Make your Case for non-HOFer

[CrustyRedskin]

Pudge Heffelfinger

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

I agree, but that by no means is a lock. Look at my example of Maxie Baughan another 9 Time Pro Bowler at linebacker who also won the NFL Championship in 1960 with the Eagles.

Look how long it took Hanburger to get into the Hall.

Yeah, but he got in. If you reach the pro bowl a minimum of 7 times and are all pro at least 4 of those times, and you have a long successful career-you are a lock to EVENTUALLY make the HOF.

Its getting harder and harder to make all-pro as the population of our country increases, the depth of talent does as well. Dawkins making it 5 times (4 1st team) is astounding, and as making the all pro team becomes more and more difficult the amount that Dawkins made it will be regarded even higher as time goes on.

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

Yeah, but he got in. If you reach the pro bowl a minimum of 7 times and are all pro at least 4 of those times, and you have a long successful career-you are a lock to EVENTUALLY make the HOF.

Its getting harder and harder to make all-pro as the population of our country increases, the depth of talent does as well. Dawkins making it 5 times (4 1st team) is astounding, and as making the all pro team becomes more and more difficult the amount that Dawkins made it will be regarded even higher as time goes on.

I am not disputing your logic at all. There is just a list of guys who 9 pro bowls who are not yet in Canton. Why Dawkins over all of them?

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Speaking of the HOF, any thoughts about Brian Dawkins retirement and whether he'll be a HOF'er? I am leaning towards no given that he has played in the same era as Ed Reed and Polamalu, who are sure HOF'ers.

I say he's a lock. Not necessarily on the first ballot. But the dude was All-pro 5 times...4 of which he was first team. To me that is the most significant thing. But to the people who like longevity, he played in 8 pro bowls and STARTED 16 years in the nfl.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Speaking of the HOF, any thoughts about Brian Dawkins retirement and whether he'll be a HOF'er? I am leaning towards no given that he has played in the same era as Ed Reed and Polamalu, who are sure HOF'ers.

Dawkins also played 5-6 years before Polamalu and Reed played. Dawkins. During his long career, Dawkins went to 9 pro bowls. That alone should put him on the HOF ballot.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

Dawkins also played 5-6 years before Polamalu and Reed played. Dawkins. During his long career, Dawkins went to 9 pro bowls. That alone should put him on the HOF ballot.

True but it will depend on when Reed and/or Polamalu retire. I think there are some good arguments for Dawkins, I just hope it doesn't get to a situation when him and the likes of Reed and/or Polamalu are up for the hall.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

True but it will depend on when Reed and/or Polamalu retire. I think there are some good arguments for Dawkins, I just hope it doesn't get to a situation when him and the likes of Reed and/or Polamalu are up for the hall.

@ Ruhskins- Ed Reed has 57 interceptions during his career. Troy Polamalu has only 29 interceptions. Ed Reed is definitely headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I'm not so sure about the Pittsburgh Steeler. Troy Polamalu plays excellently, but Dawkins did also.

[los panda]

i bet polamalu has a lot more tackles for losses

[skinster]

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

[los panda]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

show that math please

[skinster]

Originally Posted by los panda

show that math please

The math is really nothing more than the average number of HOF inductees per year (roughly 6) multiplied by the average career length of a HOF player (roughly 13). That is the amount of HOF players that should be playing right now. Roughly it should be about 78 players. I was conservative by saying 5 and 12 in my last post, but 6 inductees per year and an average of a 13 year career is more accurate.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

I'm just going to (conservatively) say that there are 5 nfl players inducted to the HOF, whose average career is 12 years, which would mean there are roughly 60 HOF players playing now. I'm going to only include players who have completed 5 or more seasons in this estimation, as with the exceptions of Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Charles Woodson, it was abundantly obvious where each of these players were headed by the end of their 5th season. Under the restriction I should be able to find 35 players who will make the hall.
QBs
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethelssberger
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Eli Manning

RBs
7. Ladanian Tomlinson
8. Adrian Peterson

TEs
9. Tony Gonzolez
10. Antonio Gates or Jason Witten...Grahm/Gronk/injuries will keep one out

WRs
12. Calvin Johnson
13. Andre Johnson
13. Larry Fitzgerald
14. Randy Moss
15. Terrell Owens

OT
16. Joe Thomas

OG
17. Steve Hutchinson

C
18. Nick Mangold

S
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
21. Brian Dawkins

CB
22. Darell Revis
23. Champ Bailey
24. Charles Woodson

ILB
25. Ray Lewis
26. Patrick Willis
28. Brian Urlacher

OLB
29. Demarcus Ware
30. Jason Taylor

DE
31. Jared Allen
32. Dwight Freeney
33. Julius Peppers
34. Richard Seymour

DT
35. Vince Wilfork
36. Haloti Ngata
37. Kevin Williams

I was able to get 37. This seems about right. Taking into consideration that there will be roughly 3 more that will get in that have played 5 years, and taking into consideration that a couple might get injured, those balance out to be null. I also severely undershot this list. 5 players per year is an undershot, and an average career length of 12 years is an undershot. The old players that will get in will make the number of current HOFers a little lower, but not by much as one day the current players will be the old players preventing future players from getting in.

Bottom line, there are at least 60 HOF players playing today, and through Math, its pretty obvious who most of them are going to be. This is obviously not 100% accurate, but I'd be shocked if my list isn't 85% accurate.

[Leader In Sports]

You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.

No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.

And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).