On Blache

[GTripp0012]

Meanwhile, our real big offensive problems can be summed up by this:

You've heard of the bend but don't break defense? We'll we've got the world's first "Bend but don't score" Offense. We're above average in yards per drive, but 29th in TDs per drive. Obviously, something is amiss here. The rank is a bit misleading, since we've played the two best defenses, and the Giants' defense twice.

This does show a bunch of things. The Offense has much further to go than it could, potentially. It is clearly not inept, but rather, end-zone challenged. The Redskins convert a 1st and 10 into another 1st and 10 2/3 of the time. That's pretty solid. The Redskins convert a possession into a touchdown 14.4% of the time. That's pretty horrific.

Lack of the big play on offense is the single biggest issue here.

Meanwhile, our defenses yards per drive is right on par with it's points per drive: slightly above average against a weak schedule.

[GTripp0012]

And finally, QB Rating of the passers the Skins have played.

NFL average = 81.0

Tony Romo 98.3
Kurt Warner 97.5
Drew Brees 93.9
Eli Manning 86.4
Donovan McNabb 85.2
------------
NFL Average 81.0
------------
Dan Orlovsky 80.3
Ben Roethlisberger 80.2
Joe Flacco 76.9
Mark Bulger 69.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick 68.9
Derek Anderson 66.5
Matt Hasselbeck 57.8

We've faced only three passers in the top fourteen, but we've faced the four worst qualified passers.

[schndr_tdd]

They are tired!!! Tierd of being on the field!!! Tired of the offense sucking the life out of them!!! Tired of losing!!!!!

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by schndr_tdd

They are tired!!! Tierd of being on the field!!! Tired of the offense sucking the life out of them!!! Tired of losing!!!!!

Have you read any of the posts in this thread?

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The first bolded part just isn't true at all and I don't think there's anything you can find to defend it.

But I do think good is a matter of expectation. As a whole, run defense+pass defense, I think we are better than average. I think we SHOULD be a little bit, if not a lot better than we are.

The second bolded part, I know you are just speculating, but we're giving up almost as many big plays as we were in 2006 (defined as 20+ yards, perhaps you are thinking much longer). Mostly, because Blache's blitzes get picked up so easily that we can't defend the deep ins and seams long enough.

We also just don't create any sort of negative plays with his schemes. We're alright at intercepting passes, some better, some worse than us, but we don't get the sacks because he's predictable, and we never strip fumbles (which I don't think is his fault necessarily, but it's true). We rank 30th in forced fumbles per drive, and 29th in adjusted sack rate.

Obviously you've got a great handle on things and do a great job breaking down the games. I think in the bolded portion above you identify the central issue quite succinctly. I don't have the numbers (and can't find them) but maybe you can marshal them for me. My sense is that the Redskins actually blitz quite often (I'd bet they are up among the league leaders) but their blitzes are largely vanilla. They don't run many zone dogs, few complex stunts, and when they have DBs coming they often clue. So they are bringing extra people, but not really putting pressure on the opposing OLine and QB (the way other teams do to the Redskins). The people that get pressured are actually the DBs on the back end who get manned up while the QB faces minimal pressure because the defense rarely creates quick pressure despite bringing extra people.

So my question is, how often do the Redskins bring extra pressure (you break this down every week, do you have the cumulative stats?). Do you have any idea how the number of Redskins blitzes stacks up to other teams in the league? Is Blache bringing extra people in order to stop the run or are they actually trying to pressure the passer (i.e. are the bringing people on 1st and 2nd down in running situations or are they mostly in obvious passing downs and distances?)

We heard during the summer that Blache preferred to run a simplified defense. Few exotic blitzes, focus on fundamentals, stop the run, defend the pass on the back end with DBs. Instead, what we have gotten is a team that blitzes often (albeit with few exotic blitzes), still generates little pressure, and doesn't do a very good job of getting off the field in key third downs. I'm reminded of a passage that Gregg Easterbrook had from earlier in the season after the Skins managed to lose to the Rams:

"Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! No. 1: Last week, TMQ praised new Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Blache for "using conservative, responsibility-oriented schemes with hardly any of the blitzing or exotic fronts that bobbleheads in the booth always extol." With Washington leading St. Louis 17-16, Les Mouflons faced third-and-13 on their 41 with 1:13 remaining. To that point in the game, St. Louis had just 158 yards of total offense. If Washington simply plays straight defense, a stop is likely. Instead, Blache called not just a safety blitz but a double safety blitz. Speedster Dennis Avery was single-covered on a deep go route for a 43-yard completion, and the Rams kicked the winning field goal with two seconds showing."

[maroonandblack30]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Sorry for going over your head. I hope there was something in there that you learned from my argument, even if you disagree with my conclusion.

Do you really get paid to break down film?

Do you break down actual "game film" or just a copy of the TV broadcast?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

........someone outside for the DC position, possibly Keith Butler (Steelers LB coach), or Mike Waufle (Giants DL coach). We need some fresh blood injected into the defense,...

QFT

He said this in another thread and i didn't want to steal his idea, BUT if Blache were to be replaced these are the only types of coaches i would like to see:
coaches that have pedigree from a proven aggresive defensiv system

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The first bolded part just isn't true at all and I don't think there's anything you can find to defend it.

But I do think good is a matter of expectation. As a whole, run defense+pass defense, I think we are better than average. I think we SHOULD be a little bit, if not a lot better than we are.

The second bolded part, I know you are just speculating, but we're giving up almost as many big plays as we were in 2006 (defined as 20+ yards, perhaps you are thinking much longer). Mostly, because Blache's blitzes get picked up so easily that we can't defend the deep ins and seams long enough.

We also just don't create any sort of negative plays with his schemes. We're alright at intercepting passes, some better, some worse than us, but we don't get the sacks because he's predictable, and we never strip fumbles (which I don't think is his fault necessarily, but it's true). We rank 30th in forced fumbles per drive, and 29th in adjusted sack rate.

Oh really?? Sigh... Tripp I just think you can never admit when you're wrong. You try and over analyze everything with stats, and while sometimes you bring up solid points, on this subject you're just flat out wrong. Blache is not the main reason we are where we are. It's the offense that scores 10 points a game. If you can't see that then so be it. But as I said, there are experts that played in the NFL that follow this team who are basically saying the same thing.

There have been many instances where the offense goes three and out. It happened last week against the freaking Bengals. No first downs til midway through the 2nd q. Inexcuseable! I remember watching Pitts when Tomlin on side kicks it to start the game off. Why? Cause he knows his defense has his back. We got the ball a few times deep in Pittsburgh territory and could not get first downs. Or the first game of the year.....no first downs til the end of the half. I could go on and on.

Look, I'm not saying our defense is perfect. We need to create turnovers and maybe doing more exotic blitz packages will help. But to be honest, I've seen numerous times where our guys were in positions to get turnovers yet we simply don't make the play. Rogers could've changed the Pitts. game around if he simply catches the ball. How many INTS did we drop last week? Or in first game of the year? To me that's more frustating than not trying to hide blitzes. If our guys could just catch the damn ball.

[maroonandblack30]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Oh really?? Sigh... Tripp I just think you can never admit when you're wrong. You try and over analyze everything with stats, and while sometimes you bring up solid points, on this subject you're just flat out wrong. Blache is not the main reason we are where we are. It's the offense that scores 10 points a game. If you can't see that then so be it. But as I said, there are experts that played in the NFL that follow this team who are basically saying the same thing.

There have been many instances where the offense goes three and out. It happened last week against the freaking Bengals. No first downs til midway through the 2nd q. Inexcuseable! I remember watching Pitts when Tomlin on side kicks it to start the game off. Why? Cause he knows his defense has his back. We got the ball a few times deep in Pittsburgh territory and could not get first downs. Or the first game of the year.....no first downs til the end of the half. I could go on and on.

Look, I'm not saying our defense is perfect. We need to create turnovers and maybe doing more exotic blitz packages will help. But to be honest, I've seen numerous times where our guys were in positions to get turnovers yet we simply don't make the play. Rogers could've changed the Pitts. game around if he simply catches the ball. How many INTS did we drop last week? Or in first game of the year? To me that's more frustating than not trying to hide blitzes. If our guys could just catch the damn ball.

Agree...

Bottom line = our D is in the top 5 in overall defense. To me, there is no need to analyze any further. QB ratings aside I can only think of one game where a QB had a really good game against the Skins (Eli in the 2nd matchup)

I appreciate Gtripps insight but I don't think you have to dig that deep to figure out that the defense is pretty good.

Like mentioned before, I have heard at least two former players say the Skins have "championship quality defense" B-Mitch was one of them.

If guys who actually suited up in the league say their good, thats good enough for me.

"Neutral" stats are fine, but I remember a while ago some math wiz came out with a study that said football teams should go for it on every 4th down because statistics showed that they would succeed in the long run..... I'm just saying.

[SmootSmack]

I think it's in the fine print that we're getting this debate. In my opinion, and I think skinsfan69's, if you have 1st and 10 and three plays later you're punting at 4th and 4 the fact that you just gained 6 yards is kinda moot. But for GTripp, that's 6 yards that the offense has moved the ball.

[maroonandblack30]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I think it's in the fine print that we're getting this debate. In my opinion, and I think skinsfan69's, if you have 1st and 10 and three plays later you're punting at 4th and 4 the fact that you just gained 6 yards is kinda moot. But for GTripp, that's 6 yards that the offense has moved the ball.

I think that is an excellent summation!

Some people just look at things in totally different ways. No harm.

[MrJL]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Obviously you've got a great handle on things and do a great job breaking down the games. I think in the bolded portion above you identify the central issue quite succinctly. I don't have the numbers (and can't find them) but maybe you can marshal them for me. My sense is that the Redskins actually blitz quite often (I'd bet they are up among the league leaders) but their blitzes are largely vanilla. They don't run many zone dogs, few complex stunts, and when they have DBs coming they often clue. So they are bringing extra people, but not really putting pressure on the opposing OLine and QB (the way other teams do to the Redskins). The people that get pressured are actually the DBs on the back end who get manned up while the QB faces minimal pressure because the defense rarely creates quick pressure despite bringing extra people.

So my question is, how often do the Redskins bring extra pressure (you break this down every week, do you have the cumulative stats?). Do you have any idea how the number of Redskins blitzes stacks up to other teams in the league? Is Blache bringing extra people in order to stop the run or are they actually trying to pressure the passer (i.e. are the bringing people on 1st and 2nd down in running situations or are they mostly in obvious passing downs and distances?)

We heard during the summer that Blache preferred to run a simplified defense. Few exotic blitzes, focus on fundamentals, stop the run, defend the pass on the back end with DBs. Instead, what we have gotten is a team that blitzes often (albeit with few exotic blitzes), still generates little pressure, and doesn't do a very good job of getting off the field in key third downs. I'm reminded of a passage that Gregg Easterbrook had from earlier in the season after the Skins managed to lose to the Rams:

"Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! No. 1: Last week, TMQ praised new Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Blache for "using conservative, responsibility-oriented schemes with hardly any of the blitzing or exotic fronts that bobbleheads in the booth always extol." With Washington leading St. Louis 17-16, Les Mouflons faced third-and-13 on their 41 with 1:13 remaining. To that point in the game, St. Louis had just 158 yards of total offense. If Washington simply plays straight defense, a stop is likely. Instead, Blache called not just a safety blitz but a double safety blitz. Speedster Dennis Avery was single-covered on a deep go route for a 43-yard completion, and the Rams kicked the winning field goal with two seconds showing."

Problem there is on that blitz one of the safeties blitzed late. I think it was Moore. Rookie mistake.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by schndr_tdd

They are tired!!! Tierd of being on the field!!! Tired of the offense sucking the life out of them!!! Tired of losing!!!!!

Thats not true. We have won the TOP battle (and in most cases by a significant margin) in nearly every game in the first 45 minutes of play. The problem has been, our defense falls apart in the 4th quarter and gives up long drives... our defense is not tired.

[MrJL]

Originally Posted by maroonandblack30

Agree...

Bottom line = our D is in the top 5 in overall defense. To me, there is no need to analyze any further. QB ratings aside I can only think of one game where a QB had a really good game against the Skins (Eli in the 2nd matchup)

I appreciate Gtripps insight but I don't think you have to dig that deep to figure out that the defense is pretty good.

Like mentioned before, I have heard at least two former players say the Skins have "championship quality defense" B-Mitch was one of them.

If guys who actually suited up in the league say their good, thats good enough for me.

"Neutral" stats are fine, but I remember a while ago some math wiz came out with a study that said football teams should go for it on every 4th down because statistics showed that they would succeed in the long run..... I'm just saying.

There are some key questions here.

1. Will the offense improve having to once again start from scratch if Zorn is fired?

2. Will the defense improve with a new coach who places more emphasis on pass rush?

3. If Blache is retained will his sacks don't matter philosophy allow him to push the front office to attempt to improve the D's main weakness the defensive line?

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

First of all, what makes you think I'm not paid?

Though I want to respect the fact that you were able to type so much, clearly care about what your saying, and I want to move away from things that might seem like personal attacks. That doesn't do me any good, as you're clearly more competant than the average fan I come across. I'm sure you didn't need me to tell you this, just know that I am aware of it.

But, measuring performance retroactively can be done quite easily, and I don't see why I should admit or consider I'm wrong when context-neutral statistics, film-study, and majority opinion all say that the defense has some issues. So far, the only reasons to believe I might be wrong is because you, SF69, and a bunch of "experts" cited by you and SF69 believe I'm totally off my rocker. Thus, this debate.

I am surprised that you haven't realized that your argument doesn't get stronger the more you try to simplify things.

I think you believe this:

• Points are the only stat that matters
• Other stats besides points that don't matter can be manipulated, and will be manipulated, by you to try to show that QBs struggle against us.
• Our offense doesn't score enough points to give our defense a fair chance.
• Only one QB (Fitzpatrick) was better against us, than his season average.
• Leftwich's absurd performance doesn't count against our defense because he hasn't played at any other point this season.
• Bulger's game against us wasn't good before his final drive.
• Bulger's final drive also doesn't count, because Leigh Torrence was in coverage, and you know, they cut him (and they've been worse since they cut him, but likely not because of him).
• Romo and Manning both have struggled against us, because Manning's completion percentage is down, and both of their QB ratings are down.
• Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck are great QBs, and the fact that they've sucked all year has nothing to do with how well we defended them.
• You've talked to a "real" film watcher, and the tooth fairy, I mean film watcher told you that Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck both credited the Redskins pass defense for everything that has gone wrong with them all year.
• The Detroit Lions have more points scored than the Redskins. According to the first statement, this means you believe that the Detroit Lions actually have a better offense than the Redskins. Well then.

First of all, if you truly believe points scored is the end game, you wouldn't have tried to elaborate on that. Obviously, your smart enough to know you are wrong there. Just in case, though, this guy who writes for a more respected blog than you or anyone you know, puts that to rest quickly.



So, points allowed is a good start, but in the Redskins' case, it's misleading for all those factors. The Redskins offense has given up a single TD all year, and the special teams only two TDs. Mostly, the Redskins and their opponents prefer to keep the ball on the ground, which cuts down the amount of attempts a team gets on our defense.

Furthermore, you may have noticed that my point was "The Redskins pass defense is below average." Sadly, this makes stats like PPG largely unhelpful, because you aren't separating run defense from pass defense when you use that.

I suggest you look at these drive stats before you post anymore. It takes the TOP argument off the table (but not the field position argument). You'll notice the Redskins defense ranks first in punts per drive. Obviously, that's good, and it's a big component of why we give up so few points per game: no team forces more punts than the Redskins. But you'll also notice that we rank 10th in points per drive, and 12th in TDs per drive. Now look at the numbers. We are closer to #25 (Jacksonville) in points per drive than we are to #1 (Baltimore), and we are closer to # 26 (Oakland) in TDs per drive than we are to #1 (Pittsburgh).

This isn't even including the fact that we are in the top seven in Ave. Starting field position.

Here's the point: when you break the points per game stat down, you realize that we're really not that good at preventing points. NONE of this accounts for the sub-par quality of our competition, which against the pass, is significantly below average, as you already know.

-----------------------------------

So now that you see the fallacy in using points per game as the be-all-end-all (I hope), let's look at some of your other less-ridiculous arguments.



Look. You're correct in saying that QBs struggle to get into a rhythm against the Redskins this year. I think they have all year. Problem is, I contest that (statisically), six times this year, a QB had better than average game against the Redskins. I'm going to make a case for a 7th, Romo (Week 10). Romo was statistically below average in that game, but he beat us in that one at the end, but the guy couldn't even grip the football in that game. He should have been shut out.

And I think you'll agree that the product is often below expectations.

Week 5, Donovan McNabb
Throws for 6.8 yards per attempt, and no picks. That is his season average in YPA, but he's got ten INTs this year. I feel like we should have forced at least one turnover in this one.

Week 6, Marc Bulger
Throws for 5.2 yards per attempt, and no picks. Bulger has 12 picks this year. We got none. In this game, one INT wins it. That's on the defense. His season average in yards per attempt is about 6.0. Above average day when you look at the efficiency for the defense, but where is the one big play when you need it? Not to be found.

Week 8, Dan Orlovsky
Another no turnover performance from our "top ten" passing defense. This time against the Lions, who apparently have a better offense than we do. Orlovsky threw for a league average 6.4 yards per attempt. According to the same measure, Orlovsky is a league average QB. Sensing a trend here? Where is the defense being elite when we really need it?

Week 9, Byron Leftwich
Totally not contesting the point that Roethlisberger was terrible against us in the first half of this one. Given. The guy's game is very, very flawed, and I thought Blache exposed it well. Of course, to NOT change our scheme when they change their QB is probably his biggest flaw to date as our coordinator. Leftwich only threw ten times, for a ridiculous 13 yards per throw. If we compare him to Roethlisberger's average (6.9), this is totally inexcusable.

Oh yeah, no INTs.

Week 11, Tony Romo
Here's the one where I'm going outside what the stats say. The stats say that Romo was bad in this one. He got picked off twice. Thanks DHall, and Rocky. Here's the problem: a guy with a huge cast on his hand who cannot throw downfield accurately should NOT be producing 7.3 YPA against you. Sorry. That's ridiculous. A "top ten" pass defense would never allow that. The argument that we actually played well in this game is "well, but it's Tony Romo, and he's really good!" And the counter-argument is "He's got a giant ****ing cast on his hand and can't throw a football except to his running back".

Whom, of course, was hardly covered all game.

Week 13, Eli Manning
This was a stupid oversight on your part. This was the real, real poor performance by the pass D. Manning threw for 9 yards an attempt. Nine. 9.0. You aren't in the game when that happens. Only Leftwich was more effective than this. We picked him off once, which is about the expectation for Manning. So we forced the turnover, might have been able to force another if it weren't for Springs, and those combined might have kept us in the game.

But seriously, if you went into this game thinking we might have a top ten passing defense (myself included), you came out thinking we were terrible.

Week 15, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Flacco had a very average day, so I skipped him. You admitted that Fitzpatrick was better than he should have been. Which is correct, he was. I don't have any idea why the Week 2 and 3 games weigh higher in your mind than this one does, but I'm not really following your logic for a lot of things.

So I'm contesting that we've performed below average expectations on pass defense seven times out of fourteen games. That's 50%. Which was my point all along.

Problem is, in the seven games where I agree with you that we've overachieved average expectations on pass defense, all of the really impressive ones came in September. Since then, we rattled Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, and Joe Flacco struggled against us.

To me, that's just not enough to say that we are "top ten" or even average. I think the total product, including September, is pretty close to if not better than average, but we aren't that team any more. Blache is more predictable, IMO. We have Hall instead of Torrence. Mike Green instead of Doughty. Blades instead of Marcus. Lots of injuries on the DL.

We're just not a good pass defense at this point, and this season will not be remembered as one where we shut down opposing QBs. It's something we did a few times. But not with anywhere near the consistency you seem to think we did.

I'm sorry that there's no one metric that you would understand that says I'm right and your wrong. I'd love to have something conclusive to just end the argument. But common sense, combined with statistical analysis says what you believe is way off base. That's what I believe.

OK my turn to respond to your comments...

“First of all, what makes you think I'm not paid?”
* You are? By whom?

You say that I “Other stats besides points that don't matter can be manipulated, and will be manipulated, by you to try to show that QBs struggle against us.”
* Talk about manipulation, all of the sudden you start using yards per attempt (?) and a lack of INTs to use as your main source of ammo. Doesn't QB Rating account for both of these and more to give you an idea of the OVERALL performance? Also, in one breath you say McNabb had a good day because he didn't throw an INT, then in the next breath you discredit the 2 INTs we had against Romo and he had a good day because of yards per attempt??

You go on to say that Roethlisberger has “sucked all year”
* He has? He had a 3 game stretch where he struggled. You take those away and he has completed over 60% of his passes and has a 14 TDs to only 4 INTs in the other 11 games. Yes, I realize you'll discredit this because I am excusing 3 games. But in your argument, you throw out the Saints/Cardinal games because we were playing well then, right? So he played bad for 3 games out of 14. Not only that, but let's not talk like morons, especially if we are trying to have an intellectual conversation by acting like he sucks, when EVERYONE knows he doesn't.

OK. Now you talk about points allowed not being important and mention someone I've never heard of making a point that actually SUPPORTS the fact that our defense IS above average and NOT the reason for our misery this year.

He says that ”if your QB throws a pick-six or your special teams allowed a score, that shouldn’t hurt the defense.” Thanks. That helps. So our defense is giving up only 17.5 points per game!!

You then say to look at points per drive and state "But you'll also notice that we rank 10th in points per drive, and 12th in TDs per drive. Now look at the numbers. We are closer to #25 (Jacksonville) in points per drive than we are to #1 (Baltimore), and we are closer to # 26 (Oakland) in TDs per drive than we are to #1 (Pittsburgh)."
* How exactly is 10th in the league closer to 25th than 1st? How is being in the top 10 bad? ... sheesh, this is an example of the stttrreeettcchhhiinnggg you have been doing.

Your next quote "Problem is, I contest that (statisically), six times this year, a QB had better than average game against the Redskins." and we get brought back to the Bulger game.
* Mark Bulger had 93 yards passing and your all important 3.7 yards per attempt (that is AWFUL by the way, right?) through 59 minutes of the game and with 1:06 left in the game he underthrows a desperation chuck, the receiver adjusts to the ball, Torrance falls down, and now Bulger had a great day and picked us apart?? ... sttttrrrreettchhhhh

* I already mentioned how YOU manipulated the McNabb/Romo games... but to elaborate on this HUGE excuse you give Romo for his "can't grip the ball" routine... you do realize the very next week he threw for 341yds and 3TDs right? yeah, that thumb was barely hanging on.

* Manning. Another time where after going on and on in other games saying "no INTs" like that was the sole reason we sucked, you discredit that we DID pick him off. Also, he had the average day in regards to completion % and QB Rating, but threw the ball 34 times to get the 300yds because we were playing the run all day, which was obvious to even us pions who don't get paid to watch film.

And finally you say "But common sense, combined with statistical analysis says what you believe is way off base."

* Common sense & statistical analysis is way off base? Let me remind you that the two points we have been debating are that A) Our defense is at least equally to blame for lack of success this year and B) our pass defense is below average (these are things YOU have said) You have supported this with:

* This point is big. You just rambled on and on asserting that the most imprtant gauges of a pass defense is the opposing QB's yards per attempt & our INTs. Doesn't the QB Rating, which I have used all along ACCOUNT FOR THESE??

* Points per game allowed do not matter. MY common sense is way off base?

* Mark Bulger had a good game against us. MY statistical analysis is way off base?

Look, we obviously just have different opinions and will never convince the other that our way of thinking is better. But, EVERY argument you make is not over-analyzed, it's taking parts of this and that and peicing it together to support your argument... not a solid foundation and everytime you respond, I am pretty sure it gets toppled back down (just for you to find more junk to pile up again.