Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I do know that Betts is fresh, relatively healthy, and has no theoretical abuse issues. Sellers is the same way...but he can't block for himself.

Well Betts does have a long history of injuries. Does anyone remember that he almost got cut by Gibbs because he was always falling prey to some injury.

And let me reiterate that I really don't care who is playing in the backfield as long as we are running the ball effectively. I just think Portis is clearly the better option at this point. Hopefully, Buges will coach up the linemen and they will gel as the season continues and this whole issue will become a moot.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Well Betts does have a long history of injuries. Does anyone remember that he almost got cut by Gibbs because he was always falling prey to some injury.

And let me reiterate that I really don't care who is playing in the backfield as long as we are running the ball effectively. I just think Portis is clearly the better option at this point. Hopefully, Buges will coach up the linemen and they will gel as the season continues and this whole issue will become a moot.

Agreed.

[offiss]

Originally Posted by dgack

What's wearing him down is the fact that he carried the ball almost 350 times a season for back-to-back seasons. As I've said a number of times, his ypc is way, way, WAY down since leaving Denver, in part because we're trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole by forcing him into an offense that isn't well-designed for his body or talents. He's making it work by compensating with quantity, and that is taking its toll on his body.

Again, this effect is well known in fantasy football circles, but this is a case where the fantasy impact does correlate back to the real game because it directly speaks to a RB's durability and career longevity.

Here's are some of the articles on the topic:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (this one isn't bad)
David Yudkin - RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason) (more FF oriented than "real" NFL based)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part One
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part Two (Playoff Edition) (by far the best articles I've read on the phenomenon)
FootballDocs Fantasy Football - Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production (this one is old but it's interesting to see how their predictions panned out)

Excellent post!

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

Wow. He sure does. That's awesome. Imagine if he wasn't banged up all offseason/preseason. With Peterson getting dinged today he has a chance for the rushing title if he stays healthy. (A loud, resounding knock on wood).

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

He's also one of 5 backs to be averaging more than 20 carries a game.

His now 4.2 yards a carry is more than acceptable to run with every game. If he can keep up this pace, we should keep feeding him.

If it falls off, we should go back to emphasizing the pass.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

He had a good game. That's two in a row now. But those were way overdue.

For some reason I didn't think it would take until Week 9 to see it.

[CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR]

portis did well today. Finally the last two weeks he done well, but the other 12 weeks he was shit.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR

portis did well today. Finally the last two weeks he done well, but the other 12 weeks he was shit.

12 weeks?

[CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR]

yes his first 100 hundred yard game last week was his first in the last 12 weeks that he played in against the jets

[flashalexb]

Portis. just took him half the season to get back into playing shape

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

It's funny that 2 weeks ago Portis was "washed up," has been "worn down by injury," has "lost his vision," is "no better than a 3rd down back," etc. and now people are saying that he wasn't irredeemable. Eat your crow like a man and admit that you were wrong; Portis's career wasn't done like so many implied or expressly stated.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

It's funny that 2 weeks ago Portis was "washed up," has been "worn down by injury," has "lost his vision," is "no better than a 3rd down back," etc. and now people are saying that he wasn't irredeemable. Eat your crow like a man and admit that you were wrong; Portis's career wasn't done like so many implied or expressly stated.

He's rushed for 333 yards the last 2 games. Not bad for a 3rd down back.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

He's rushed for 333 yards the last 2 games. Not bad for a 3rd down back.

I know this isn't what you guys are specifically calling out, but to me this just proves one of my original theorems -- that prior to the last 2 games, we have been calling the wrong plays for an effective run game with the staff we have.

I think even CP was saying this a few weeks ago, that the playcalling has been anything but productive for him.

I also still think that we're leaning too hard on him and that's dangerous. As I said several posts ago, we are getting CP his yards through quantity -- he's carried a whopping 66 times in the past 2 games! When you consider the most heavily worked RB in the league -- Willie Parker -- gets 23.6 carries a game, I think we should all be a little concerned about CP seeing 30 and 36 carry games.

However, it appears that Ladell's penchant for coughing up the ball in key situations is still very much an issue, so certainly it's difficult to say right now he should be in there instead of Clinton. That said, Portis has the dubious honor of being tied for 8th on the NFC's fumbles leader list (ugh, J-Cam is first), so it's not as though Betts is alone in his woes here.

In any event, IMO, the important numbers of the past two games are the rushing average and the long runs. I hope these continue to climb while the actual number of carries fall, because we are still WAY down the charts on big rush plays and could be doing a lot better in yards per carry.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

He's rushed for 333 yards the last 2 games. Not bad for a 3rd down back.

Betts lost a drive-killing fumble on his only run of the day. We were lucky McNabb gave it right back to us, but Ladell belongs on the bench when CP is healthy.

Makes this poll look pretty stupid.