not playing his senior season, which would (theoretically) be one of his higher comp% seasons.

He's already being punished for coming out early by the games started total, so I would treat that 58% completion as a bottom end projection for him in the NFL. As in: he'll be at 58% or better as a pro. Which is what you want from a player.

Ryan Mallett consistently throw passes that hits his wr in stride. He's accurate in and outside of the pocket.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Landry44

Ryan Mallett consistently throw passes that hits his wr in stride. He's accurate in and outside of the pocket.

That's what I saw from him THIS year. I also saw, in the past, an erratic but potentially accurate passer.

You'd have to assume, for lack of better information, that he's going to develop in the pros similar to how he developed in college. Which means, inaccuracies at the beginning of his career.

[30gut]

The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:

"Has there ever been a red-headed quarterback in the NFL who's really done well?" a coach asked one reporter last week. "It sounds idiotic, but is there any way that could be a factor? We've wondered."

From MMQB Peter King

Read more: Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault

Rotoworld points out that red-headed quarterbacks historically haven't been successful in the NFL. They cite the likes of Jeff Garcia and Todd Marinovich. Carson Palmer is also a red head, but I'm not sure if he helps the concern or goes against it.

Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.

[MTK]

Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.

[skinsfan69]

All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.

[Swarley]

just to back up your point:

Despite a decent streak in the last three drafts, NFL general managers haven't improved much in picking the most important player on the field. From 1980 to '95 (16 drafts), teams selected 35 first-round passers. Nine, from John Elway to Kerry Collins, became consistent long-term starters or stars. Ten, from Art Schlichter to Heath Shuler, had very little impact. The others either were middle-of-the-road players or were derailed by injuries.

From 1996 to 2010 (15 drafts), G.M.'s chose 36 first-round quarterbacks. Excluding Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, who just finished their rookie years, that leaves 34 QBs. Of those, 11 appear to be long-term starters or stars (if you include recent picks Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco), and eight appear to be busts or doomed by injury.

We'll call the bust rate 29% in the earlier group and 24% over the last 15 years, with 26% stars before to 32% now. It's a little better, but not the change you might expect from the information explosion of the last two decades, all the tools and analytics teams employ to determine if a prospect is the next Dan Marino or Dan McGwire. "Why is it still such an inexact science?" Harbaugh says. "Because there's still some variables you just can't measure."

Read more: Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault

[cdskins26]

The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.

He'd fit in well here as a WP member in the offseason.



Follow-up:


The search for the greatest ginger quarterback of all time | Kissing Suzy Kolber




Unbelievable, do a Google search for red-haired quarterbacks and check out the results for several pages. This is a huge issue apparently.

I say, draft Dalton.
red-haired quarterbacks - Google Search




Also,

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by cdskins26

The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.

Technically it's a very deep QB class but the thing that at least scares off many fans is the lack of High Floor High Ceiling types. In fact it scares people off every year. People here in Atlanta yelled at Dimitroff for taking Ryan over Dorsey. "Are you kidding me? The guys inaccurate. He throws to many picks. He can't even win the ACC! Build the trenches then draft a QB." Now people are all Matty Ice this Matty Ice that.

Raven fans thought Newsome had lost it when they traded up into the first round to take Flacco. "A spread QB from an FCS school? We're doomed."

Bottom line, unless you're drafting Andrew Luck or have built in the trenches for years with nothing to show for it like St. Louis your fans will yell at you for taking a QB. Lol, thats why Ram fans got on board with Bradford. While we were talking about the shoulder and the risk of injury the Ram fans were like "if we draft another freaking lineman I'm going to shoot myself."