Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by offiss

Everyone?????

The fact is and I am going to sum this whole debate up here and now, Portis is nothing more than a third down change of pace type back, or a big time back in Denver take your pick, I believe Portis's problem now is the fact that he starting to realize he wasnt as good as he, or a lot of others thought he was coming out of Denver, now he has his tail between his legs because he knows he can not take the pounding of tough running. He needs to be with Denver where he can run in space for big gains, like when he amassed almost 500 yds and 7-8 TD's against none existent defenses like he did against KC twice a year when he was in Denver. We were had by Shanahan, he saw Gibbs coming a mile away, just like the Jags and Brunell.

As for Bailey, yes he wanted out but we were under no obligation to give him away as we did, we could have franchised him, received 2 #1 picks, and kept our 2nd rd pick we threw in with the Portis deal, that would have brought back a whole lot of talent if utilized properly, lets start with a RB in that draft by the name of Stephen Jackson, I think he would have fit in with Gibbs type of pound the ball running game, we could have drafted some O-linemen to help him out as well with all those picks, maybe we wouldn't be in such a mess right now with our o-line if we properly addressed it and built real quality depth. What am I thinking Portis is worth all that and more, now I am making myself laugh!

3 words for Portis, DENVER, SYSTEM, BACK!

First, I don't know of many 3rd down backs who have racked up 3,000+ yards in Denver in 2 years and 2,800+ yards in Washington in 2 years.

Second, I stand corrected. You were among the minority who opposed the Portis trade. But you were also the same guy who cited Tatum Bell as evidence that we got hosed in the Portis trade and for the proposition that Portis is a system back. http://http://www.redskinswarpath.co...tis#post113951How is Tatum Bell doing these days? Didn't the Broncos have to sign some big-name back even though they can just plug guys like Quentin Griffin into the lineup? How is Quentin Griffin doing these days?

Third, who offered us 2 1st rounders for Bailey? Or are you making that up?

[Big C]

i prefer betts but im content with portis starting as well. id atleast like to see betts get more carries, around 10 a game would be fine rather than 2 or 3 a game

[offiss]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

You are entitled to your opinion. You are also entitled to post pretty much whatever you want to post on this site. You also might be one fine human being. So, I hope you don't take this post as me getting all bent out of shape, but I cannot understand why exactly you post here.

All of your posts are the same (i.e., bitch about our players, make jokes about Gibbs' senility, etc.). Your take on the state of the team is almost always the same. I personally don't understand how people can never change their opinions about issues that are constantly changing (like the state of the team).

I have personally called out the coaches and various players. I have also given the coaches and the players. I call it like I see it. I think you, on the other hand, call things before you even see them. Ever since Ramsey was benched by Gibbs, you haven't been quite the same.

Again, I don't mean to personally attack you. I just can't get over how your posts are like a broken record.

I can appreciate difference in opinion and not making debate personnel, well said.

You are correct that I repeat myself, I do say the same things over and over, I am tired of listening to me say the same things after almost 4 years, but there is a reason, we continue to do the same things over and over as a team, nothing changes, the same problems that were there 4 seasons ago are still there, and Gibbs ain't changing, his first season we were all wondering what he was doing in the second half of games with the constant conservative 3 and outs putting the burden of winning in the defenses hands, we all chalked it up to him getting re acclimated back into the NFL after 10 years off, well he hasn't, and he isn't going to, so if I sound like a broken record it's because I have been watching one in Gibbs for the last 4 seasons.

If I rip our team it is because I want to see it fixed, I enjoy winning probably more than most, that is why I am so hard on Gibbs, I hate knowing we are spinning our wheels as an organization, I want us to right the ship and get back to our winning tradition, but patting people on the back, and sugar coating reality only prolongs the inevitable, I don't feel sorry for these guys they make way to much money for me to shed a tear. It's tough love, just because you discipline your child doesn't mean you don't love he, or she, it means you want the very best for them and if they have to be punished to get the point across then so be it, they will thank you later in life. Same here until they realize Gibbs is just flat out lost as a coach this problem is not getting fixed so long as he is in charge, I don't care how many assistant head coaches and head coaches and so on he hires and gives an important title to them, it's over as far as he is concerned, hire a real coach and a real GM and let Gibbs walk around in the stands and shake hands with everyone on game day because that is about his value to this franchise at this point and time, he can be the face of the Skins just not a decision maker. It's over Joe, thank you very much for the 80's!!

[offiss]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

First, I don't know of many 3rd down backs who have racked up 3,000+ yards in Denver in 2 years and 2,800+ yards in Washington in 2 years.

Second, I stand corrected. You were among the minority who opposed the Portis trade. But you were also the same guy who cited Tatum Bell as evidence that we got hosed in the Portis trade and for the proposition that Portis is a system back. http://http://www.redskinswarpath.co...tis#post113951How is Tatum Bell doing these days? Didn't the Broncos have to sign some big-name back even though they can just plug guys like Quentin Griffin into the lineup? How is Quentin Griffin doing these days?

Third, who offered us 2 1st rounders for Bailey? Or are you making that up?

Please, to address your first point, your right not many backs in Denver were even qualified to be third down back's in this league, but they rack up 1500 yards running there only to be never heard from again once they leave. That should tell you what that system is to an average back, Take a look at Portis's numbers against the Chiefs alone when he was in Denver he compiled astronomical numbers against them and remember they couldn't stop anyone. You may not know this but I wanted us to draft Portis ahead of Betts but Denver nailed him a few spots ahead of us, I thought he would make an excellent change of pace back who could give you big play ability but would be a 10 to 15 carry a game type back, my biggest complaint about Portis is really not his fault, I can't blame the guy for taking 52 mil to play for us I know I would have, the problem is our stupidity of not recognizing what he really is, not to mention Gibbs really needed a big back to play smash mouth football, yes gibbs in the past has had a lot of success with smaller backs but it was always as I pointed out limited situational type backs, Portis has proven he can't take the beating game to game.

As for Tatum, I was never a big fan of Tatum Bell, but I did use him as an example of what a basic nobody like Bell can do in that system, he kicked our ass when we went there and out played Portis, my point with Bell was Denver can plug in and average at best back and make him look great even Bell, heck they made Ron Dayne look like a decent back and he's horrible. Portis on the other hand had talent which was perfect for Denver, a very fast RB who could take the ball to the house, look at his yards per carry since he's arrived he's gone backwards since Denver, he's still young he just is not a smash mouth type RB, he needs to be used in space and we really don't do that.

You cited 2 X-Denver backs and asked how they are doing? Does anyone really know, or care? But you forgot one more that they got rid of, Clinton Portis, how's he doing these day's?

As for Bailey, my point about the draft picks was we were going to franchise him which will render 2 #1 picks to whom ever signs him which someone would have paid, Bailey as you well know is highly regarded as the top CB in the league, at least at that time he was. We never franchised him that I can remember to actually obtain offers but I don't think I am being outlandish in saying we would have received top price [2#1's] if we did franchise him, so I based those picks on the assumption that he would have brought back a nice draft, I believe I would have been right in assuming that, but you never know?

[dgack]

Hey, look, in my mind, it speaks volumes to look at Denver and what they are able to do with RB's because the way they focus on running the ball is precisely what we want and need to be doing. They may seem bad now, but they are running the kind of offense that's going to allow Cutler to be a successful QB.

So if Denver's system is what made Portis great (and I don't think that's entirely true; he's been far more successful than any other back to leave Denver, probably in history) -- I think we should be asking ourselves how we can get closer to that kind of system where a guy like Ladell Betts can look "great" and we aren't just rolling the dice on franchise RB's, because it's increasingly clear that the LT's and Larry Johnsons of the world are rarities.

Selvin Young is a nobody, and he looked pretty good tonight out there for Denver. In his first NFL start he peeled off an 18-yard rush, which is only a yard longer than CP's long on the season. That just doesn't make any sense to me. I know our line is shredded, but I'm having a hard time believing that we couldn't find a guy on this team who has a good chance of breaking one every now and then.

Maybe it isn't Ladell, maybe it's Rock. I have no idea. All I know is the current run game approach (i.e., run Portis 20 times and average about 3 yards a carry) isn't really working.

[SmootSmack]

What's really impressive about Shanahan is how he's won three Super Bowls with three different running backs....oh wait

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

True enough that Selvin Young had a nice run, but he also averaged 3.8 yards per carry last night. Moreover, since Portis left Denver, exactly how many 1,500 yard rushers has Denver had? Zero. Since Portis left Denver, exactly how many Pro Bowlers has Denver had? Zero. Denver has gone through a whole host of backs in an attempt to find a feature back and guess what? Denver hasn't found a feature back. They had to sign a big name free agent in his late twenties with a drug problem to a big deal. So the idea that Denver can plug anyone into their system and he will become some huge stud is simply a myth.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

I posted this in another thread, but I am also posting it here because it is appropriate.

Offensive lines in Seattle, St. Louis, KC and NYJ are having an awful time opening running lanes for their backs. And, to no surprise, Shawn Alexander, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Thomas Jones are having a really hard time running the ball. Did all of those guys suddenly lose their talent or desire to win? No and the same is true of Portis.

If Portis had not been injured in 2006 making an all-out effort to tackle a guy, we wouldn't be talking about Portis having lost it. We would simply be saying that Portis, like Jackson, Alexander, Johnson, and Jones is a victim of circumstance. To be honest, it kind of makes me nauseous to trash a guy like Portis who goes all out on every play (and is worse for the wear for it).

I do appreciate the stats and thought that you have put into this thread dgack. Your posts have been among the most coherent and best-supported on this site in the past week or so. But, putting the stats aside, are you honestly seeing the O-line doing a good job opening lanes? If so, why is Betts rushing for under 3 yards per carry? I realize that Betts needs to find a rhythm, but less than 3 yards per carry (the worst of his career)? So Portis is having the worst year (ypc-wise) and it is because he is washed up, meanwhile Betts is averaging a full ypc less than Portis and he is a victim of circumstance (i.e., not getting the ball enough and playing behind a poor o-line)?

Seriously, Washington fans are almost never pleased with who is playing. They almost always want the "other" guy, even if the current starter guy holds the franchise record for most rushing yards in a season. And the worst of it all is those same people are the ones who complain about the lack of stability, the player turnover, and "little Danny's free agent spending sprees." Give me a -------- break.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

[over the mountain]

MTReskinsfan - yeah i agree with ya, our coaching approach to the game is messed up.

For gibbs smashmouth, protect the ball, control the clock football to work we need a strong O-line and solid runningbacks . . . unfortunately our O-line got the injury-bug and our starter portis is playing slow and our #2 guy needs carries to get in rythm but he doesnt get the ball enough to get it started.

I VOTED PORTIS b/c he is the better all-around back but i think betts is a better fit for gibbs offense scheme = cluster f*$k

[warriorzpath]

I think Portis is on a different level than Betts. But I don't think he is 100% yet. Until he gets 100%, I would put Betts back there, especially because Betts seems motivated and wants more carries.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

What's wearing him down is the fact that he carried the ball almost 350 times a season for back-to-back seasons. As I've said a number of times, his ypc is way, way, WAY down since leaving Denver, in part because we're trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole by forcing him into an offense that isn't well-designed for his body or talents. He's making it work by compensating with quantity, and that is taking its toll on his body.

Again, this effect is well known in fantasy football circles, but this is a case where the fantasy impact does correlate back to the real game because it directly speaks to a RB's durability and career longevity.

Here's are some of the articles on the topic:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (this one isn't bad)
David Yudkin - RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason) (more FF oriented than "real" NFL based)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part One
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part Two (Playoff Edition) (by far the best articles I've read on the phenomenon)
FootballDocs Fantasy Football - Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production (this one is old but it's interesting to see how their predictions panned out)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

The sheer number of carries in 2005. He always seemed to fall on his shoulders after contact and I thought that it might save his legs a bit.

Well, what happens in the first preseason game he plays following a long offseason following an abusive year? Shoulder subluxation. Is that freak injury? If your shoulders get abused and then you hurt your shoulder?

Then this year with the nagging knee tendonitis and then a sprained knee, and virtually zero effectiveness.

Can a healthy Portis still provide a burst? Maybe, but 6 years into his career, healthy is relative, and that's just not good enough.

He is a high effort guy who can still contibute to this team in so many ways, but I just can't defend him as a running threat any more. I'm almost thinking his best use is short yardage at this point because he always delivers a blow.

Of course, we don't run in short yardage, so I guess the point is moot.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I think Portis is more than a 3rd down, change of pace back that offiss thinks he is. I also still think he is a "running threat" GTripp. But, only time will tell. I admit that I could be wrong, even though I strongly believe that I am right.

[GTripp0012]

And to reiterate, I DON'T know that Betts can do any better. He did have the longest run of the day against Arizona and it should have been a TD.

I do know that Betts is fresh, relatively healthy, and has no theoretical abuse issues. Sellers is the same way...but he can't block for himself.