Make your Case for non-HOFer

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

True but it will depend on when Reed and/or Polamalu retire. I think there are some good arguments for Dawkins, I just hope it doesn't get to a situation when him and the likes of Reed and/or Polamalu are up for the hall.

@ Ruhskins- Ed Reed has 57 interceptions during his career. Troy Polamalu has only 29 interceptions. Ed Reed is definitely headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I'm not so sure about the Pittsburgh Steeler. Troy Polamalu plays excellently, but Dawkins did also.

[los panda]

i bet polamalu has a lot more tackles for losses

[skinster]

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

[los panda]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

show that math please

[skinster]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

I'm just going to (conservatively) say that there are 5 nfl players inducted to the HOF, whose average career is 12 years, which would mean there are roughly 60 HOF players playing now. I'm going to only include players who have completed 5 or more seasons in this estimation, as with the exceptions of Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Charles Woodson, it was abundantly obvious where each of these players were headed by the end of their 5th season. Under the restriction I should be able to find 35 players who will make the hall.
QBs
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethelssberger
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Eli Manning

RBs
7. Ladanian Tomlinson
8. Adrian Peterson

TEs
9. Tony Gonzolez
10. Antonio Gates or Jason Witten...Grahm/Gronk/injuries will keep one out

WRs
12. Calvin Johnson
13. Andre Johnson
13. Larry Fitzgerald
14. Randy Moss
15. Terrell Owens

OT
16. Joe Thomas

OG
17. Steve Hutchinson

C
18. Nick Mangold

S
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
21. Brian Dawkins

CB
22. Darell Revis
23. Champ Bailey
24. Charles Woodson

ILB
25. Ray Lewis
26. Patrick Willis
28. Brian Urlacher

OLB
29. Demarcus Ware
30. Jason Taylor

DE
31. Jared Allen
32. Dwight Freeney
33. Julius Peppers
34. Richard Seymour

DT
35. Vince Wilfork
36. Haloti Ngata
37. Kevin Williams

I was able to get 37. This seems about right. Taking into consideration that there will be roughly 3 more that will get in that have played 5 years, and taking into consideration that a couple might get injured, those balance out to be null. I also severely undershot this list. 5 players per year is an undershot, and an average career length of 12 years is an undershot. The old players that will get in will make the number of current HOFers a little lower, but not by much as one day the current players will be the old players preventing future players from getting in.

Bottom line, there are at least 60 HOF players playing today, and through Math, its pretty obvious who most of them are going to be. This is obviously not 100% accurate, but I'd be shocked if my list isn't 85% accurate.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by los panda

show that math please

The math is really nothing more than the average number of HOF inductees per year (roughly 6) multiplied by the average career length of a HOF player (roughly 13). That is the amount of HOF players that should be playing right now. Roughly it should be about 78 players. I was conservative by saying 5 and 12 in my last post, but 6 inductees per year and an average of a 13 year career is more accurate.

[Leader In Sports]

You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

You are forgetting the LONG list of guys who haven't made the HOF but are eligible now. As a Steeler fan let's just look at Bettis. You can also look at Monk as an example. There is a back log of greats waiting their turn to get into Canton, so your Hall of Very Good just doesn't cut it.

No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

No, I'm not forgetting anyone. I know that. But I also recognize that these guys will be put on that list one day, and these will be the guys getting in at the end of their eligibility, just like Monk did. It is the Hall of the very good, no ifs ands or butts about it.

If Bettis gets in, that just proves its the hall of the very good. Over his career, the guy had 3.9 yards per carry....that's atrocious. He averaged 7 tds/year...doing better at the end of his career. He didn't ever catch the ball, and he wasn' good with ball security.

What's his claim to fame? He was fat, played forever, and was given the ball alot. Didn't do a whole lot of good when he got it though.

And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

And he is something like the 5th or 7th ALL TIME leading rusher in the NFL.

fyi - insulting Bettis to a Steeler fan is saying Monk should have never made the HOF to a Redskin fan. (before I get jumped on, Monk should have been a first ballot guy).

I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day.

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.

[Meks]

I like the bus ... but he'll wait a while and nit certain he makes it... in the voters wacky view

[Leader In Sports]

Originally Posted by skinster

I can't speak to what era Monk played in, so I don't have much to compare him to. But if you look at his production, he has a career high of 8 tds and only five 1,0000 yd seasons. Doesn't look "great" to me, unless that was somehow good for WRs in his day.

Really the argument that seems to be going on here is cumulative career numbers vs impact of season by season. I'm of the camp that a player that plays at an elite level for around 7 years or so should be considered to the HOF. I don't believe that a player playing longer and thus upping his numbers should improve his status in the HOF at all. Bettis might be 6th on the all time rushing list (although he is 18th on yds from scrimmage), but he didn't have more than 4 good seasons in his entire career...and only 3 of them were with the steelers.

And Monk was the all time leading receiver upon his retirement.

Yes, the HOF is a look at your body of work, not just a portion of it.

[MTK]

Looking at the considerable backlog of well qualified players, I find it hard to say the Hall is just for the very good.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Leader In Sports

And Monk was the all time leading receiver upon his retirement.

Yes, the HOF is a look at your body of work, not just a portion of it.

so if I'm a WR who plays for 20 seasons and gets 800 yards every year, I deserve to be in the HOF?

I know that is how the hall works. I just don't think that makes a player great. Thats why I call it the Hall of the very good.

The backlog is there because very good players keep getting inducted, and very good players are on the backlog.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinster

so if I'm a WR who plays for 20 seasons and gets 800 yards every year, I deserve to be in the HOF?

I know that is how the hall works. I just don't think that makes a player great. Thats why I call it the Hall of the very good.

The backlog is there because very good players keep getting inducted, and very good players are on the backlog.

The Hall represents a pretty small % of players, 267 are in the Hall now. When you consider how many players have come and gone, not sure how you can say these guys were just very good.