2011 NFL Draft

[wilsowilso]

Originally Posted by Hog1

Does that say anything about the relationship of "the numbers" and winning?

Bradshaw isn't a very good case study.

That Pittsburgh team had nine players on it who now have a bust in Canton.

Sage Rosenfels or Gus Frerotte would most likely have won multiple rings leading that dynasty of talent.

[SmootSmack]

I think at best Kaepernick is a low first rounder, but probably more likely high to mid 2nd round. Still, all it takes is one...

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by wilsowilso

Bradshaw isn't a very good case study.

That Pittsburgh team had nine players on it who now have a bust in Canton.

Sage Rosenfels or Gus Frerotte would most likely have won multiple rings leading that dynasty of talent.

If Bradshaw had only done it once......perhaps
It will be difficult to craft an argument against 8 AFC Central titles and 4 Superbowls.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Hog1

Does that say anything about the relationship of "the numbers" and winning?

How could you pass up the chance for a great Charlie Sheen reference?

Terry Bradshaw stats?

Duh WINNING!

[BuckSkin]

30gut, you've posted some of the most comprehensive QB stats here. What is your take on Kaepernick? I thought he looked good at the Sr. Bowl, but honestly that is the only time I've seen him play.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Hog1

Does that say anything about the relationship of "the numbers" and winning?

I basically look at it like this. The equivalent of a QB today posting a rating of 90+ is like a QB back in the mid 70's and early 80's posting a rating of at least 80.

In fairness to Bradshaw he came from an era where no one knew how to design a pass play. Corners were allowed to molest receivers to the point where they would probably get fined in this day and age. He also might have the best QB rating in Super Bowls of any other QB that played in more then one (112.8 Rating).

Still it's always funny to have people talking about how great Bradshaw was because he was on 4 Super Bowl teams when the fact of the matter is he was an average QB at best for more then half of his career who's team was successful mainly due to their defense and running game.

If there ever was a modern day equivelent of Bradshaw it has to be Sanchez. The guy is so up and down during the regular season that the only reason he gets to the postseason in the first place is due to the fact that he plays on a team with an elite defense and running game. However once he gets to the postseason he suddenly becomes an elite QB.

[Dirtbag59]

Senior Bowl Prospect: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
by Parks Smith on Jan 26, 2011 10:40 AM EST in Redskins 2011 Draft

Several sources have confirmed that the Redskins met with Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick yesterday "for an inordinate amount of time," and have had their eyes on him all week. Kaepernick is a 6’4, 220 lbs QB that lead the Wolfpack to a 13-1 season, a share of the WAC title, and a win over Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by BuckSkin

KaepKrusader, what have you seen or heard about this kid that made you change your mind. For the past couple of months you made no apologies about Miller then Hudson with the second rd.

BuckSkin, I am flattered you have followed my draft selections so closely. I would love Miller but he will probably be gone by #10. Everyone is saying Quinn now, and I would be okay with that.

We do need a center and I originally picked it because it is a huge need. I think Rabach is essentially garbage at this point. I think we can get a ZB scheme center in the draft or free agency much easier than we can a good QB who could best fit our system. The only FA QB I would want to bring in would be Kyle Orton and I'm not confident that will happen.

I have become enamored with Kaepernick after watching his tape and game film. Here are the things I like about him:
1. He is a 4 year starter, so he has experience.

2. He has improved most of his numbers every year he has been at Nevada, especially focusing on his senior year which was his most outstanding.

Stats Overview Passing
YEAR - CMP- ATT -YDS -CMP% - YPA -LNG- TD-INT-SACK-RAT
2007 - 133 - 247 - 2175 - 53.8 - 8.81 - 74 - 19 - 3 - 18 - 150.77
2008 - 208 - 383 - 2849 - 54.3 - 7.44 - 75 - 22 - 7 - 16 - 132.10
2009 - 166 - 282 - 2052 - 58.9 - 7.28 - 56 - 20 - 6 - 13 - 139.14
2010 - 233 - 359 - 3022 - 64.9 - 8.42 - 79 - 21 - 8 - 10 - 150.46

3. He is not a head case. This kid seems to have his head on straight and want to excel.

4. He is very speedy and athletic. His ability to be able to break containment and bootleg out or pick up yards with his legs is a major plus. He can extend the play which is a huge thing for QB's to be able to do. Look how well Rapistberger does extending plays. Kaepernick reminds me of a young McNabb in some ways when I see him roll out in a bootleg or scramble around. Kaepernick was second fastest QB at the combine with 4.53 forty time. He threw with great accuracy with 36 of 38 passing.

5. He has a cannon for an arm. Everyone that has seen him throw says his arm is huge. And his accuracy has increased EVERY SEASON. He's been clocked throwing the ball 59 mph which is faster than Cam Newton or Ryan Mallet.

6. At 6'6' he is very tall and can see the field well. Many detractors say he can not read defenses well, and I am not going to say he is the best at it, but it is something I think he can improve on. Another thing detractors say is he played in a modified pistol offense which is not the best for a pro style in the NFL. However, most QB's at the collegiate level don't come in having perfected the pro style offense.

Sincerely,

The KaepKrusader

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Senior Bowl Prospect: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
by Parks Smith on Jan 26, 2011 10:40 AM EST in Redskins 2011 Draft

Several sources have confirmed that the Redskins met with Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick yesterday "for an inordinate amount of time," and have had their eyes on him all week. Kaepernick is a 6’4, 220 lbs QB that lead the Wolfpack to a 13-1 season, a share of the WAC title, and a win over Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.

Why not honestly?

[Lotus]

KaepKrusader, what do you think about the idea that we already have a center - Kory L. Kory L. might be at his best at center. What we actually need is a guard. What think ye?

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I think at best Kaepernick is a low first rounder, but probably more likely high to mid 2nd round. Still, all it takes is one...

Very few QB's make that JP Losman like jump to the middle of first round after being considered early 2nd round picks. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of these guys out of the Dalton, Ponder, Kapernick group lasted until round 3, maybe even as late as the 4th round.

I mean if any QB should have been a 2nd round pick last year Colt McCoy was it. Yet somehow he lasted until the 3rd round. I also remember people talking about Chris Simms before his draft and how he might sneak into the 1st (he ended up being the last pick of the third round). My boy Charlie was also given a second round grade by numerous draft outlets (he ended up being selected in the third).

Kaepernick seems different though. I think his physical gifts are enticing enough that he's not going to last long in the second round. Dalton will go in the second if theres an Andy Reid type guy that thinks he can develop him, otherwise he'll fall as well. Ponder I could easily see lasting through the second and most of the third, mainly due to concerns about numerous injuries.

Also keep in mind that a lot of these second round grade guys are going to have to compete for the attention of teams that might be able to pick a falling Locker or Mallet in round 2.

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

I basically look at it like this. The equivalent of a QB today posting a rating of 90+ is like a QB back in the mid 70's and early 80's posting a rating of at least 80.

In fairness to Bradshaw he came from an era where no one knew how to design a pass play. Corners were allowed to molest receivers to the point where they would probably get fined in this day and age. He also might have the best QB rating in Super Bowls of any other QB that played in more then one (112.8 Rating).

Still it's always funny to have people talking about how great Bradshaw was because he was on 4 Super Bowl teams when the fact of the matter is he was an average QB at best for more then half of his career who's team was successful mainly due to their defense and running game.

If there ever was a modern day equivelent of Bradshaw it has to be Sanchez. The guy is so up and down during the regular season that the only reason he gets to the postseason in the first place is due to the fact that he plays on a team with an elite defense and running game. However once he gets to the postseason he suddenly becomes an elite QB.

If you are saying that TB...NBA'd it during much of the regular season and delivered in the playoffs and SB when the chips were down to bring home the Lombardi....I could agree.
If not I would suggest the relationship between stats and winning is not or at least "was not" all that..as TB made an HOF and record breaking habit of under-achieving his ass into multiple division championships and SB wins.

[SmootSmack]

Somebody at work, and I can't remember who-think it might have been Trevor Matich-has been hyping Kaepernick for almost two years now. I don't know, I just don't see it. But maybe I just haven't seen enough of him.

[CultBrennan59]

I would respect Kaepernicks game more if he did these great numbers against a conference that was good, not the WAC, you know who also put great numbers against the WAC..Pineapple Jesus. On a similar note who was the last good WAC QB in the NFL?

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Somebody at work, and I can't remember who-think it might have been Trevor Matich-has been hyping Kaepernick for almost two years now. I don't know, I just don't see it. But maybe I just haven't seen enough of him.

I can understand hyping him up this offseason. Last offseason though, not so much.

Originally Posted by CultBrennan59

I would respect Kaepernicks game more if he did these great numbers against a conference that was good, not the WAC, you know who also put great numbers against the WAC..Pineapple Jesus. On a similar note who was the last good WAC QB in the NFL?

I get your concern, especially since I have it to, but I think we weigh competition levels way more then we should. A lot of people don't realize that a lot of quality football players are going to these mid major programs like Boise State, Fresno State, and even Nevada. In fact Fresno State's coach has an anybody, anytime, anywhere policy when it comes to scheduling yet they get turned down constantly because college football is a "year long playoff" that lets you choose who you want to play and most schools across the country would rather play FCS schools then mid majors like Fresno.

Fresno State is 12-14 against BCS teams since 2000, which has given birth to Hill's battle cry: Anybody, anytime, anywhere.

We're also in a day and age where we've seen Appalachian State beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Boise State beating Oklahoma in a BcS bowl game. Joe Flacco is among the best young QB's in the game despite playing at an FCS school.

Anyway the point of all this soapbox ranting is the possibility (not the fact) that someone like Kaepernick was overlooked when he was 17 or 18 by the major schools and in 4 years at Nevada has taken his physical skill set and turned himself into a quality QB. If that's so then the strength of schedule should be an afterthought. At the very least he has intangibles that coaches love. Maybe not as good as Tebow but at least in the same ballpark.

Either way I won't know how I truly feel about Kaepernick (and Dalton/Ponder/Stanzi) until draft day. If Shanahan or some other QB guru takes him then thats a pretty good indication that he could turn into the real deal.