Rumor from Denver

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I will have my analysis of all 45 Super Bowl winning QB's, how they were acquired, and the status of the various teams at the time of acquisition.

Cliff Notes Version: If a team traded up in the draft to acquire the QB, the QB ultimately performed below expectations.

I assume you are in between jobs...or you have GTripp held captive in the WP Tread Hell Cells??

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by celts32

haha...save the trouble all 45 are not needed! I said my theory is that the QB is more important recently...say since free agency started. Basically every super bowl winning QB since Aikman can be in the study. Since then with few exceptions you need a franchise QB to win a Super bowl.

Actually that wouldn't add to many to those already done:

Elway (Denver 1998, 99): The only modern era "trade-up" that worked to land a elite QB. The anti-Ryan Leaf.

Warner (Rams 2000): In the "lightning strikes" category with Brady.

Trent Dilfer (Ravens 2001): The exception to the rule that you need a franchise QB.

Brady (NE 2002, 04, 05).

Brad Johnson (T Bay 2003): UFA pick-up (from us of course) - Do you consider him a "franchise" QB?

Roethlesburger (Pitt 2006, 09).

P. Manning (Colts 2007).

E. Manning (NYG 2008).

Brees (NO 2010).

Rodgers (G. Bay 2011).

ON THE OTHER HAND, if you look at the teams that made it to the SB but lost, your QB's seem to become much more non-descript: Chris Chandler (Atl), Kerry Collins (NYG 01), Gannon (Oak 03), Delhomme (Carolina 04), Grossman (Chi 07). [At the same time, "franchise" QB's lost (Donovan, McNair, Hasselback) and some won and lost (Farve, P. Manning, Warner, Brady).]

ALL OF THIS SAYS TO ME:
(1) Getting a "Franchise" QB is simply is mostly a matter of luck - so, build a solid team & do things that increase the odds for "luck" to happen ; and
(2) Having a true "Franchise" QB is close to a prerequisite for winning the SB (though not necessarily for just appearing in one).

AND - Whatever you do, never ever ever trade up in the draft for a QB unless his name is John Elway.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Hog1

I assume you are in between jobs...or you have GTripp held captive in the WP Tread Hell Cells??

Naw... I am just one of those lazy government workers that firstdown complains of all the time. After this, I am taking the afternoon off -'cause I can. muhahahahaaaa.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by celts32

Here's the data:

Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
...

All but 2 SB winning QB's since free agency started were franchise QB's. And the 2 exceptions(Johnson & Dilfer) had ALL TIME great defenses. We can argue about how to get one whether it's waiting and hoping or being aggressive...but the main point to remember is that we are not winning a Super Bowl until we find one.

Hadn't done Aikman, Young or Farve in previous post. Just as they lend credence to your "you need a Franchise QB to win the SB" position, I would argue that the nature of their acquisitions lends credence to my "Fine, but don't go chasing rookie QB's in the draft" argument.

Also, except for Kelly against Aikman in 1993, their opposing SB QB's support the idea that you can get to the SB with a more average QB - Humphries (SD 1994); Neil O'Donnell (Pitt. 95); Bledsoe (NE 96).

[celts32]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Hadn't done Aikman, Young or Farve in previous post. Just as they lend credence to your "you need a Franchise QB to win the SB" position, I would argue that the nature of their acquisitions lends credence to my "Fine, but don't go chasing rookie QB's in the draft" argument.

Also, except for Kelly against Aikman in 1993, their opposing SB QB's support the idea that you can get to the SB with a more average QB - Humphries (SD 1994); Neil O'Donnell (Pitt. 95); Bledsoe (NE 96).

Favre was a trade in which they paid more then his original draft position...could be labled as chasing him.

In general i agree that in most instances you shouldn't trade up for QB's...but I still maintain that if Shanny had a QB in mind that he felt strongly was a franchise QB I would do it. I don't just mean the guy he likes the best in a particualr draft...I mean he absolutelty loves the guy...one of the best he's seen in years blah blah blah. Basically the way he admitted feeling about Bradford last year after the draft. If that situation happened again I would be aggressive and make it happen. Thats all I am saying...

[gridironcharlie]

Never sure bet on rumors

[sportscurmudgeon]

Same source that told me about Denver's interest in trading out of the #2 slot in the first place - - and started this thread - - told me this morning that one of the teams that has recently "inquired" about the availability of the pick is:

The Philadelphia Eagles.

Folks, it is still a rumor and nothing more than that. But it would be interesting to see what the Eagles might want to do with a pick that high. My guess would be a cornerback

[skinsfaninok]

The eagles don't need to trade up to 2 lol that wouldn't make any sense IMO. Look how often do picks 1-3 ever get traded? Not very often so I still expect Denver to draft at 2. As for wsh we literally have nothing to give up unless it's our 2nd rounder And a 1st or 2nd again in 2012! Sorry but Gabbert isnt that good IMO

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by celts32

haha...save the trouble all 45 are not needed! I said my theory is that the QB is more important recently...say since free agency started. Basically every super bowl winning QB since Aikman can be in the study. Since then with few exceptions you need a franchise QB to win a Super bowl.

Here's the data:
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs

All but 2 SB winning QB's since free agency started were franchise QB's. And the 2 exceptions(Johnson & Dilfer) had ALL TIME great defenses. We can argue about how to get one whether it's waiting and hoping or being aggressive...but the main point to remember is that we are not winning a Super Bowl until we find one.

How many "franchise QBs" actually won the super bowl while playing at an elite level? The first three on the list qualify, I believe, but something has changed starting with Elway. Elway was out of his prime, Dilfer was on his second team, Brady didn't hit his prime until the middle of the decade. Roethlisberger hasn't achieved the elite level of play until just recently. Johnson was nearing the end of a journeyman career. Eli won it in a season where he wasn't even playing well.

I think there is no clear instance of the cause of winning super bowls being an effect of having a franchise quarterback. I think the correlation exists, but in a couple of cases, the opportunity to develop and achieve "franchise quarterback" designation came, oftentimes, seemingly as the result of playoff success. This happened in the recent cases of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning. It also happened with Aaron Rodgers to an extent: even though he was already a pro-bowl level performer, he won his first playoff game and his first super bowl in the same year. Clearly now, Rodgers is a franchise QB, but even in his case, the super bowl he won was part of the cause of achieving franchise status, and not entirely an effect of having him.

I think when we start to adjust for revisionist history, there are only a couple instances of elite quarterbacks winning a super bowl. Manning in 06, Brees in 09, and then perhaps Brady in 04, Warner in 99, and Rodgers in 10 should also qualify. So that's what, 5 times in the last 14 years that the super bowl winning QB was also a regular season MVP candidate? Seems almost like the frequency has gone down in the last 15 years. Because in the early to mid 90s, it may have been an every year thing.

[GTripp0012]

What I may argue, if I was going to support the "we need a QB at all costs argument" is that the last couple of years (2009 and 2010), the only teams to even make it to the super bowl had franchise QBs having elite years. The last time teams met in the super bowl on the strength of their defenses was 2008.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

The eagles don't need to trade up to 2 lol that wouldn't make any sense IMO. Look how often do picks 1-3 ever get traded? Not very often so I still expect Denver to draft at 2. As for wsh we literally have nothing to give up unless it's our 2nd rounder And a 1st or 2nd again in 2012! Sorry but Gabbert isnt that good IMO

I guess to take Patrick Peterson.

[skinsfaninok]

^ yeah I guess but they can draft the kid from Colorado IMO or go get Nnamdi in FA

[Hog1]

Is it necessary to have...Francise QB's with rare pedigree's?
Or just QB's that play like it on the field? There are of course....MANY variables that lead to stellar play on the part of the QB that are not actually the...QB.

[53Fan]

Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, Trent Dilfer, Dan Marino.

3 Of these 4 QB's are in the HOF and 1 of the 4 has a SB Winners ring.

What's my point?

I haven't a freakin' clue.

[celts32]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

How many "franchise QBs" actually won the super bowl while playing at an elite level? The first three on the list qualify, I believe, but something has changed starting with Elway. Elway was out of his prime, Dilfer was on his second team, Brady didn't hit his prime until the middle of the decade. Roethlisberger hasn't achieved the elite level of play until just recently. Johnson was nearing the end of a journeyman career. Eli won it in a season where he wasn't even playing well.

I think there is no clear instance of the cause of winning super bowls being an effect of having a franchise quarterback. I think the correlation exists, but in a couple of cases, the opportunity to develop and achieve "franchise quarterback" designation came, oftentimes, seemingly as the result of playoff success. This happened in the recent cases of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning. It also happened with Aaron Rodgers to an extent: even though he was already a pro-bowl level performer, he won his first playoff game and his first super bowl in the same year. Clearly now, Rodgers is a franchise QB, but even in his case, the super bowl he won was part of the cause of achieving franchise status, and not entirely an effect of having him.

I think when we start to adjust for revisionist history, there are only a couple instances of elite quarterbacks winning a super bowl. Manning in 06, Brees in 09, and then perhaps Brady in 04, Warner in 99, and Rodgers in 10 should also qualify. So that's what, 5 times in the last 14 years that the super bowl winning QB was also a regular season MVP candidate? Seems almost like the frequency has gone down in the last 15 years. Because in the early to mid 90s, it may have been an every year thing.

I don't realy understand what you are trying to say...maybe you are overanalyizing. everyone on that list other then johnson and Dilfer is clearly a franchise QB. Aikman, Elway, Brady, Ben, favre...that list is a textbook example of a franchise QB.