Campbell's numbers dont lie

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

There's also the accuracy issue. You don't see those types of QB's throwing the ball behind their receiver's very often, you don't see them over throwing them very often like JC does. I like JC and think he might be better with a better O-line but facts are facts. Watch the games, he simply throws too high and the receivers have to try and go up and get it. He throws constantly behind receivers and it's blatently obvious with Cooley.

The Favre's, Brees's, River's, Mannings (both) don't throw behind their receivers very often they usually lead them with a pass.

You are right JC's accuracy is not very good. I watched "Playbook" on NFL network the other night. They did a great job of piecing together the highlights of the QB's in last weeks games. What really jumped out at me is the confidence and accuracy of the other QBs'. The top qb's complete passes in to tight or double coverage, no problem. Campbell plays scared to make plays like that.
Say what you want about JC having to change offensive systems/offensive coordinators every year and that his O-line sucks, but he is still not accurate. Either you have it or you don't. I am beginning to think he does not have it.
One other observation: most really good Qb's get really tight with one or two of his receivers. You know the story, they spend all off season together and they know exactly where they are going to be on the field. They can do it with their eyes closed.
Manning and Wayne, Brady and Moss/Welker, even rookie Sanchez is tight with Cotchery. I do not see that with Campbell and any of our receivers.

[rbanerjee23]

Say what you want about brett favre being a great quarterback...how many int's has he thrown, i actually don't think he should get into the hal of fame because as many touchdowns hes thrown and games hes won, the worst mistake of a quarterback is to throw an inerception and favre has made more worst mistakes than anyone else who has ever played in the NFL...

[skinster]

Originally Posted by rbanerjee23

Say what you want about brett favre being a great quarterback...how many int's has he thrown, i actually don't think he should get into the hal of fame because as many touchdowns hes thrown and games hes won, the worst mistake of a quarterback is to throw an inerception and favre has made more worst mistakes than anyone else who has ever played in the NFL...

He is a 3 time mvp...

plus the benefit of throwing a td far outweighs the loss of throwing an int. A td is a definate score, an int just makes it possible for the other team to score quicker

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinster

He is a 3 time mvp...

plus the benefit of throwing a td far outweighs the loss of throwing an int. A td is a definate score, an int just makes it possible for the other team to score quicker

This isn't at all true. It's actually quite the opposite. A lot of really smart people think the absolute value of an INT is somewhere between two and three times the absolute value of a TD pass.

I'm not agreeing with the poster that suggests that Brett Favre should not be in the hall of fame because he has a strong interception tendency. That's not right either. Brett Favre can make up for an interception tendency by being a high-efficiency passer. Lots of completions, lots of touchdowns, few sacks and fumbles. This efficiency seperates Favre from the Donovan McNabb's, Kerry Collins', Daunte Culpeppers of the world, lower-efficiency players who absolutely need to be throwing three times as many TDs as INTs to be worth a roster spot.

Favre's unquestionably a first-ballot hall of famer, but I think he's come to be overrated in recent seasons because people see a player exceeding his relative expectations and then jump to the level of, "he hasn't lost anything". Favre hasn't been a truly MVP-type player since 2001 or 2002 though. The fact that he's had pro-bowl type seasons in recent years has kind of skewed the public opinion of him.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This isn't at all true. It's actually quite the opposite. A lot of really smart people think the absolute value of an INT is somewhere between two and three times the absolute value of a TD pass.

...

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

Well said. I was about ot ask the same thing. Perhaps QBs who throw alot of INTs typically have significantly lower completion rates than other QBs, but thats a different point. Or maybe it has something to do with "momentum" shifting and changing the way the teams perform. However, I look at it the same way you do: A TD is a garaunteed 6 points. An Int isnt. I'd much rather have a QB that threw 3 INTs and 3 TDs per game than one who didn't throw either.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

By really smart people, I was referring to people much smarter than myself.

Now, I've seen versions of this analysis in multiple places, but I'm going to link to research done by pro football reference, because, well, it's easy to find. I think the original groundwork for this was done by economists Palmer, Thorn, and Carroll (also way smarter than me) in the Hidden Game of Football way back in 1988 (so their research predates me...as in me the person, not just my research).

Pro-football-reference.com blog » Why a touchdown is worth ten yards

Pro-football-reference.com blog » Rearview Adjusted Yards per Attempt

Pro-football-reference.com blog » The Best QB of all time?

PFR has always done a 45 yd penalty for INTs and a 10 yd bonus for TDs. They've recently upped their stats to included a 20 yard bonus for TDs because there's a lot of debate about how valuable a TD pass is compared to a pass down to the one yard line, and it's probably really context heavy no matter what, so the estimate could be way off. But not so way off where an INT and a TD would be of equal value.

If they were of equal value, you'd want a quarterback who threw INTs and TDs at a 1:1 rate to pass on pretty much every down, despite the fact that a guy who throws 20 TDs and 20 INTs in the same year is probably not a great quarterback.

A lot of this is conjecture anyway, and your points are completely valid. That's why I'm linking and not disputing.

[skinsfan69]

Right now Farve is playing some of the best ball I've ever seen him play. Mistake free, take what the defense gives you....but he's still making plays w/ his arm at the age of 40. Simply amazing.

[CRedskinsRule]

GTripp,

I looked at those, and it seems less clear. If you say a TD pass is +10 yds, your basically saying that a TD is equal to one Firstdown. That's not a fair value. I think the -45 for an int is probably a good number, to say an INT costs 4 first downs, or half a possession on a sustained drive. But a TD really has to be considered as valuable as a full possession, because the other team would now be one possession behind your team.

Not sure how all the numbers mish mash, but in this case, I think they are doing it more for historical ranks than actual game time value. I might agree in that regards

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

GTripp,

I looked at those, and it seems less clear. If you say a TD pass is +10 yds, your basically saying that a TD is equal to one Firstdown. That's not a fair value. I think the -45 for an int is probably a good number, to say an INT costs 4 first downs, or half a possession on a sustained drive. But a TD really has to be considered as valuable as a full possession, because the other team would now be one possession behind your team.

Not sure how all the numbers mish mash, but in this case, I think they are doing it more for historical ranks than actual game time value. I might agree in that regards

I think the implied is this:

You can already judge a quarterback by his YPA figure. If Brett Favre has a career YPA of 7.0 (which he does), and 9565 attempts (which he does), then you can already predict his TD total using a simple regression with that information.

Now, it turns out that Favre has a career TD rate of 5.0 which is better than roughly 64% of quarterbacks who played over the exact same timeframe as Brett Favre. So, unsurprisingly, Favre is a more valuable player than a hypothetical player who played over the exact same timeframe and threw the same # of passes for the same number of yards. We can all agree that Vinny Testaverde is not the same as Brett Favre, even though he played over the same timeframe, and had similar attempt and YPA numbers up through 2002.

The 10 marginal yards comes from the assumption that you can already account for passing yards by looking at passing yards, but you're trying to determine how valuable that one yard between the one yard line and the goal line is relative to the rest of the field. I think PFR's analysis falls apart a bit because a TD pass off of play action from the one might actually only be worth ten yards of field position (of course, the same pass on third down might be worth three times as much as a one-yard TD pass on first down), while a TD strike from the 25 yard line might be a passing play that would have gone for 40 or 45 yards if the endzone hadn't truncated the play.

I happen to think the 20 yard estimate is a lot closer to the true value of the average TD. But, admittedly, that's based on "feel" and not a lot of evidence. If we establish the value of the average INT = 45 yards, it's tough to say that the last yard between the one yard line and the end zone should be considered equivelent. We know that it's greater than one yard...it's the toughest yard to get. The major key is to seperate "passing touchdown" from "offensive touchdown".

I'm going to add on to this post later, but right now, I'm changing locations.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I looked at those, and it seems less clear. If you say a TD pass is +10 yds, your basically saying that a TD is equal to one Firstdown. That's not a fair value.

Instead of thinking of it as 1 TD = 1 FD, I think it's more important to think of it from a standpoint of the difference in value between a huge play that doesn't go for a TD, and one that does.

Let's look at Portis' 79 yard run from the Chiefs game. He got tackled 10 yards short of the end zone. The difference in value between that 79 yard run and an 89 yd TD run is more than "ten yards", as we ended up not scoring on the drive. But let's assume for a minute that we establish that 1 TD = 1 INT = 45 yards. Applied to the Portis run, the difference between the 79 yard run and a 89 yard TD run would be the same as the difference between the 79 yard run and a 24 yard run (=79-10-45) out to the WAS 34.

While I firmly believe that Portis really should have been able to run that in for a touchdown, I would not trade in the the play that occured for a 50% probability of a score combined with a 50% that Brandon Carr gets off the Randle El block and tackles Portis for a 24 yard gain.

I would however, certainly trade in that 79 yard run if that 50% probability that Portis gets dragged down at the 30 or 35 of KC (70-10-10 or 15).

That's all I think the valuation game really is. A whole lot of trial and error, and what "feels" right. If the PFR analysis falls short, it's because they are only trying to value first down situations, when they need to be looking at all downs. A TD bonus on 3rd and goal from the 15 yard line probably is worth close to 45 yards. I would definately trade 45 yards of field position for the four additional points.

[SolidSnake84]

And i think Brett is finally in an offense that is good enough that he doesnt have to throw the ball 40 times a game...and yeah, after the beginning of this season, no way anybody can question Favre's arm at this point....

[dmek25]

this is over analysis to the nth degree. gtripp, right now, do YOU bring Campbell back?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dmek25

this is over analysis to the nth degree. gtripp, right now, do YOU bring Campbell back?

Can't answer that question until we know who gets cut and what our offensive philosophy will be next year.

Given, however, the sorry state of our QB situation independent of Campbell, I'd say you'd have to. Thing is, if things fall in such a way so that Campbell is an unrestricted free agent, he's almost certainly worth less to us than he is to a team that needs a quarterback but has other offensive pieces in place. Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona, Minnesota, Oakland, etc.

And if he doesn't hit the open market, the only reason you wouldn't bring him back is pure spite. Since a good organization doesn't make decisions based on emotion, it would be an obvious yes, and then the new coaching staff gets to determine who holds the clipboard.

[mlmdub130]

all i know is jc doesn't throw very many int's he is actually very good about that over the years, but at the same time his td totals are pedestrian, while an int is never good i'd take an int a game if he could throw two td's, because i feel with thoose odds we would win.

if you throw more deeper passes and take chances you have more of a chance of throwing a int, but if you have a good qb you also have a better chance of throw a td

and as far as saying farve doesn't deserve to be in the hall because of his int's thats insane, if you average out his totals he averages 18 a season and he has had some bad seasons but he has also had some great seasons.

as a qb you have to take risks, you just have to know when and where, jc never does

not to moention he is in accurate as hell, he could serve a great role as a back up here and i hope he stays here for that purpose