Redskins Reconstruction: Quarterbacks

[30gut]

I still don't see how Alex Smith/Bruce Gradkowski are better option then Tarvaris Jackson or Troy Smith.

And when it comes to Rex I would rather give Matt Lienart or John Beck a shot then go with Rex Grossman.

[skinsfaninok]

30GUT

I'd rather have Vince Young than those guys seriously

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

I've given Campbell more chances because I've seen he can play. He had a great year in Oakland...better than our QBs..

Great year? Got the numbers to back that up? Anybody still thinking JC is anything other than a backup should be examined.

[MTK]

JC was 7-5 as starter for the Raiders, can't hate on that.

[juskins]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Id be up for bringing him in over both of them too. The only reason Id be up for A. Smith over Grossman is like someone said b4, upside. I think we saw what we got with Rexy in this offense at the end of the year. I really couldnt guage Smith in this offense, but jesus christ San Fran has been HORRIBLE for a long time. He's due for a change of scenery, he would be next to nothing to bring in. Little risk.

But, what Grossman showed us is that a younger guy and familiarity with the offense is better than the Brunell's of the football world.

Tell me I'm wrong, but I got the feeling McNabb was not being honest with us when given his chances at QB for us. I had this feeling he was holding back (purposely) because I saw him play better while in Philly. I know, he was in the same offense for 11 seasons and should have played better.

I wish the Skins can learn a lesson here. That being enough with retread QBs, they usually don't work out.

I think Grossman is the best option right now for the Skins. He knows the offense. Bringing in someone else at QB is like starting all over again. Far too many growing pains. Solve the problems at NT, Center and RT with the draft.

Get the best LBs available in FA. Stop kidding ourselves, we don't have enough picks for our needs. Picking a first or second round QB is a luxury we cannot afford.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

JC was 7-5 as starter for the Raiders, can't hate on that.

Not if you don't mind not having a good enough record to get into the playoff. I want a QB that can take me there, not NEAR there. This ain't horseshoes, close doesn't count.

PS Why do all of you guys want Smith so bad? He has more career INT than TDs and his best career completion percentage just barely ekes over 60%. Not to mention his best career QB rating is 80.

I'm sorry but he IS the west coast Jason Campbell. And if you are okay with a .500 record or slightly over at best, go for it, but I want someone that can take me to the promise land. At least Rex has three years in this system.

Why isn't anyone talking about Kyle Orton? I've been telling everyone all offseason we need to bring him in here. He is WAY better than any of the GoodWill QBs you guys are trying to donate to the team.

Reality check. Established, quality FAs or youthful draftees are the only two ways we should be moving here. Anything else is just sideways at best, but more likely backwards. Kaepernick, Dalton, or Ponder from the draft with a combo of Kyle Orton would put this team in the right direction.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

Not if you don't mind not having a good enough record to get into the playoff. I want a QB that can take me there, not NEAR there. This ain't horseshoes, close doesn't count.

PS Why do all of you guys want Smith so bad? He has more career INT than TDs and his best career completion percentage just barely ekes over 60%. Not to mention his best career QB rating is 80.

I'm sorry but he IS the west coast Jason Campbell. And if you are okay with a .500 record or slightly over at best, go for it, but I want someone that can take me to the promise land. At least Rex has three years in this system.

Why isn't anyone talking about Kyle Orton? I've been telling everyone all offseason we need to bring him in here. He is WAY better than any of the GoodWill QBs you guys are trying to donate to the team.

Reality check. Established, quality FAs or youthful draftees are the only two ways we should be moving here. Anything else is just sideways at best, but more likely backwards. Kaepernick, Dalton, or Ponder from the draft with a combo of Kyle Orton would put this team in the right direction.

Dude I've said the same things, Orton is way better than Smith, look at record and stats not even close.. Some want smith because he was a former number 1 pick that "may" pan out somewhere else.. No thanks, the guy sucks plain and simple. He was overrated in college and the 9ers to the bait.

[SmootSmack]

I feel like I inadvertently created a monster with the Alex Smith speculation I started a couple of months back. Let me repeat, there's no official rumor tying the Redskins to Smith.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I feel like I inadvertently created a monster with the Alex Smith speculation I started a couple of months back. Let me repeat, there's no official rumor tying the Redskins to Smith.

Now you've really done it lol

[SmootSmack]

From KC Joyner "The Football Scientist" last summer

n Malcolm Gladwell's brilliant book "Outliers," he makes the case that while there are many factors that go into whether or not a person will be successful, the overriding factor seems to be opportunity. Gladwell shows how getting a lucky break and landing multiple long-term gigs in Hamburg, Germany, for example, gave the Beatles an opportunity to put in the necessary hours to hone their skills to an elite level.

He also notes how Bill Gates benefited greatly from the state-of-the-art computer lab his high school installed in 1968. Gladwell said that Gates admitted he was probably one of the few people in the entire world with access to the type of computer he was able to start using when he was 13 years old.

This mindset and focus on opportunity can also be applied to the case of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. The official word coming from the 49ers is that Smith will be the starter in 2010, but their frequent use of words like "confidence" and "comfortable", along with Jed York's comment that "we believe in Alex," combine to make it sound like they are at some level hesitant to give Smith more opportunities.

The odd part about this is there are multiple metric and statistical reasons to think that Smith is already among the top 50 percent of quarterbacks in the NFL.

Let's start with his performance in the passer rating category. Smith was able to post a rating of 88 or better in six of his 11 games last season. If we look at the rest of the league, we find that only 16 of the 32 qualifying quarterbacks (14 passes per game being the bar to rank to as a qualifier) bettered this total, but that doesn't take into account that every other quarterback ranking ahead of him on that list played in at least 14 games.

If we prorate Smith's percentage of games with an 88 or better mark (54.5 percent) over a 16-game season, it equates to roughly nine games. There were only 11 passers with more 88-plus games last year and that doesn't take into account that Smith could improve upon that mark as he develops his skills.

Smith also fared quite well in various passing yards per attempt (YPA) metric categories last season. His 13.4 deep pass (balls thrown 20-29 yards downfield) YPA ranked 11th in the league and placed him slightly behind Donovan McNabb (13.6) and slightly ahead of Peyton Manning (13.1).

It gets even better for Smith when looking at his 2009 bomb pass numbers (a bomb pass being an aerial thrown 30-plus yards downfield). Smith's 25.3 YPA mark here was the best in the league. There is a caveat in that Smith did throw only 11 of these passes, but it still bodes extremely well for what his statistics in this area could look like over the course of an entire season.

Even in the areas where he struggled last year, there is more than a little reason to believe he could show immediate significant improvement. The most compelling of these is his short pass totals.

The bad news on this front is that Smith's 5.4 mark in short pass YPA ranked 31st in the league last season, but that needs to be put into some perspective. The median short pass YPA last season was 6.4 yards, so adding merely one yard of YPA here would move Smith from near the bottom of the league to right in the middle. (It is also worth noting the three quarterbacks who posted the 6.4 median short pass YPA mark in 2009 -- Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Manning.)

This is notable because it wasn't a lack of accuracy or even completions that stunted Smith's short pass YPA. His 75.7 percent short pass success rate (a metric that divides completions and defensive penalty pass plays into short pass attempts) ranked 16th in the league, or right in the aforementioned middle.

So if Smith's issue wasn't completions, what caused the short pass woes? There were multiple problems but one primary cause was Michael Crabtree. Crabtree gained only 169 yards on 39 short passes last year -- that's only 4.3 YPA. That total ranked him 85th of 88 qualifying receivers. Given Crabtree's superior college resume on short passes, it would come as a shock if he didn't see a huge jump in this number in 2010. If that happens, it alone could probably account for the half-yard improvement Smith needs in this area.

What all of this means is that Smith may already be in the midst of his Beatles/Hamburg or Gates/computer lab phase. If that is the case, it is worth noting one of Gladwell's other success components, which is the 10,000-hour rule. Numerous studies show that true mastery of a field does not occur until one puts in 10,000 hours of work within it.

The frequent changes made to the 49ers' offensive coaching staff during Smith's first five years in the league mean that he probably hasn't reached the necessary 10,000-hour benchmark under the current coaching regime. The numbers say it would behoove the 49ers to do all they can to get him to that mark as soon as possible. If they do, they might end up with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

From KC Joyner "The Football Scientist" last summer

n Malcolm Gladwell's brilliant book "Outliers," he makes the case that while there are many factors that go into whether or not a person will be successful, the overriding factor seems to be opportunity. Gladwell shows how getting a lucky break and landing multiple long-term gigs in Hamburg, Germany, for example, gave the Beatles an opportunity to put in the necessary hours to hone their skills to an elite level.

He also notes how Bill Gates benefited greatly from the state-of-the-art computer lab his high school installed in 1968. Gladwell said that Gates admitted he was probably one of the few people in the entire world with access to the type of computer he was able to start using when he was 13 years old.

This mindset and focus on opportunity can also be applied to the case of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. The official word coming from the 49ers is that Smith will be the starter in 2010, but their frequent use of words like "confidence" and "comfortable", along with Jed York's comment that "we believe in Alex," combine to make it sound like they are at some level hesitant to give Smith more opportunities.

The odd part about this is there are multiple metric and statistical reasons to think that Smith is already among the top 50 percent of quarterbacks in the NFL.

Let's start with his performance in the passer rating category. Smith was able to post a rating of 88 or better in six of his 11 games last season. If we look at the rest of the league, we find that only 16 of the 32 qualifying quarterbacks (14 passes per game being the bar to rank to as a qualifier) bettered this total, but that doesn't take into account that every other quarterback ranking ahead of him on that list played in at least 14 games.

If we prorate Smith's percentage of games with an 88 or better mark (54.5 percent) over a 16-game season, it equates to roughly nine games. There were only 11 passers with more 88-plus games last year and that doesn't take into account that Smith could improve upon that mark as he develops his skills.

Smith also fared quite well in various passing yards per attempt (YPA) metric categories last season. His 13.4 deep pass (balls thrown 20-29 yards downfield) YPA ranked 11th in the league and placed him slightly behind Donovan McNabb (13.6) and slightly ahead of Peyton Manning (13.1).

It gets even better for Smith when looking at his 2009 bomb pass numbers (a bomb pass being an aerial thrown 30-plus yards downfield). Smith's 25.3 YPA mark here was the best in the league. There is a caveat in that Smith did throw only 11 of these passes, but it still bodes extremely well for what his statistics in this area could look like over the course of an entire season.

Even in the areas where he struggled last year, there is more than a little reason to believe he could show immediate significant improvement. The most compelling of these is his short pass totals.

The bad news on this front is that Smith's 5.4 mark in short pass YPA ranked 31st in the league last season, but that needs to be put into some perspective. The median short pass YPA last season was 6.4 yards, so adding merely one yard of YPA here would move Smith from near the bottom of the league to right in the middle. (It is also worth noting the three quarterbacks who posted the 6.4 median short pass YPA mark in 2009 -- Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Manning.)

This is notable because it wasn't a lack of accuracy or even completions that stunted Smith's short pass YPA. His 75.7 percent short pass success rate (a metric that divides completions and defensive penalty pass plays into short pass attempts) ranked 16th in the league, or right in the aforementioned middle.

So if Smith's issue wasn't completions, what caused the short pass woes? There were multiple problems but one primary cause was Michael Crabtree. Crabtree gained only 169 yards on 39 short passes last year -- that's only 4.3 YPA. That total ranked him 85th of 88 qualifying receivers. Given Crabtree's superior college resume on short passes, it would come as a shock if he didn't see a huge jump in this number in 2010. If that happens, it alone could probably account for the half-yard improvement Smith needs in this area.

What all of this means is that Smith may already be in the midst of his Beatles/Hamburg or Gates/computer lab phase. If that is the case, it is worth noting one of Gladwell's other success components, which is the 10,000-hour rule. Numerous studies show that true mastery of a field does not occur until one puts in 10,000 hours of work within it.

The frequent changes made to the 49ers' offensive coaching staff during Smith's first five years in the league mean that he probably hasn't reached the necessary 10,000-hour benchmark under the current coaching regime. The numbers say it would behoove the 49ers to do all they can to get him to that mark as soon as possible. If they do, they might end up with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

He couldn't do anything under Norv so he still sucks imo.. sorry I just won't be convinced, rather have JC

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

He couldn't do anything under Norv so he still sucks imo.. sorry I just won't be convinced, rather have JC

jeez he was only with Turner for one year and it was just his 2nd season in the league. I think he showed a lot of improvement under Norv from year 1 to year 2.

49ers quarterback Alex Smith struggled when Norv Turner left in 2007 - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

[MTK]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

Not if you don't mind not having a good enough record to get into the playoff. I want a QB that can take me there, not NEAR there. This ain't horseshoes, close doesn't count.

The Raiders went from 5-11 to 8-8, and on top of that went 6-0 in the division. Pretty nice improvement if you ask me. JC was a big part of that. Give him some credit.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

jeez he was only with Turner for one year and it was just his 2nd season in the league. I think he showed a lot of improvement under Norv from year 1 to year 2.

49ers quarterback Alex Smith struggled when Norv Turner left in 2007 - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

So now that he's in his 7th season, whats his excuse? Guy sucks man period.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

The Raiders went from 5-11 to 8-8, and on top of that went 6-0 in the division. Pretty nice improvement if you ask me. JC was a big part of that. Give him some credit.

I did. Credit that he can make a team mediocre, average, run of the mill, however you want to say it. Until Jason Campbell or Alex Smith prove they can make a playoff run and actually do something other than play averagely, then I maintain what I have said about them... Just because a guy was a #1 overall pick, or has had a different offensive system every year doesn't mean they will be a great QB. I think they have had the opportunity to show what they have and while they are serviceable, they have not proved they are a top level QB capable of taking a team to the next level. Is Smith paying you to do his PR?