Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[Son Of Man]

Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. (including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL)

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall (Incl. Young)

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall (after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers)

- 3 were won by Tom Brady (yes we know...drafted 199th overall)

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. (Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson)(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


Summary:

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

My hope:

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Son Of Man

Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. (including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL)

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall (Incl. Young)

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall (after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers)

- 3 were won by Tom Brady (yes we know...drafted 199th overall)

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. (Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson)(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


Summary:

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

My hope:

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.

Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Also I just want to add, does anyone think the Giants regret giving up two first and a third for Eli Manning? I mean for Gods sake the Chargers got 3 Pro Bowlers in that trade yet the Giants now have 2 Super Bowls.

No, no, and no.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Todd McShay thinks RG3 will either be a Redskin or a Cleveland Brown. Says he'd be surprised if he fell below the number 2 spot.

I think RGIII will be a Redskin too. Whether it be pick 2,3,4 or 6.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Fact is Eli didn't flop, they won two Super Bowls, so they don't regret it. There comes a time when you gotta take the risk. If you never take the risk, your reward will never be as high as you want. Sure the higher the risk the higher the potential failure, but that's better than hovering in mediocrities your whole life.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Fact is Eli didn't flop, they won two Super Bowls, so they don't regret it. There comes a time when you gotta take the risk. If you never take the risk, your reward will never be as high as you want. Sure the higher the risk the higher the potential failure, but that's better than hovering in mediocrities your whole life.

Now is not the time. We are in the middle of a rebuild. Sure you take risks, but you have to know when to take them.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Now is not the time. We are in the middle of a rebuild. Sure you take risks, but you have to know when to take them.

This is the time though. If last year, heck the last decade, is any indication it's that this team will go no where without a QB.

I can understand passing on Blaine Gabbert but in our division we need a QB to compete with the likes of Romo, Manning, and Vick. Griffin is capable of not only playing to their level but surpassing them.

Plus keep in mind QB's take time to develop. So say we get everything in place. Line, defense, receivers, running back. Then after all that we draft a QB. By the time that QB fully develops all those supporting players will be either near the end of their prime or past it. Pretty much every supporting position has a much quicker turnaround time then any rookie QB.

It is exponentially easier to find 2 Ryan Kerrigan's and a Leonard Hankerson then it is to find a franchise QB.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

This is the time though. If last year, heck the last decade, is any indication it's that this team will go no where without a QB.

I can understand passing on Blaine Gabbert but in our division we need a QB to compete with the likes of Romo, Manning, and Vick. Griffin is capable of not only playing to their level but surpassing them.

Plus keep in mind QB's take time to develop. So say we get everything in place. Line, defense, receivers, running back. Then after all that we draft a QB. By the time that QB fully develops all those supporting players will be either near the end of their prime or past it. Pretty much every supporting position has a much quicker turnaround time then any rookie QB.

It is exponentially easier to find 2 Ryan Kerrigan's and a Leonard Hankerson then it is to find a franchise QB.

Money shot. My thoughts exactly...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

It is exponentially easier to find 2 Ryan Kerrigan's and a Leonard Hankerson then it is to find a franchise QB.

Is it though? There are about 10-ish team that have that stability at quarterback and only one really (Pittsburgh) that drafts and develops a pass rusher every year and routinely finds pro bowl receivers in the third round. Maybe the sampling is inconsistent, but it would seem that it's much easier to find a top QB with a first round pick than it is to consistently hit on players at premium positions elsewhere.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

This is the time though. If last year, heck the last decade, is any indication it's that this team will go no where without a QB.

I can understand passing on Blaine Gabbert but in our division we need a QB to compete with the likes of Romo, Manning, and Vick. Griffin is capable of not only playing to their level but surpassing them. .

So let's just abandon that long term plan that could set us up for future just to blow it on a mere chance?...lol


I'm just glad you guys don't handle my finances. When you have everything set, you can take those types of gambles. When you are broke and scraping for money, you don't take those types of gambles. We are broke and scraping guys. This isn't a 1 player away from greatness team. This is a "still needing a lot of talent and depth" to be a contender on a regular basis.

If we had a little more depth and talent, I would have no problem going for that risk. Doing so now could set us back big time.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

We are broke and scraping guys.

Welcome to the dark side.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

So let's just abandon that long term plan that could set us up for future to come just to blow it on a mere chance?...lol


I'm just glad you guys don't handle my finances. When you have everything set, you can take those types of gambles. When you are broke and scraping for money, you don't take those types of gambles. We are broke and scraping guys. This isn't a 1 player away from greatness team. This is a "still needing a lot of talent depth" to be a contender on a regular basis.

If we had a little more depth and talent, I would have no problem going for that risk. Doing so now could set us back big time.

Getting a QB that will make you a contender for the next decade is not abandoning the long term plan especially when the net cost is two starters at best.

If anything not pulling the trigger on a prospect like Griffin is killing the long term plan. With scouting improving by leaps and bounds these diamond in the rough QB's are getting harder and harder to find so when you have a Griffin in your crosshairs you pull the trigger.

Like I said before by the time you're ready to pull the trigger on a QB all that depth and talent you built up will be on the backside of their career. And all we'll really have to show for passing on the chance to trade up for Griffin will be three or four solid starters, assuming we hit on all three of the picks it would cost for the trade up.

This is the NFC East. A division with 3 pro bowl QB's. You don't win it by spending years trying to recreate the hogs and having Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman handing off the ball to random Shanahan back 8b.

You want to talk about finances fine. RGIII is the Google IPO. Sure the $100 a share price is steep. However when it's at $700 a share three years later you'll be happy you invested.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Fact is Eli didn't flop, they won two Super Bowls, so they don't regret it. There comes a time when you gotta take the risk. If you never take the risk, your reward will never be as high as you want. Sure the higher the risk the higher the potential failure, but that's better than hovering in mediocrities your whole life.

To be clear, I doubt Beathard regrets trading up for Ryan Leaf (he took a risk after all), but that doesn't mean I would recommend he do it again.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Fact is Eli didn't flop, they won two Super Bowls, so they don't regret it. There comes a time when you gotta take the risk. If you never take the risk, your reward will never be as high as you want. Sure the higher the risk the higher the potential failure, but that's better than hovering in mediocrities your whole life.

They would have won 4 with Rivers and those picks they traded to San Diego